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"availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": 45.756461353594005, "key": "unrecognised_improvement", "status": "Non-positive four-week response", "tone": "opportunity"}, {"date": "2025-04-25", "periodEnd": "2025-03-31", "earningsChangePct": 1.306782825140007, "surprisePct": 13.803680981595098, "immediateReturnPct": -13.528927228664811, "forward4WeekPct": -4.548074809698588, "forward13WeekPct": -1.6833974229891413, "toDateReturnPct": -22.843578606563074, "weeksSince": 67, "availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": 55.898694483285766, "key": "mixed", "status": "Mixed response", "tone": "neutral"}, {"date": "2025-07-25", "periodEnd": "2025-06-30", "earningsChangePct": 6.326781326781306, "surprisePct": 8.144796380090504, "immediateReturnPct": -0.58936219399367, "forward4WeekPct": -5.164729880872388, "forward13WeekPct": -12.004463536317012, "toDateReturnPct": -21.98500700283501, "weeksSince": 54, "availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": 51.002081077897856, "key": "unrecognised_improvement", "status": "Non-positive four-week response", "tone": "opportunity"}, {"date": "2025-10-24", "periodEnd": "2025-09-30", "earningsChangePct": 5.834777585210871, "surprisePct": 8.091286307053934, "immediateReturnPct": -5.600750899158024, "forward4WeekPct": -13.977293056167618, "forward13WeekPct": -9.0649855107102, "toDateReturnPct": -16.307609982248607, "weeksSince": 41, "availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": 76.50199231472, "key": "unrecognised_improvement", "status": "Non-positive four-week response", "tone": "opportunity"}, {"date": "2026-02-13", "periodEnd": "2025-12-31", "earningsChangePct": 6.495633187772931, "surprisePct": 12.162162162162161, "immediateReturnPct": -10.330837935447379, "forward4WeekPct": -12.396287785130156, "forward13WeekPct": -24.77819881454343, "toDateReturnPct": -9.60929539350217, "weeksSince": 25, "availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": 102.82261679921444, "key": "unrecognised_improvement", "status": "Non-positive four-week response", "tone": "opportunity"}, {"date": "2026-04-24", "periodEnd": "2026-03-31", "earningsChangePct": 7.175807278318813, "surprisePct": 9.188034188034202, "immediateReturnPct": -4.351682460294059, "forward4WeekPct": -14.02239609066146, "forward13WeekPct": -3.1588839706892524, "toDateReturnPct": 3.681854847078725, "weeksSince": 15, "availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": 124.56095838926996, "key": "unrecognised_improvement", "status": "Non-positive four-week response", "tone": "opportunity"}, {"date": "2026-07-24", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "earningsChangePct": 3.634624581539936, "surprisePct": 8.627450980392165, "immediateReturnPct": 1.4855082996598767, "forward4WeekPct": null, "forward13WeekPct": null, "toDateReturnPct": 8.654321346550775, "weeksSince": 2, "availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": 131.33647495726274, "key": "mixed", "status": "Mixed response", "tone": "neutral"}], "latestEvent": {"date": "2026-07-24", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "earningsChangePct": 3.634624581539936, "surprisePct": 8.627450980392165, "immediateReturnPct": 1.4855082996598767, "forward4WeekPct": null, "forward13WeekPct": null, "toDateReturnPct": 8.654321346550775, "weeksSince": 2, "availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": 131.33647495726274, "key": "mixed", "status": "Mixed response", "tone": "neutral"}, "freshImprovementAwaitingConfirmation": false, "improvementConfirmationReversed": false, "summary": "Across completed four-week windows, 7 improving updates had a non-positive price response; 3 had a meaningful positive price response."}, "professional": {"peerContext": {"available": true, "cohort": "Insurance - Property & Casualty", "population": 29, "spreadPercentile": 67.9, "qualityPercentile": 71.4, "rarityPercentile": 67.9, "currentOneYearSpread": 41.959921, "lead": "earnings", "relatedSignals": [{"tickerId": 268, "symbol": "ASIC", "name": "Ategrity Specialty Insurance Company Holdings", "spread": 46.865667, "lead": "earnings", "quality": 100}, {"tickerId": 3800, "symbol": "STC", "name": "Stewart Information Services Corp", "spread": 49.119778, "lead": "earnings", "quality": 100}, {"tickerId": 771, "symbol": "CNA", "name": "CNA Financial Corporation", "spread": 33.679355, "lead": "earnings", "quality": 87.5}, {"tickerId": 3391, "symbol": "RLI", "name": "RLI Corp", "spread": 30.861813000000005, "lead": "earnings", "quality": 75}, {"tickerId": 7700, "symbol": "PLMR", "name": "Palomar Holdings Inc", "spread": 22.322716, "lead": "earnings", "quality": 100}, {"tickerId": 5351, "symbol": "CINF", "name": "Cincinnati Financial Corporation", "spread": 63.010498000000005, "lead": "earnings", "quality": 100}, {"tickerId": 3129, "symbol": "PGR", "name": "Progressive Corp", "spread": 19.070321, "lead": "earnings", "quality": 75}, {"tickerId": 2445, "symbol": "L", "name": "Loews Corp", "spread": 18.976836000000002, "lead": "earnings", "quality": 75}]}, "historicalOutcomes": {"available": false, "sampleSize": 0, "historyWeeks": 156, "horizons": []}, "transitions": [{"date": "2023-08-18", "key": "balanced", "label": "Broadly aligned", "tone": "neutral"}, {"date": "2023-10-27", "key": "unrecognised_improvement", "label": "Earnings ahead", "tone": "positive"}, {"date": "2024-02-16", "key": "confirmed_compounding", "label": "Confirmed compounding", "tone": "positive"}, {"date": "2024-04-26", "key": "unrecognised_improvement", "label": "Earnings ahead", "tone": "positive"}], "dataIntegrity": {"asOf": "2026-08-07", "exactReportDates": 13, "estimatedReportDates": 0, "coverage": 100}}, "alerts": [{"key": "persistent_earnings_lead", "label": "Persistent earnings lead", "tone": "positive", "explanation": "Earnings power has led market price across several updates."}, {"key": "repricing_started", "label": "Repricing may be starting", "tone": "positive", "explanation": "The longstanding earnings lead is beginning to close through price confirmation."}, {"key": "quality_confirmed", "label": "Business quality supportive", "tone": "positive", "explanation": "Cash generation and operating evidence are broadly supportive."}]}, "disclaimer": "Earnings intelligence is descriptive market research. It is not a forecast, recommendation or trading instruction."}