{"schema_version":"1.0","type":"daily_commodity_report","available":true,"name":"Sharemaestro Orange Juice Daily Commodity Report","edition":"2026-08-21","market":{"name":"Orange Juice","slug":"orange-juice","group":"Softs","unit":"US cents per pound"},"current_read":{"state":{"label":"Mixed","headline":"Orange Juice has a positive recent path, but its main market readings point in different directions."},"headline":"Orange Juice has a positive recent path, but its main market readings point in different directions.","summary":"The latest completed close is 152.75 US cents per pound. The Trend Signal is active, Relative Strength is -29.3 and Market Dynamics is +0.21. This week is +5.3% through 5 completed sessions; across 20 sessions, price changed +7.8%."},"price":{"completed_close":152.75,"recent_performance_pct":{"1_day":0.625821463257803,"5_days":5.308512127366183,"20_days":7.760141093474426,"60_days":-8.587675334972767,"252_days":-36.95831691756107},"current_week":{"week_start":"2026-08-17","through":"2026-08-21","sessions":5,"return_pct":5.308512127366183,"up_sessions":5,"down_sessions":0,"unchanged_sessions":0,"session_moves":[{"day":"2026-08-17","close":146.800003,"return_pct":1.2064804990042033},{"day":"2026-08-18","close":146.899994,"return_pct":0.06811375882600501},{"day":"2026-08-19","close":147.100006,"return_pct":0.13615521318537382},{"day":"2026-08-20","close":151.800003,"return_pct":3.1951032007435876},{"day":"2026-08-21","close":152.75,"return_pct":0.625821463257803}],"previous_week_start":"2026-08-10","previous_week_end":"2026-08-14","previous_sessions":5,"previous_return_pct":1.753770569896096,"change_vs_previous_week_pct_points":3.554741557470087,"headline":"The completed path is accelerating this week.","detail":"Price is +5.31% across 5 completed sessions this week. The previous completed week returned +1.75%. The market is +2.02 percentage points versus its group this week.","tone":"supportive","group_return_pct":3.287085356674879,"relative_to_group_pct_points":2.0214267706913036}},"readings":{"trend":{"state":"Active","value":145.328334},"fair_value":171.38718,"relative_strength":{"value":-29.349862,"state":"Lagging"},"market_dynamics":{"value":0.210348,"state":"Supportive"}},"current_setup":{"stance":"Trend with a confirmation gap","path":"Price is trending upward, but not every market measure supports the move. The setup improves if the weaker reading turns positive.","trigger":"A completed close that holds above 145.33 US cents per pound, with Market Dynamics positive and relative strength above zero.","failure":"A completed loss of 145.33 US cents per pound alongside weakening Market Dynamics.","risk":"Use completed-session confirmation and allow for the normal volatility of this market; intraday movement alone does not change the report state.","scenarios":[{"label":"Constructive path","condition":"A completed close that holds above 145.33 US cents per pound, with Market Dynamics positive and relative strength above zero.","meaning":"Confirmation would favour trend continuation or a completed repair rather than an anticipatory entry.","tone":"supportive"},{"label":"Holding pattern","condition":"Price remains near its current structure while confirming layers stay mixed.","meaning":"The market stays on watch; patience preserves the edge because there is no need to force a direction.","tone":"mixed"},{"label":"Failure path","condition":"A completed loss of 145.33 US cents per pound alongside weakening Market Dynamics.","meaning":"The setup weakens and the defensive interpretation takes priority until a new completed repair develops.","tone":"negative"}]},"positioning":{"label":"Re-entry capacity","title":"Positioning is light enough to leave room for a confirmed recovery","summary":"Managed money is net -15.3% of open interest, at percentile 7 of its three-year range. The latest net shift was -2.67 percentage points.","edge":"If price structure improves, fresh participation or short covering could reinforce the move because positioning is not crowded.","next_signal":"Watch whether the next report sustains exposure while price remains above the Trend Line; falling exposure alongside a price break would be the warning.","risk":"COT is published with a delay and describes trader groups, not a timed entry. Crowding can persist before it unwinds."},"producer_positioning":{"title":"The latest producer move is ordinary, not a standalone signal","detail":"Its magnitude ranks at percentile 20 of retained weekly shifts. The strongest retained horizon is 8 weeks, with 62% directional alignment across 8 independent samples.","implication":"The sample is too small and inconsistent to treat producer hedging as a forecast. Use it as a warning or confirmation layer beside price, never as the trade by itself."},"related_markets":{"title":"No peer relationship is strong enough to carry the thesis","detail":"Treat the outright structure as primary; nearby commodity moves are context rather than confirmation. Current macro-factor relationships are weak, which points to a more market-specific setup.","action":"Use related markets to confirm or challenge the thesis; do not use correlation alone as the entry trigger."},"publication_boundary":"Observed market data and finished Sharemaestro readings only. Formulas, components, model features, thresholds, weights, source identifiers and calculation workings are not published.","source_coverage":{"commodity_intelligence":{"available":true,"as_of":"2026-08-21","cadence":"Completed daily sessions"},"weekly_exchange":{"available":true,"as_of":"2026-08-21","cadence":"Completed weekly evidence"}},"weekly_exchange":{"name":"Orange Juice","group":"Softs","as_of":"2026-08-21","completed_close":150.800003,"recent_performance_pct":{"1_weeks":3.9642,"4_weeks":6.3845,"12_weeks":-5.3061,"52_weeks":-37.232},"readings":{"trend":{"state":"Inactive"},"fair_value":313.778527,"relative_strength":{"value":-30.239677,"state":"Lagging"},"market_dynamics":{"value":-0.037062,"state":"Cautious"},"next_week_view":{"direction":"negative","probability_pct":43.5757}}},"canonical_url":"https://sharemaestro.com/commodities/assets/orange-juice/report/","distributions":{"html":"https://sharemaestro.com/commodities/assets/orange-juice/report/","pdf":"https://sharemaestro.com/commodities/assets/orange-juice/report/download.pdf","json":"https://sharemaestro.com/commodities/assets/orange-juice/report/data.json"},"citation":"Sharemaestro, Orange Juice Daily Commodity Report, 2026-08-21, https://sharemaestro.com/commodities/assets/orange-juice/report/","license":"https://sharemaestro.com/data-license/","disclaimer":"Observed market evidence for research and education only. Not financial, investment, trading, tax or legal advice.","content_hash":"810ea782a0c8cfb112cac11cb87161917569a8d5d0e97577b2e0196ab1c0ef84"}