{"schema_version":"1.0","type":"daily_commodity_report","available":true,"name":"Sharemaestro Cocoa Daily Commodity Report","edition":"2026-10-11","price_as_of":"2026-10-09","market":{"name":"Cocoa","slug":"cocoa","group":"Softs","unit":"USD per metric ton"},"current_read":{"state":{"label":"Early improvement","headline":"Cocoa has positive weekly Market Dynamics, but its price trend has not yet turned upward."},"headline":"Cocoa has positive weekly Market Dynamics, but its price trend has not yet turned upward.","summary":"The latest completed close is 5,671.00 USD per metric ton. The Trend Signal is inactive, Relative Strength is +0.7. Weekly Market Dynamics is +0.242 for the week ending 09 Oct 2026. This week is +0.0% through 5 completed sessions; across 20 sessions, price changed -4.4%."},"price":{"completed_close":5671.0,"recent_performance_pct":{"1_day":0.10591350397175514,"5_days":0.017636684303345973,"20_days":-4.415978425754252,"60_days":8.72315950920246,"252_days":-5.483333333333329},"current_week":{"week_start":"2026-10-05","through":"2026-10-09","sessions":5,"return_pct":0.017636684303345973,"up_sessions":3,"down_sessions":2,"unchanged_sessions":0,"session_moves":[{"day":"2026-10-05","close":5867.0,"return_pct":3.4744268077601337},{"day":"2026-10-06","close":5700.0,"return_pct":-2.846429180160215},{"day":"2026-10-07","close":5582.0,"return_pct":-2.070175438596489},{"day":"2026-10-08","close":5665.0,"return_pct":1.486922250089573},{"day":"2026-10-09","close":5671.0,"return_pct":0.10591350397175514}],"previous_week_start":"2026-09-28","previous_week_end":"2026-10-02","previous_sessions":5,"previous_return_pct":0.9076348104644971,"change_vs_previous_week_pct_points":-0.8899981261611511,"headline":"Price is higher this week, but momentum has slowed from last week.","detail":"Price is +0.02% across 5 completed sessions this week. The previous completed week returned +0.91%. The market is -3.39 percentage points versus its group this week.","tone":"mixed","group_return_pct":3.4042591837430303,"relative_to_group_pct_points":-3.3866224994396843}},"readings":{"trend":{"state":"Inactive","value":5806.133333},"fair_value":4602.878205,"relative_strength":{"value":0.748299,"state":"Leading"},"market_dynamics":{"value":0.24157,"timeframe":"weekly","as_of":"2026-10-09","state":"Supportive"}},"current_setup":{"stance":"Watching for improvement","path":"Some readings are improving. Price still needs to confirm an upward trend.","trigger":"A completed Trend Signal above the current Trend Line near 5806.13 USD per metric ton, backed by positive weekly Market Dynamics.","failure":"Renewed price weakness with weekly Market Dynamics and relative strength both below zero.","risk":"Use completed-session confirmation and allow for the normal volatility of this market; intraday movement alone does not change the report state.","scenarios":[{"label":"Constructive path","condition":"A completed Trend Signal above the current Trend Line near 5806.13 USD per metric ton, backed by positive weekly Market Dynamics.","meaning":"Confirmation would favour trend continuation or a completed repair rather than an anticipatory entry.","tone":"supportive"},{"label":"Holding pattern","condition":"Price remains near its current structure while confirming layers stay mixed.","meaning":"The market stays on watch; patience preserves the edge because there is no need to force a direction.","tone":"mixed"},{"label":"Failure path","condition":"Renewed price weakness with weekly Market Dynamics and relative strength both below zero.","meaning":"The setup weakens and the defensive interpretation takes priority until a new completed repair develops.","tone":"negative"}]},"positioning":{"label":"Re-entry capacity","title":"Positioning is light enough to leave room for a confirmed recovery","summary":"Managed money is net -6.0% of open interest, at percentile 14 of its three-year range. The latest net shift was +2.12 percentage points.","edge":"If price structure improves, fresh participation or short covering could reinforce the move because positioning is not crowded.","next_signal":"A completed Trend Signal with positive weekly Market Dynamics, followed by stable or rising net exposure, would turn positioning into confirmation.","risk":"COT is published with a delay and describes trader groups, not a timed entry. Crowding can persist before it unwinds."},"producer_positioning":{"title":"The latest producer move is unusually large, but still needs price confirmation","detail":"Its magnitude ranks at percentile 88 of retained weekly shifts. The strongest retained horizon is 4 weeks, with 60% directional alignment across 5 independent samples.","implication":"The sample is too small and inconsistent to treat producer hedging as a forecast. Use it as a warning or confirmation layer beside price, never as the trade by itself."},"related_markets":{"title":"Coffee is the clearest current confirmation market","detail":"The 52-week return correlation is +0.36. A matching move adds context; a divergence may indicate a relative-value move rather than a broad group signal. The strongest retained macro link is Crude oil at -0.35, but it remains descriptive and can change.","action":"Use related markets to confirm or challenge the thesis; do not use correlation alone as the entry trigger."},"publication_boundary":"Observed market data and finished Sharemaestro readings only. Formulas, components, model features, thresholds, weights, source identifiers and calculation workings are not published.","source_coverage":{"commodity_intelligence":{"available":true,"as_of":"2026-10-09","cadence":"Completed daily sessions"},"weekly_exchange":{"available":true,"as_of":"2026-10-09","cadence":"Completed weekly evidence"}},"weekly_exchange":{"name":"Cocoa","group":"Softs","as_of":"2026-10-09","completed_close":5665.0,"recent_performance_pct":{"1_weeks":-0.0882,"4_weeks":-4.5171,"12_weeks":2.3857,"52_weeks":-3.1293},"readings":{"trend":{"state":"Active"},"fair_value":6969.794872,"relative_strength":{"value":0.643769,"state":"Leading"},"market_dynamics":{"value":0.24157,"state":"Supportive"},"next_week_view":{"direction":"positive","probability_pct":60.0224}}},"canonical_url":"https://sharemaestro.com/commodities/assets/cocoa/report/","distributions":{"html":"https://sharemaestro.com/commodities/assets/cocoa/report/","pdf":"https://sharemaestro.com/commodities/assets/cocoa/report/download.pdf","json":"https://sharemaestro.com/commodities/assets/cocoa/report/data.json"},"citation":"Sharemaestro, Cocoa Daily Commodity Report, 2026-10-11, https://sharemaestro.com/commodities/assets/cocoa/report/","license":"https://sharemaestro.com/data-license/","disclaimer":"Observed market evidence for research and education only. Not financial, investment, trading, tax or legal advice.","content_hash":"feb77207b65a862e16dacfa29ebab3f024fe49f7253e540669e55bf610be1f0c"}