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"weeksSince": 48, "availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": 311.97039540489175, "key": "accepted_improvement", "status": "Positive four-week response", "tone": "positive"}, {"date": "2025-12-05", "periodEnd": "2025-09-30", "earningsChangePct": 10.576923076923062, "surprisePct": 66.66666666666666, "immediateReturnPct": 0.0, "forward4WeekPct": 5.555508437440815, "forward13WeekPct": -3.3333616042021785, "toDateReturnPct": -43.45826230277535, "weeksSince": 35, "availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": 356.2165995965753, "key": "accepted_improvement", "status": "Positive four-week response", "tone": "positive"}, {"date": "2026-03-27", "periodEnd": "2025-12-31", "earningsChangePct": 2.7565217391304353, "surprisePct": null, "immediateReturnPct": -2.454029483569242, "forward4WeekPct": 5.5214570702498245, "forward13WeekPct": -30.693007486403957, "toDateReturnPct": -37.561268005769335, "weeksSince": 19, "availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": 383.28306425870034, "key": "accepted_improvement", "status": "Positive four-week response", "tone": "positive"}, {"date": "2026-06-19", "periodEnd": "2026-03-31", "earningsChangePct": -18.744182110518736, "surprisePct": null, "immediateReturnPct": -11.428571428571422, "forward4WeekPct": -15.714285714285714, "forward13WeekPct": null, "toDateReturnPct": -28.57142857142857, "weeksSince": 7, "availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": 313.42981642096777, "key": "accepted_deterioration", "status": "Negative four-week response", "tone": "negative"}], "latestEvent": {"date": "2026-06-19", "periodEnd": "2026-03-31", "earningsChangePct": -18.744182110518736, "surprisePct": null, "immediateReturnPct": -11.428571428571422, "forward4WeekPct": -15.714285714285714, "forward13WeekPct": null, "toDateReturnPct": -28.57142857142857, "weeksSince": 7, "availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": 313.42981642096777, "key": "accepted_deterioration", "status": "Negative four-week response", "tone": "negative"}, "freshImprovementAwaitingConfirmation": false, "improvementConfirmationReversed": false, "summary": "Across completed four-week windows, 1 improving update had a non-positive price response; 5 had a meaningful positive price response."}, "professional": {"peerContext": {"available": true, "cohort": "Insurance - Diversified", "population": 10, "spreadPercentile": 100.0, "qualityPercentile": 27.8, "rarityPercentile": 100.0, "currentOneYearSpread": 85.89147299999999, "lead": "earnings", "relatedSignals": [{"tickerId": 4589, "symbol": "ACGLO", "name": "Arch Capital Group Ltd", "spread": 30.06741, "lead": "earnings", "quality": 75}, {"tickerId": 1929, "symbol": "HIG", "name": "Hartford Financial Services Group", "spread": 20.765676999999997, "lead": "earnings", "quality": 87.5}, {"tickerId": 4587, "symbol": "ACGL", "name": "Arch Capital Group Ltd.", "spread": 14.792686, "lead": "earnings", "quality": 87.5}]}, "historicalOutcomes": {"available": false, "sampleSize": 0, "historyWeeks": 156, "horizons": []}, "transitions": [{"date": "2023-08-18", "key": "balanced", "label": "Broadly aligned", "tone": "neutral"}, {"date": "2023-09-08", "key": "shared_contraction", "label": "Shared contraction", "tone": "negative"}, {"date": "2023-12-08", "key": "fundamental_fracture", "label": "Fundamental fracture", "tone": "negative"}, {"date": "2024-09-06", "key": "unrecognised_improvement", "label": "Earnings ahead", "tone": "positive"}], "dataIntegrity": {"asOf": "2026-08-07", "exactReportDates": 13, "estimatedReportDates": 0, "coverage": 100}}, "alerts": [{"key": "persistent_earnings_lead", "label": "Persistent earnings lead", "tone": "positive", "explanation": "Earnings power has led market price across several updates."}, {"key": "quality_confirmed", "label": "Business quality supportive", "tone": "positive", "explanation": "Cash generation and operating evidence are broadly supportive."}, {"key": "base_sensitive", "label": "Starting-base sensitivity", "tone": "caution", "explanation": "The three-year earnings move begins from an unusually depressed level; compare the shorter horizons before relying on its scale."}]}, "disclaimer": "Earnings intelligence is descriptive market research. It is not a forecast, recommendation or trading instruction."}