{"ticker": {"uuid": "3601e43b-0241-4c9a-a14b-a7efad7be9e1", "symbol": "ASTL", "name": "Algoma Steel Group Inc", "sector": "Basic Materials", "industry": "Steel", "currency": "USD"}, "next_event": null, "profile": {"sample": 12, "measured": 12, "beats": 4, "misses": 8, "inline": 0, "beat_rate": 33.3, "beat_rate_label": "33.3%", "average_surprise": -6.0, "average_surprise_label": "-6.0%", "median_surprise": -25.6, "surprise_dispersion": 140.9, "average_reaction": -1.4, "average_reaction_label": "-1.4%", "average_abs_reaction": 8.8, "positive_response_rate": 50.0, "confirmation_rate": 66.7, "reaction_sample": 12, "streak": {"count": 5, "band": "miss", "label": "5 consecutive misses"}, "profile": "Delivery under pressure", "profile_tone": "negative", "profile_text": "Estimate misses and negative next-close reactions have appeared together often enough to warrant caution."}, "event_risk": {"score": 0, "band": "Inactive", "tone": "neutral", "days": null, "proximity_component": 0, "reaction_component": 0, "variability_component": 0, "uncertainty_component": 0, "explanation": "Event risk is inactive until a forward report date is stored."}, "evidence": {"score": 100, "band": "Deep", "exact": 12, "surprise": 12, "reaction": 12, "financial": 12, "total": 12}, "factor_context": {"available": true, "as_of": "2026-08-09", "eps_growth_1y": null, "revenue_growth_1y": -27.1, "cash_conversion": 0.07, "net_margin": -71.6, "earnings_yield": null, "eps_surprise_avg": -96.4, "sue_score": -0.47, "pe_ratio": null, "completeness": 78.6, "source": "alphavantage"}, "market_context": {"available": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.075, "currency": "USD", "return_13w": -20.7, "fair_value": 6.60039, "fair_value_gap": -38.3, "relative_strength": -17.8, "trend_signal": "Inactive", "expectation_direction": "undecided", "expectation_probability": 47.5}, "records": [{"period_end": "2023-09-30", "reported_date": "2023-11-02", "date_source": "exact", "eps_actual": 0.23, "eps_estimate": 0.31, "eps_surprise": -0.08, "surprise_pct": -25.8065, "surprise_label": "-25.8%", "surprise_band": "miss", "eps_yoy": null, "eps_yoy_label": "-", "one_week_reaction": 6.025835388306182, "one_week_reaction_label": "+6.0%", "four_week_reaction": 12.912485102791676, "four_week_reaction_label": "+12.9%", "confirmation": "diverged", "revenue": 732600000.0, "revenue_yoy": null, "revenue_yoy_label": "-", "net_income": 31100000.0, "operating_cash_flow": 57200000.0, "free_cash_flow": 211800000.0, "currency": "USD"}, {"period_end": "2023-12-31", "reported_date": "2024-02-06", "date_source": "exact", "eps_actual": -0.48, "eps_estimate": -0.25, "eps_surprise": -0.23, "surprise_pct": -92.0, "surprise_label": "-92.0%", "surprise_band": "miss", "eps_yoy": null, "eps_yoy_label": "-", "one_week_reaction": -1.3221053178980557, "one_week_reaction_label": "-1.3%", "four_week_reaction": -4.6037921803749535, "four_week_reaction_label": "-4.6%", "confirmation": "confirmed", "revenue": 615400000.0, "revenue_yoy": null, "revenue_yoy_label": "-", "net_income": -84800000.0, "operating_cash_flow": -47400000.0, "free_cash_flow": 49100000.0, "currency": "USD"}, {"period_end": "2024-03-31", "reported_date": "2024-06-20", "date_source": "exact", "eps_actual": 0.02, "eps_estimate": -0.02, "eps_surprise": 0.04, "surprise_pct": 200.0, "surprise_label": "+200.0%", "surprise_band": "beat", "eps_yoy": null, "eps_yoy_label": "-", "one_week_reaction": -2.6425647498033897, "one_week_reaction_label": "-2.6%", "four_week_reaction": 2.963939299337623, "four_week_reaction_label": "+3.0%", "confirmation": "diverged", "revenue": 620600000.0, "revenue_yoy": null, "revenue_yoy_label": "-", "net_income": 28000000.0, "operating_cash_flow": 121200000.0, "free_cash_flow": 241600000.0, "currency": "USD"}, {"period_end": "2024-06-30", "reported_date": "2024-08-13", "date_source": "exact", "eps_actual": 0.07, "eps_estimate": -0.04, "eps_surprise": 0.11, "surprise_pct": 275.0, "surprise_label": "+275.0%", "surprise_band": "beat", "eps_yoy": null, "eps_yoy_label": "-", "one_week_reaction": 