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2.8327964840786812, "toDateReturnPct": 3.6401829111910367, "weeksSince": 107, "availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": -6.276260842685829, "key": "accepted_deterioration", "status": "Negative four-week response", "tone": "negative"}, {"date": "2024-10-25", "periodEnd": "2024-09-30", "earningsChangePct": -2.9891304347826164, "surprisePct": -14.634146341463413, "immediateReturnPct": -7.407782508862216, "forward4WeekPct": -0.49077956267458145, "forward13WeekPct": -5.129525040133654, "toDateReturnPct": 0.785144870816934, "weeksSince": 93, "availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": -18.13433877213535, "key": "mixed", "status": "Mixed response", "tone": "neutral"}, {"date": "2025-01-31", "periodEnd": "2024-12-31", "earningsChangePct": -8.963585434173671, "surprisePct": -18.592964824120596, "immediateReturnPct": -9.789834704885491, "forward4WeekPct": -7.309653427792617, "forward13WeekPct": -5.548380218009285, "toDateReturnPct": 6.234468535603632, "weeksSince": 79, "availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": -17.78088513440815, "key": "accepted_deterioration", "status": "Negative four-week response", "tone": "negative"}, {"date": "2025-04-25", "periodEnd": "2025-03-31", "earningsChangePct": 13.230769230769246, "surprisePct": -5.3763440860215095, "immediateReturnPct": -2.3310276982082656, "forward4WeekPct": -3.3572111989237152, "forward13WeekPct": -13.046131965911634, "toDateReturnPct": 9.991176474218943, "weeksSince": 67, "availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": -12.82587316014424, "key": "unrecognised_improvement", "status": "Non-positive four-week response", "tone": "opportunity"}, {"date": "2025-07-25", "periodEnd": "2025-06-30", "earningsChangePct": 65.4891304347826, "surprisePct": -13.815789473684209, "immediateReturnPct": -13.291634177355593, "forward4WeekPct": -11.649830353480517, "forward13WeekPct": -13.277422312079112, "toDateReturnPct": 9.680631610899493, "weeksSince": 54, "availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": 46.23956904341709, "key": "unrecognised_improvement", "status": "Non-positive four-week response", "tone": "opportunity"}, {"date": "2025-10-24", "periodEnd": "2025-09-30", "earningsChangePct": 5.747126436781613, "surprisePct": -12.060301507537687, "immediateReturnPct": -4.793592100418087, "forward4WeekPct": -3.3919604152017446, "forward13WeekPct": -0.7899737076673685, "toDateReturnPct": 20.410384818226234, "weeksSince": 41, "availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": 53.39882461250831, "key": "unrecognised_improvement", "status": "Non-positive four-week response", "tone": "opportunity"}, {"date": "2026-01-30", "periodEnd": "2025-12-31", "earningsChangePct": 14.751552795031042, "surprisePct": 17.88990825688072, "immediateReturnPct": 5.008117217468455, "forward4WeekPct": 5.480401319651018, "forward13WeekPct": 3.0203631560282274, "toDateReturnPct": 21.36916934526816, "weeksSince": 27, "availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": 65.46181805459084, "key": "accepted_improvement", "status": "Positive four-week response", "tone": "positive"}, {"date": "2026-04-24", "periodEnd": "2026-03-31", "earningsChangePct": -0.9472259810554773, "surprisePct": -7.1428571428571495, "immediateReturnPct": -0.35036845608970024, "forward4WeekPct": 10.115002676207352, "forward13WeekPct": 16.950145620717237, "toDateReturnPct": 16.82873988458029, "weeksSince": 15, "availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": 65.24377309238713, "key": "mixed", "status": "Mixed response", "tone": "neutral"}, {"date": "2026-07-24", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "earningsChangePct": 8.743169398907092, "surprisePct": 13.372093023255813, "immediateReturnPct": -0.13477088948786742, "forward4WeekPct": null, "forward13WeekPct": null, "toDateReturnPct": -0.23844080447853466, "weeksSince": 