{"schema_version":"1.0","type":"daily_commodity_report","available":true,"name":"Sharemaestro Crude Oil WTI Daily Commodity Report","edition":"2026-08-20","market":{"name":"Crude Oil WTI","slug":"crude-oil-wti","group":"Energy","unit":"USD per barrel"},"current_read":{"state":{"label":"Mixed","headline":"Crude Oil WTI has a negative recent path, but its main market readings point in different directions."},"headline":"Crude Oil WTI has a negative recent path, but its main market readings point in different directions.","summary":"The latest completed close is 87.83 USD per barrel. The Trend Signal is active, Relative Strength is -1.3 and Market Dynamics is +0.14. This week is +6.6% through 4 completed sessions; across 20 sessions, price changed -4.7%."},"price":{"completed_close":87.830002,"recent_performance_pct":{"1_day":2.330187525802452,"5_days":8.098463999999982,"20_days":-4.729363168904166,"60_days":-6.45435836036169,"252_days":40.86608631487043},"current_week":{"week_start":"2026-08-17","through":"2026-08-20","sessions":4,"return_pct":6.589805665295967,"up_sessions":4,"down_sessions":0,"unchanged_sessions":0,"session_moves":[{"day":"2026-08-17","close":84.5,"return_pct":2.5485412002781205},{"day":"2026-08-18","close":84.940002,"return_pct":0.5207124260355078},{"day":"2026-08-19","close":85.830002,"return_pct":1.0477984212903468},{"day":"2026-08-20","close":87.830002,"return_pct":2.330187525802452}],"previous_week_start":"2026-08-10","previous_week_end":"2026-08-14","previous_sessions":5,"previous_return_pct":5.397802507035032,"change_vs_previous_week_pct_points":1.1920031582609347,"headline":"The completed path is accelerating this week.","detail":"Price is +6.59% across 4 completed sessions this week. The previous completed week returned +5.40%. The market is +2.65 percentage points versus its group this week.","tone":"supportive","group_return_pct":3.9419910677909398,"relative_to_group_pct_points":2.647814597505027}},"readings":{"trend":{"state":"Active","value":82.104666},"fair_value":82.643782,"relative_strength":{"value":-1.332627,"state":"Lagging"},"market_dynamics":{"value":0.142761,"state":"Supportive"}},"current_setup":{"stance":"Trend with a confirmation gap","path":"Price is trending upward, but not every market measure supports the move. The setup improves if the weaker reading turns positive.","trigger":"A completed close that holds above 82.10 USD per barrel, with Market Dynamics positive and relative strength above zero.","failure":"A completed loss of 82.10 USD per barrel alongside weakening Market Dynamics.","risk":"Volatility ranks at percentile 84 of its three-year history. Treat any setup as high-temperature and scale risk accordingly.","scenarios":[{"label":"Constructive path","condition":"A completed close that holds above 82.10 USD per barrel, with Market Dynamics positive and relative strength above zero.","meaning":"Confirmation would favour trend continuation or a completed repair rather than an anticipatory entry.","tone":"supportive"},{"label":"Holding pattern","condition":"Price remains near its current structure while confirming layers stay mixed.","meaning":"The market stays on watch; patience preserves the edge because there is no need to force a direction.","tone":"mixed"},{"label":"Failure path","condition":"A completed loss of 82.10 USD per barrel alongside weakening Market Dynamics.","meaning":"The setup weakens and the defensive interpretation takes priority until a new completed repair develops.","tone":"negative"}]},"positioning":{"label":"Positioning support with crowding risk","title":"A crowded long bias is confirming the trend, but the easy entry may have passed","summary":"Managed money is net +0.2% of open interest, at percentile 100 of its three-year range. The latest net shift was +0.12 percentage points.","edge":"Continuation remains plausible while price and Market Dynamics stay aligned; the risk is a faster unwind if that alignment breaks.","next_signal":"Watch whether the next report sustains exposure while price remains above the Trend Line; falling exposure alongside a price break would be the warning.","risk":"COT is published with a delay and describes trader groups, not a timed entry. Crowding can persist before it unwinds."},"producer_positioning":{"title":"The latest producer move is ordinary, not a standalone signal","detail":"Its magnitude ranks at percentile 55 of retained weekly shifts. The strongest retained horizon is 8 weeks, with 33% directional alignment across 6 independent samples.","implication":"The sample is too small and inconsistent to treat producer hedging as a forecast. Use it as a warning or confirmation layer beside price, never as the trade by itself."},"related_markets":{"title":"Brent crude oil is the clearest current confirmation market","detail":"The 52-week return correlation is +0.92. A matching move adds context; a divergence may indicate a relative-value move rather than a broad group signal. The strongest retained macro link is 10-year yield at +0.59, but it remains descriptive and can change.","action":"Use related markets to confirm or challenge the thesis; do not use correlation alone as the entry trigger."},"publication_boundary":"Observed market data and finished Sharemaestro readings only. Formulas, components, model features, thresholds, weights, source identifiers and calculation workings are not published.","source_coverage":{"commodity_intelligence":{"available":true,"as_of":"2026-08-19","cadence":"Completed daily sessions"},"weekly_exchange":{"available":true,"as_of":"2026-08-14","cadence":"Completed weekly evidence"}},"weekly_exchange":{"name":"Crude Oil WTI","group":"Energy","as_of":"2026-08-14","completed_close":82.400002,"recent_performance_pct":{"1_weeks":5.3978,"4_weeks":-0.1091,"12_weeks":-14.6998,"52_weeks":31.2102},"readings":{"trend":{"state":"Inactive"},"fair_value":74.076218,"relative_strength":{"value":-1.328512,"state":"Lagging"},"market_dynamics":{"value":-0.338142,"state":"Cautious"},"next_week_view":{"direction":"undecided","probability_pct":50.9371}}},"canonical_url":"https://sharemaestro.com/commodities/assets/crude-oil-wti/report/","distributions":{"html":"https://sharemaestro.com/commodities/assets/crude-oil-wti/report/","pdf":"https://sharemaestro.com/commodities/assets/crude-oil-wti/report/download.pdf","json":"https://sharemaestro.com/commodities/assets/crude-oil-wti/report/data.json"},"citation":"Sharemaestro, Crude Oil WTI Daily Commodity Report, 2026-08-20, https://sharemaestro.com/commodities/assets/crude-oil-wti/report/","license":"https://sharemaestro.com/data-license/","disclaimer":"Observed market evidence for research and education only. Not financial, investment, trading, tax or legal advice.","content_hash":"ab038f4f71452630e3efef30d2e944bad3f0140d39bd150f717db7c49300be88"}