{"schema_version":"1.0","type":"daily_commodity_report","available":true,"name":"Sharemaestro Natural Gas Daily Commodity Report","edition":"2026-08-21","market":{"name":"Natural Gas","slug":"natural-gas","group":"Energy","unit":"USD per MMBtu"},"current_read":{"state":{"label":"Repair developing","headline":"Natural Gas has positive Market Dynamics, but its price trend has not yet turned upward."},"headline":"Natural Gas has positive Market Dynamics, but its price trend has not yet turned upward.","summary":"The latest completed close is 2.77 USD per MMBtu. The Trend Signal is inactive, Relative Strength is -30.6 and Market Dynamics is +1.10. This week is +1.5% through 5 completed sessions; across 20 sessions, price changed -3.4%."},"price":{"completed_close":2.773,"recent_performance_pct":{"1_day":1.4635931211123276,"5_days":1.4635931211123276,"20_days":-3.413444792755138,"60_days":-8.782894736842106,"252_days":0.7630813953488413},"current_week":{"week_start":"2026-08-17","through":"2026-08-21","sessions":5,"return_pct":1.4635931211123276,"up_sessions":3,"down_sessions":2,"unchanged_sessions":0,"session_moves":[{"day":"2026-08-17","close":2.69,"return_pct":-1.5733626051957605},{"day":"2026-08-18","close":2.776,"return_pct":3.1970260223048275},{"day":"2026-08-19","close":2.814,"return_pct":1.36887608069165},{"day":"2026-08-20","close":2.733,"return_pct":-2.8784648187633266},{"day":"2026-08-21","close":2.773,"return_pct":1.4635931211123276}],"previous_week_start":"2026-08-10","previous_week_end":"2026-08-14","previous_sessions":5,"previous_return_pct":2.6671675432005992,"change_vs_previous_week_pct_points":-1.2035744220882716,"headline":"Price is higher this week, but momentum has slowed from last week.","detail":"Price is +1.46% across 5 completed sessions this week. The previous completed week returned +2.67%. The market is -3.34 percentage points versus its group this week.","tone":"mixed","group_return_pct":4.8080434704230735,"relative_to_group_pct_points":-3.344450349310746}},"readings":{"trend":{"state":"Inactive","value":2.788467},"fair_value":3.113032,"relative_strength":{"value":-30.643494,"state":"Lagging"},"market_dynamics":{"value":1.103963,"state":"Supportive"}},"current_setup":{"stance":"Repair watch","path":"Underlying pressure is improving before price has confirmed. This is a watchlist setup, not yet a completed trend.","trigger":"A completed Trend Signal above the current Trend Line near 2.79 USD per MMBtu, backed by positive Market Dynamics.","failure":"Renewed price weakness with Market Dynamics and relative strength both below zero.","risk":"Use completed-session confirmation and allow for the normal volatility of this market; intraday movement alone does not change the report state.","scenarios":[{"label":"Constructive path","condition":"A completed Trend Signal above the current Trend Line near 2.79 USD per MMBtu, backed by positive Market Dynamics.","meaning":"Confirmation would favour trend continuation or a completed repair rather than an anticipatory entry.","tone":"supportive"},{"label":"Holding pattern","condition":"Price remains near its current structure while confirming layers stay mixed.","meaning":"The market stays on watch; patience preserves the edge because there is no need to force a direction.","tone":"mixed"},{"label":"Failure path","condition":"Renewed price weakness with Market Dynamics and relative strength both below zero.","meaning":"The setup weakens and the defensive interpretation takes priority until a new completed repair develops.","tone":"negative"}]},"positioning":{"label":"No extreme positioning edge","title":"Positioning is not stretched enough to override the price evidence","summary":"Managed money is net -5.7% of open interest, at percentile 23 of its three-year range. The latest net shift was +0.74 percentage points.","edge":"Use the weekly change as confirmation, but let completed price structure and Market Dynamics determine direction.","next_signal":"A completed Trend Signal with positive Market Dynamics, followed by stable or rising net exposure, would turn positioning into confirmation.","risk":"COT is published with a delay and describes trader groups, not a timed entry. Crowding can persist before it unwinds."},"producer_positioning":{"title":"The latest producer move is ordinary, not a standalone signal","detail":"Its magnitude ranks at percentile 9 of retained weekly shifts. The strongest retained horizon is 4 weeks, with 75% directional alignment across 4 independent samples.","implication":"The sample is too small and inconsistent to treat producer hedging as a forecast. Use it as a warning or confirmation layer beside price, never as the trade by itself."},"related_markets":{"title":"No peer relationship is strong enough to carry the thesis","detail":"Treat the outright structure as primary; nearby commodity moves are context rather than confirmation. The strongest retained macro link is US dollar at +0.27, but it remains descriptive and can change.","action":"Use related markets to confirm or challenge the thesis; do not use correlation alone as the entry trigger."},"publication_boundary":"Observed market data and finished Sharemaestro readings only. Formulas, components, model features, thresholds, weights, source identifiers and calculation workings are not published.","source_coverage":{"commodity_intelligence":{"available":true,"as_of":"2026-08-21","cadence":"Completed daily sessions"},"weekly_exchange":{"available":true,"as_of":"2026-08-21","cadence":"Completed weekly evidence"}},"weekly_exchange":{"name":"Natural Gas","group":"Energy","as_of":"2026-08-21","completed_close":2.773,"recent_performance_pct":{"1_weeks":1.4636,"4_weeks":-3.4134,"12_weeks":-15.7143,"52_weeks":2.7798},"readings":{"trend":{"state":"Inactive"},"fair_value":3.019333,"relative_strength":{"value":-30.643494,"state":"Lagging"},"market_dynamics":{"value":-0.276263,"state":"Cautious"},"next_week_view":{"direction":"negative","probability_pct":42.3472}}},"canonical_url":"https://sharemaestro.com/commodities/assets/natural-gas/report/","distributions":{"html":"https://sharemaestro.com/commodities/assets/natural-gas/report/","pdf":"https://sharemaestro.com/commodities/assets/natural-gas/report/download.pdf","json":"https://sharemaestro.com/commodities/assets/natural-gas/report/data.json"},"citation":"Sharemaestro, Natural Gas Daily Commodity Report, 2026-08-21, https://sharemaestro.com/commodities/assets/natural-gas/report/","license":"https://sharemaestro.com/data-license/","disclaimer":"Observed market evidence for research and education only. Not financial, investment, trading, tax or legal advice.","content_hash":"7a8a798e12e5fad1786e64bcefb324bea33cbc6e9b5b8b21769dbbef9a381f8a"}