7.284774289567764, "one_week_reaction_label": "+7.3%", "four_week_reaction": 14.16040196796438, "four_week_reaction_label": "+14.2%", "confirmation": "confirmed", "revenue": 650500000.0, "revenue_yoy": null, "revenue_yoy_label": "-", "net_income": 6100000.0, "operating_cash_flow": 12500000.0, "free_cash_flow": 110800000.0, "currency": "USD"}, {"period_end": "2024-09-30", "reported_date": "2024-11-06", "date_source": "exact", "eps_actual": -0.48, "eps_estimate": -0.28, "eps_surprise": -0.2, "surprise_pct": -71.4286, "surprise_label": "-71.4%", "surprise_band": "miss", "eps_yoy": -308.695652173913, "eps_yoy_label": "-308.7%", "one_week_reaction": 9.631728181918211, "one_week_reaction_label": "+9.6%", "four_week_reaction": 2.1762897286233938, "four_week_reaction_label": "+2.2%", "confirmation": "diverged", "revenue": 600300000.0, "revenue_yoy": -18.05896805896806, "revenue_yoy_label": "-18.1%", "net_income": -106600000.0, "operating_cash_flow": 25500000.0, "free_cash_flow": 114900000.0, "currency": "USD"}, {"period_end": "2024-12-31", "reported_date": "2025-03-12", "date_source": "exact", "eps_actual": -0.44, "eps_estimate": -0.7, "eps_surprise": 0.26, "surprise_pct": 37.1429, "surprise_label": "+37.1%", "surprise_band": "beat", "eps_yoy": 8.33333333333333, "eps_yoy_label": "+8.3%", "one_week_reaction": 2.664567862485843, "one_week_reaction_label": "+2.7%", "four_week_reaction": -26.04939943504355, "four_week_reaction_label": "-26.0%", "confirmation": "confirmed", "revenue": 410199470.0, "revenue_yoy": -33.344252518687036, "revenue_yoy_label": "-33.3%", "net_income": -46210850.0, "operating_cash_flow": -76900000.0, "free_cash_flow": 35500000.0, "currency": "USD"}, {"period_end": "2025-03-31", "reported_date": "2025-04-29", "date_source": "exact", "eps_actual": -0.47, "eps_estimate": -1.07, "eps_surprise": 0.6, "surprise_pct": 56.0748, "surprise_label": "+56.1%", "surprise_band": "beat", "eps_yoy": -2450.0, "eps_yoy_label": "-2450.0%", "one_week_reaction": 12.280689685806408, "one_week_reaction_label": "+12.3%", "four_week_reaction": 6.134536925188139, "four_week_reaction_label": "+6.1%", "confirmation": "confirmed", "revenue": 517100000.0, "revenue_yoy": -16.677408959071865, "revenue_yoy_label": "-16.7%", "net_income": -24500000.0, "operating_cash_flow": 92100000.0, "free_cash_flow": 219100000.0, "currency": "USD"}, {"period_end": "2025-06-30", "reported_date": "2025-07-29", "date_source": "exact", "eps_actual": -0.91, "eps_estimate": -0.55, "eps_surprise": -0.36, "surprise_pct": -65.4545, "surprise_label": "-65.5%", "surprise_band": "miss", "eps_yoy": -1399.9999999999998, "eps_yoy_label": "-1400.0%", "one_week_reaction": -17.49598715890852, "one_week_reaction_label": "-17.5%", "four_week_reaction": -20.866773675762452, "four_week_reaction_label": "-20.9%", "confirmation": "confirmed", "revenue": 589700000.0, "revenue_yoy": -9.346656418139892, "revenue_yoy_label": "-9.3%", "net_income": -110600000.0, "operating_cash_flow": -37900000.0, "free_cash_flow": 59500000.0, "currency": "USD"}, {"period_end": "2025-09-30", "reported_date": "2025-10-29", "date_source": "exact", "eps_actual": -1.14, "eps_estimate": -0.98, "eps_surprise": -0.16, "surprise_pct": -16.3265, "surprise_label": "-16.3%", "surprise_band": "miss", "eps_yoy": -137.49999999999997, "eps_yoy_label": "-137.5%", "one_week_reaction": -7.333333333333335, "one_week_reaction_label": "-7.3%", "four_week_reaction": -25.111111111111107, "four_week_reaction_label": "-25.1%", "confirmation": "confirmed", "revenue": 523900000.0, "revenue_yoy": -12.726969848409128, "revenue_yoy_label": "-12.7%", "net_income": -485100000.0, "operating_cash_flow": -117300000.0, "free_cash_flow": -43600000.0, "currency": "USD"}, {"period_end": "2025-12-31", "reported_date": "2026-03-11", "date_source": "exact", "eps_actual": -2.5369, "eps_estimate": -0.6137, "eps_surprise": -1.9232, "surprise_pct": -313.3779, "surprise_label": "-313.4%", "surprise_band": "miss", "eps_yoy": -476.5681818181819, "eps_yoy_label": "-476.6%", "one_week_reaction": -21.36363636363637, "one_week_reaction_label": "-21.4%", "four_week_reaction": -5.909090909090924, "four_week_reaction_label": "-5.9%", "confirmation": "confirmed", "revenue": 