{"schema_version":"1.0","type":"daily_commodity_report","available":true,"name":"Sharemaestro Soybeans Daily Commodity Report","edition":"2026-10-12","price_as_of":"2026-10-09","market":{"name":"Soybeans","slug":"soybeans","group":"Grains","unit":"US cents per bushel"},"current_read":{"state":{"label":"Early improvement","headline":"Soybeans has positive weekly Market Dynamics, but its price trend has not yet turned upward."},"headline":"Soybeans has positive weekly Market Dynamics, but its price trend has not yet turned upward.","summary":"The latest completed close is 1,292.00 US cents per bushel. The Trend Signal is inactive, Relative Strength is -3.5. Weekly Market Dynamics is +1.358 for the week ending 09 Oct 2026. This week is +1.1% through 5 completed sessions; across 20 sessions, price changed +0.9%."},"price":{"completed_close":1292.0,"recent_performance_pct":{"1_day":0.34951456310678974,"5_days":1.0756894191277233,"20_days":0.917789494239396,"60_days":8.117154811715487,"252_days":25.497814473045178},"current_week":{"week_start":"2026-10-05","through":"2026-10-09","sessions":5,"return_pct":1.0756894191277233,"up_sessions":3,"down_sessions":2,"unchanged_sessions":0,"session_moves":[{"day":"2026-10-05","close":1280.75,"return_pct":0.19557989438685475},{"day":"2026-10-06","close":1303.0,"return_pct":1.737263322272109},{"day":"2026-10-07","close":1297.5,"return_pct":-0.4221028396009241},{"day":"2026-10-08","close":1287.5,"return_pct":-0.770712909441229},{"day":"2026-10-09","close":1292.0,"return_pct":0.34951456310678974}],"previous_week_start":"2026-09-28","previous_week_end":"2026-10-02","previous_sessions":5,"previous_return_pct":-3.0894617134192615,"change_vs_previous_week_pct_points":4.165151132546985,"headline":"The rise has picked up speed this week.","detail":"Price is +1.08% across 5 completed sessions this week. The previous completed week returned -3.09%. The market is +0.28 percentage points versus its group this week.","tone":"supportive","group_return_pct":0.7973970065013658,"relative_to_group_pct_points":0.2782924126263575}},"readings":{"trend":{"state":"Inactive","value":1300.391667},"fair_value":1198.391026,"relative_strength":{"value":-3.475282,"state":"Lagging"},"market_dynamics":{"value":1.357728,"timeframe":"weekly","as_of":"2026-10-09","state":"Supportive"}},"current_setup":{"stance":"Watching for improvement","path":"Some readings are improving. Price still needs to confirm an upward trend.","trigger":"A completed Trend Signal above the current Trend Line near 1300.39 US cents per bushel, backed by positive weekly Market Dynamics.","failure":"Renewed price weakness with weekly Market Dynamics and relative strength both below zero.","risk":"Volatility ranks at percentile 79 of its three-year history. Treat any setup as high-temperature and scale risk accordingly.","scenarios":[{"label":"Constructive path","condition":"A completed Trend Signal above the current Trend Line near 1300.39 US cents per bushel, backed by positive weekly Market Dynamics.","meaning":"Confirmation would favour trend continuation or a completed repair rather than an anticipatory entry.","tone":"supportive"},{"label":"Holding pattern","condition":"Price remains near its current structure while confirming layers stay mixed.","meaning":"The market stays on watch; patience preserves the edge because there is no need to force a direction.","tone":"mixed"},{"label":"Failure path","condition":"Renewed price weakness with weekly Market Dynamics and relative strength both below zero.","meaning":"The setup weakens and the defensive interpretation takes priority until a new completed repair develops.","tone":"negative"}]},"positioning":{"label":"Crowding warning","title":"Long exposure is crowded before price has fully confirmed it","summary":"Managed money is net +18.2% of open interest, at percentile 98 of its three-year range. The latest net shift was +0.30 percentage points.","edge":"This is not a clean long-positioning edge. The better signal would be price confirmation without another expansion in crowding.","next_signal":"A completed Trend Signal with positive weekly Market Dynamics, followed by stable or rising net exposure, would turn positioning into confirmation.","risk":"COT is published with a delay and describes trader groups, not a timed entry. Crowding can persist before it unwinds."},"producer_positioning":{"title":"The latest producer move is ordinary, not a standalone signal","detail":"Its magnitude ranks at percentile 28 of retained weekly shifts. The strongest retained horizon is 8 weeks, with 71% directional alignment across 7 independent samples.","implication":"The sample is too small and inconsistent to treat producer hedging as a forecast. Use it as a warning or confirmation layer beside price, never as the trade by itself."},"related_markets":{"title":"Soybean meal is the clearest current confirmation market","detail":"The 52-week return correlation is +0.70. A matching move adds context; a divergence may indicate a relative-value move rather than a broad group signal. The strongest retained macro link is 2s10s curve at -0.26, but it remains descriptive and can change.","action":"Use related markets to confirm or challenge the thesis; do not use correlation alone as the entry trigger."},"publication_boundary":"Observed market data and finished Sharemaestro readings only. Formulas, components, model features, thresholds, weights, source identifiers and calculation workings are not published.","source_coverage":{"commodity_intelligence":{"available":true,"as_of":"2026-10-09","cadence":"Completed daily sessions"},"weekly_exchange":{"available":true,"as_of":"2026-10-09","cadence":"Completed weekly evidence"}},"weekly_exchange":{"name":"Soybeans","group":"Grains","as_of":"2026-10-09","completed_close":1292.0,"recent_performance_pct":{"1_weeks":1.0757,"4_weeks":0.9178,"12_weeks":7.2644,"52_weeks":28.3337},"readings":{"trend":{"state":"Active"},"fair_value":1114.907051,"relative_strength":{"value":-3.475282,"state":"Lagging"},"market_dynamics":{"value":1.357728,"state":"Supportive"},"next_week_view":{"direction":"positive","probability_pct":55.5611}}},"canonical_url":"https://sharemaestro.com/commodities/assets/soybeans/report/","distributions":{"html":"https://sharemaestro.com/commodities/assets/soybeans/report/","pdf":"https://sharemaestro.com/commodities/assets/soybeans/report/download.pdf","json":"https://sharemaestro.com/commodities/assets/soybeans/report/data.json"},"citation":"Sharemaestro, Soybeans Daily Commodity Report, 2026-10-12, https://sharemaestro.com/commodities/assets/soybeans/report/","license":"https://sharemaestro.com/data-license/","disclaimer":"Observed market evidence for research and education only. Not financial, investment, trading, tax or legal advice.","content_hash":"de58c8877bb43a7623144598b3110b76dfa0d66bfd312b9083b8d845f6f4e66e"}