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{"date": "2025-07-25", "periodEnd": "2025-06-30", "earningsChangePct": 2.678571428571419, "surprisePct": 7.142857142857128, "immediateReturnPct": 1.5763152715316142, "forward4WeekPct": 2.8835033504242213, "forward13WeekPct": -4.605396747376966, "toDateReturnPct": 25.680395593740492, "weeksSince": 54, "availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": -56.99976731813625, "key": "accepted_improvement", "status": "Positive four-week response", "tone": "positive"}, {"date": "2025-10-24", "periodEnd": "2025-09-30", "earningsChangePct": 2.60869565217392, "surprisePct": 5.000000000000004, "immediateReturnPct": 4.198475749738106, "forward4WeekPct": 5.640375894608618, "forward13WeekPct": 17.75866689775132, "toDateReturnPct": 37.279313566742815, "weeksSince": 41, "availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": -45.3687246670041, "key": "accepted_improvement", "status": "Positive four-week response", "tone": "positive"}, {"date": "2026-01-23", "periodEnd": "2025-12-31", "earningsChangePct": -0.8474576271186418, "surprisePct": -6.557377049180333, "immediateReturnPct": -1.0442908977781884, "forward4WeekPct": 8.24631215048537, "forward13WeekPct": 0.911093524376061, "toDateReturnPct": 15.359422596543503, "weeksSince": 28, "availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": -64.62500180656727, "key": "mixed", "status": "Mixed response", "tone": "neutral"}, {"date": "2026-04-24", "periodEnd": "2026-03-31", "earningsChangePct": 3.418803418803429, "surprisePct": 5.084745762711869, "immediateReturnPct": -1.3153213428877875, "forward4WeekPct": -1.06647676450361, "forward13WeekPct": 10.768285381601395, "toDateReturnPct": 12.81423232481309, "weeksSince": 15, "availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": -64.52399908685369, "key": "unrecognised_improvement", "status": "Non-positive four-week response", "tone": "opportunity"}, {"date": "2026-07-24", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "earningsChangePct": 3.3057851239669533, "surprisePct": 6.250000000000005, "immediateReturnPct": -2.4960505529225907, "forward4WeekPct": null, "forward13WeekPct": null, "toDateReturnPct": -0.695102685624005, "weeksSince": 2, "availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": -81.25416820357465, "key": "unrecognised_improvement", "status": "Non-positive initial response", "tone": "opportunity"}], "latestEvent": {"date": "2026-07-24", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "earningsChangePct": 3.3057851239669533, "surprisePct": 6.250000000000005, "immediateReturnPct": -2.4960505529225907, "forward4WeekPct": null, "forward13WeekPct": null, "toDateReturnPct": -0.695102685624005, "weeksSince": 2, "availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": -81.25416820357465, "key": "unrecognised_improvement", "status": "Non-positive initial response", "tone": "opportunity"}, "freshImprovementAwaitingConfirmation": true, "improvementConfirmationReversed": false, "summary": "Across completed four-week windows, 2 improving updates had a non-positive price response; 4 had a meaningful positive price response."}, "professional": {"peerContext": {"available": true, "cohort": "Banks - Regional", "population": 28, "spreadPercentile": 44.4, "qualityPercentile": 18.5, "rarityPercentile": 55.6, "currentOneYearSpread": -23.714964, "lead": "price", "relatedSignals": [{"tickerId": 679, "symbol": "CFG", "name": "Citizens Financial Group, Inc.", "spread": -23.736304999999998, "lead": "price", "quality": 75}, {"tickerId": 5988, "symbol": "FCNCA", "name": "First Citizens BancShares, Inc.", "spread": -23.664974, "lead": "price", "quality": 50}, {"tickerId": 2746, "symbol": "MTB", "name": "M&T Bank Corporation", "spread": -25.528777999999996, "lead": "price", "quality": 75}, {"tickerId": 4320, "symbol": "WBS", "name": "Webster Financial Corporation", "spread": -26.015060000000002, "lead": "price", "quality": 62.5}, {"tickerId": 2198, "symbol": "ITUB", "name": "Itau Unibanco Banco Holding SA", "spread": -20.875572999999996, "lead": "price", "quality": 66.66666666666667}, {"tickerId": 4154, "symbol": "USB", "name": "U.S. Bancorp", "spread": -28.477635, "lead": "price", "quality": 100}, {"tickerId": 4343, "symbol": "WF", "name": "Woori Financial Group Inc", "spread": -18.577050999999997, "lead": "price", "quality": 66.66666666666667}, {"tickerId": 2620, "symbol": "MFG", "name": "Mizuho Financial Group Inc.", "spread": -16.607556000000002, "lead": "price", "quality": 66.66666666666667}]}, "historicalOutcomes": {"available": false, "sampleSize": 0, "historyWeeks": 156, "horizons": []}, "transitions": [{"date": "2023-08-18", "key": "balanced", "label": "Broadly aligned", "tone": "neutral"}, {"date": "2023-10-27", "key": "relative_earnings_resilience", "label": "Relative earnings resilience", "tone": "neutral"}, {"date": "2024-01-26", "key": "balanced", "label": "Broadly aligned", "tone": "neutral"}, {"date": "2024-04-26", "key": "fundamental_fracture", "label": "Fundamental fracture", "tone": "negative"}, {"date": "2025-10-24", "key": "expectations_ahead", "label": "Expectations ahead", "tone": "caution"}], "dataIntegrity": {"asOf": "2026-08-07", "exactReportDates": 13, "estimatedReportDates": 0, "coverage": 100}}, "alerts": [{"key": "quality_confirmed", "label": "Business quality supportive", "tone": "positive", "explanation": "Cash generation and operating evidence are broadly supportive."}, {"key": "expectations_stretched", "label": "Expectations stretched", "tone": "caution", "explanation": "Price has moved materially faster than delivered earnings power."}]}, "disclaimer": "Earnings intelligence is descriptive market research. It is not a forecast, recommendation or trading instruction."}