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"availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": -55.9845302668279, "key": "mixed", "status": "Mixed response", "tone": "neutral"}, {"date": "2024-11-01", "periodEnd": "2024-09-30", "earningsChangePct": -21.709974853310975, "surprisePct": 22.89156626506025, "immediateReturnPct": -6.366544799277807, "forward4WeekPct": 5.448462095365092, "forward13WeekPct": -7.230853427650019, "toDateReturnPct": 93.7738016476422, "weeksSince": 93, "availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": -58.52249133536449, "key": "resisted_deterioration", "status": "Price resisted deterioration", "tone": "caution"}, {"date": "2025-02-07", "periodEnd": "2024-12-31", "earningsChangePct": -34.68950749464669, "surprisePct": 31.818181818181824, "immediateReturnPct": 2.061592704066606, "forward4WeekPct": 8.018881209932193, "forward13WeekPct": -5.044743365998183, "toDateReturnPct": 108.87742186624453, "weeksSince": 79, "availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": -77.21734023358782, "key": "resisted_deterioration", "status": "Price resisted deterioration", "tone": "caution"}, {"date": "2025-05-02", "periodEnd": "2025-03-31", "earningsChangePct": -45.90163934426229, "surprisePct": -25.000000000000007, "immediateReturnPct": 3.0585748176239713, "forward4WeekPct": 10.218863294531477, "forward13WeekPct": 16.16298975210748, "toDateReturnPct": 134.67904047343987, "weeksSince": 67, "availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": -81.17027370964834, "key": "resisted_deterioration", "status": "Price resisted deterioration", "tone": "caution"}, {"date": "2025-08-01", "periodEnd": "2025-06-30", "earningsChangePct": 2.1212121212121238, "surprisePct": 39.1812865497076, "immediateReturnPct": -4.297031090616288, "forward4WeekPct": 7.939564272843858, "forward13WeekPct": 10.00817714773694, "toDateReturnPct": 93.3445494304364, "weeksSince": 54, "availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": -93.37719631418754, "key": "accepted_improvement", "status": "Positive four-week response", "tone": "positive"}, {"date": "2025-10-31", "periodEnd": "2025-09-30", "earningsChangePct": 14.243323442136502, "surprisePct": 16.66666666666666, "immediateReturnPct": 0.8593863963465065, "forward4WeekPct": 2.357921259655149, "forward13WeekPct": 7.290473251504714, "toDateReturnPct": 77.26511905058926, "weeksSince": 41, "availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": -107.46275841956714, "key": "accepted_improvement", "status": "Positive four-week response", "tone": "positive"}, {"date": "2026-02-06", "periodEnd": "2025-12-31", "earningsChangePct": 68.05194805194805, "surprisePct": 14.883720930232572, "immediateReturnPct": 9.919197532298796, "forward4WeekPct": 16.551349682708793, "forward13WeekPct": 20.484150560463732, "toDateReturnPct": 65.21981279274785, "weeksSince": 27, "availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": -115.03765444059778, "key": "accepted_improvement", "status": "Positive four-week response", "tone": "positive"}, {"date": "2026-05-01", "periodEnd": "2026-03-31", "earningsChangePct": 21.483771251931994, "surprisePct": 225.64102564102564, "immediateReturnPct": 8.191587278666269, "forward4WeekPct": 8.76408411559979, "forward13WeekPct": 30.902782155959542, "toDateReturnPct": 44.46428070414641, "weeksSince": 15, "availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": -126.3867841661447, "key": "accepted_improvement", "status": "Positive four-week response", "tone": "positive"}, {"date": "2026-07-31", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "earningsChangePct": 89.44020356234097, "surprisePct": 22.526041666666675, "immediateReturnPct": 2.3746191420418894, "forward4WeekPct": null, "forward13WeekPct": null, "toDateReturnPct": 12.980606470958067, "weeksSince": 2, "availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": -123.89880614793073, "key": "accepted_improvement", "status": "Positive initial response", "tone": "positive"}], "latestEvent": {"date": "2026-07-31", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "earningsChangePct": 89.44020356234097, "surprisePct": 22.526041666666675, "immediateReturnPct": 2.3746191420418894, "forward4WeekPct": null, "forward13WeekPct": null, "toDateReturnPct": 12.980606470958067, "weeksSince": 2, "availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": -123.89880614793073, "key": "accepted_improvement", "status": "Positive initial response", "tone": "positive"}, "freshImprovementAwaitingConfirmation": false, "improvementConfirmationReversed": false, "summary": "Across completed four-week windows, 0 improving updates had a non-positive price response; 4 had a meaningful positive price response."}, "professional": {"peerContext": {"available": true, "cohort": "Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing", "population": 8, "spreadPercentile": 71.4, "qualityPercentile": 71.4, "rarityPercentile": 71.4, "currentOneYearSpread": 217.39200299999996, "lead": "earnings", "relatedSignals": [{"tickerId": 3829, "symbol": "SUN", "name": "Sunoco LP", "spread": 247.34269700000002, "lead": "earnings", "quality": 100}, {"tickerId": 2713, "symbol": "MPC", "name": "Marathon Petroleum Corp", "spread": 177.42340299999998, "lead": "earnings", "quality": 87.5}, {"tickerId": 3592, "symbol": "SGU", "name": "Star Gas Partners LP", "spread": 23.107971000000003, "lead": "earnings", "quality": 75}, {"tickerId": 4245, "symbol": "VLO", "name": "Valero Energy Corporation", "spread": 689.754991, "lead": "earnings", "quality": 100}]}, "historicalOutcomes": {"available": false, "sampleSize": 0, "historyWeeks": 156, "horizons": []}, "transitions": [{"date": "2023-08-25", "key": "balanced", "label": "Broadly aligned", "tone": "neutral"}, {"date": "2023-11-03", "key": "fundamental_fracture", "label": "Fundamental fracture", "tone": "negative"}], "dataIntegrity": {"asOf": "2026-08-14", "exactReportDates": 13, "estimatedReportDates": 0, "coverage": 100}}, "alerts": [{"key": "fundamental_fracture", "label": "Fundamental fracture", "tone": "negative", "explanation": "Earnings have weakened while price has not adjusted to the same degree."}]}, "disclaimer": "Earnings intelligence is descriptive market research. It is not a forecast, recommendation or trading instruction."}