2, "availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": 63.64370813929882, "key": "unrecognised_improvement", "status": "Non-positive initial response", "tone": "opportunity"}], "latestEvent": {"date": "2026-07-24", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "earningsChangePct": 8.743169398907092, "surprisePct": 13.372093023255813, "immediateReturnPct": -0.13477088948786742, "forward4WeekPct": null, "forward13WeekPct": null, "toDateReturnPct": -0.23844080447853466, "weeksSince": 2, "availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": 63.64370813929882, "key": "unrecognised_improvement", "status": "Non-positive initial response", "tone": "opportunity"}, "freshImprovementAwaitingConfirmation": true, "improvementConfirmationReversed": false, "summary": "Across completed four-week windows, 5 improving updates had a non-positive price response; 1 had a meaningful positive price response."}, "professional": {"peerContext": {"available": true, "cohort": "Insurance - Property & Casualty", "population": 29, "spreadPercentile": 28.6, "qualityPercentile": 71.4, "rarityPercentile": 50.0, "currentOneYearSpread": 4.0553500000000025, "lead": "aligned", "relatedSignals": [{"tickerId": 2667, "symbol": "MKL", "name": "Markel Corporation", "spread": 4.166652, "lead": "aligned", "quality": 87.5}, {"tickerId": 151, "symbol": "AIZ", "name": "Assurant, Inc.", "spread": 3.716497000000002, "lead": "aligned", "quality": 100}, {"tickerId": 1949, "symbol": "HMN", "name": "Horace Mann Educators Corporation", "spread": 4.423338999999999, "lead": "aligned", "quality": 75}, {"tickerId": 4376, "symbol": "WRB", "name": "W. R. Berkley Corp", "spread": 3.5477480000000003, "lead": "aligned", "quality": 100}, {"tickerId": 3031, "symbol": "ORI", "name": "Old Republic International Corp", "spread": 2.000251999999997, "lead": "aligned", "quality": 100}, {"tickerId": 105, "symbol": "AFG", "name": "American Financial Group, Inc.", "spread": 6.592840999999999, "lead": "aligned", "quality": 75}, {"tickerId": 3939, "symbol": "THG", "name": "The Hanover Insurance Group Inc", "spread": -2.381569, "lead": "aligned", "quality": 100}, {"tickerId": 644, "symbol": "CB", "name": "Chubb Ltd", "spread": -8.891027000000001, "lead": "aligned", "quality": 100}]}, "historicalOutcomes": {"available": false, "sampleSize": 0, "historyWeeks": 156, "horizons": []}, "transitions": [{"date": "2023-08-18", "key": "balanced", "label": "Broadly aligned", "tone": "neutral"}, {"date": "2023-11-03", "key": "confirmed_compounding", "label": "Confirmed compounding", "tone": "positive"}, {"date": "2024-02-02", "key": "unrecognised_improvement", "label": "Earnings ahead", "tone": "positive"}, {"date": "2024-07-19", "key": "shared_contraction", "label": "Shared contraction", "tone": "negative"}, {"date": "2024-10-25", "key": "fundamental_fracture", "label": "Fundamental fracture", "tone": "negative"}, {"date": "2025-07-25", "key": "unrecognised_improvement", "label": "Earnings ahead", "tone": "positive"}], "dataIntegrity": {"asOf": "2026-08-07", "exactReportDates": 13, "estimatedReportDates": 0, "coverage": 100}}, "alerts": [{"key": "persistent_earnings_lead", "label": "Persistent earnings lead", "tone": "positive", "explanation": "Earnings power has led market price across several updates."}, {"key": "quality_confirmed", "label": "Business quality supportive", "tone": "positive", "explanation": "Cash generation and operating evidence are broadly supportive."}, {"key": "improvement_awaiting_confirmation", "label": "Fresh improvement awaiting confirmation", "tone": "opportunity", "explanation": "Earnings improved at the latest reported update, but market price remains below its pre-update level."}]}, "disclaimer": "Earnings intelligence is descriptive market research. It is not a forecast, recommendation or trading instruction."}