455000000.0, "revenue_yoy": 10.92164502309084, "revenue_yoy_label": "+10.9%", "net_income": -364700000.0, "operating_cash_flow": -12200000.0, "free_cash_flow": 8200000.0, "currency": "USD"}, {"period_end": "2026-03-31", "reported_date": "2026-05-05", "date_source": "exact", "eps_actual": -1.5, "eps_estimate": -1.15, "eps_surprise": -0.35, "surprise_pct": -30.4348, "surprise_label": "-30.4%", "surprise_band": "miss", "eps_yoy": -219.1489361702128, "eps_yoy_label": "-219.1%", "one_week_reaction": 6.63900414937758, "one_week_reaction_label": "+6.6%", "four_week_reaction": 16.59751037344398, "four_week_reaction_label": "+16.6%", "confirmation": "diverged", "revenue": 296900000.0, "revenue_yoy": -42.58363952813769, "revenue_yoy_label": "-42.6%", "net_income": -159400000.0, "operating_cash_flow": -12200000.0, "free_cash_flow": 8200000.0, "currency": "USD"}, {"period_end": "2026-06-30", "reported_date": "2026-07-29", "date_source": "exact", "eps_actual": -0.64, "eps_estimate": -0.51, "eps_surprise": -0.13, "surprise_pct": -25.4902, "surprise_label": "-25.5%", "surprise_band": "miss", "eps_yoy": 29.67032967032967, "eps_yoy_label": "+29.7%", "one_week_reaction": -10.879629629629633, "one_week_reaction_label": "-10.9%", "four_week_reaction": null, "four_week_reaction_label": "-", "confirmation": "confirmed", "revenue": 267615900.0, "revenue_yoy": -54.61829743937595, "revenue_yoy_label": "-54.6%", "net_income": -96041593.0, "operating_cash_flow": -79400000.0, "free_cash_flow": -50400000.0, "currency": "USD"}], "charts": {"quarters": ["2023-09-30", "2023-12-31", "2024-03-31", "2024-06-30", "2024-09-30", "2024-12-31", "2025-03-31", "2025-06-30", "2025-09-30", "2025-12-31", "2026-03-31", "2026-06-30"], "eps_actual": [0.23, -0.48, 0.02, 0.07, -0.48, -0.44, -0.47, -0.91, -1.14, -2.5369, -1.5, -0.64], "eps_estimate": [0.31, -0.25, -0.02, -0.04, -0.28, -0.7, -1.07, -0.55, -0.98, -0.6137, -1.15, -0.51], "surprise": [-25.8065, -92.0, 200.0, 275.0, -71.4286, 37.1429, 56.0748, -65.4545, -16.3265, -313.3779, -30.4348, -25.4902], "reaction_1w": [6.025835388306182, -1.3221053178980557, -2.6425647498033897, 7.284774289567764, 9.631728181918211, 2.664567862485843, 12.280689685806408, -17.49598715890852, -7.333333333333335, -21.36363636363637, 6.63900414937758, -10.879629629629633], "reaction_4w": [12.912485102791676, -4.6037921803749535, 2.963939299337623, 14.16040196796438, 2.1762897286233938, -26.04939943504355, 6.134536925188139, -20.866773675762452, -25.111111111111107, -5.909090909090924, 16.59751037344398, null], "revenue": [732.6, 615.4, 620.6, 650.5, 600.3, 410.2, 517.1, 589.7, 523.9, 455.0, 296.9, 267.62], "net_income": [31.1, -84.8, 28.0, 6.1, -106.6, -46.21, -24.5, -110.6, -485.1, -364.7, -159.4, -96.04], "financial_unit": "millions", "scatter": [{"x": -25.8065, "y": 6.025835388306182, "label": "2023-09-30"}, {"x": -92.0, "y": -1.3221053178980557, "label": "2023-12-31"}, {"x": 200.0, "y": -2.6425647498033897, "label": "2024-03-31"}, {"x": 275.0, "y": 7.284774289567764, "label": "2024-06-30"}, {"x": -71.4286, "y": 9.631728181918211, "label": "2024-09-30"}, {"x": 37.1429, "y": 2.664567862485843, "label": "2024-12-31"}, {"x": 56.0748, "y": 12.280689685806408, "label": "2025-03-31"}, {"x": -65.4545, "y": -17.49598715890852, "label": "2025-06-30"}, {"x": -16.3265, "y": -7.333333333333335, "label": "2025-09-30"}, {"x": -313.3779, "y": -21.36363636363637, "label": "2025-12-31"}, {"x": -30.4348, "y": 6.63900414937758, "label": "2026-03-31"}, {"x": -25.4902, "y": -10.879629629629633, "label": "2026-06-30"}], "earnings_price": {"available": false, "dates": [], "price_index": [], "eps_index": [], "gap": [], "quarter_markers": [], "bridge_labels": [], "bridge_values": []}}, "earnings_price": {"available": false, "reason": "Earnings power must be positive through the latest visible week."}, "disclaimer": "Earnings intelligence is descriptive market research. It is not a forecast, recommendation or trading instruction."}