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four-week response", "tone": "negative"}, {"date": "2025-04-25", "periodEnd": "2025-03-31", "earningsChangePct": -24.73312827935589, "surprisePct": -75.29411764705883, "immediateReturnPct": -2.2023683730897137, "forward4WeekPct": -0.6897985683108954, "forward13WeekPct": 2.914896152608737, "toDateReturnPct": 34.760006107345085, "weeksSince": 67, "availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": 143.27132915301607, "key": "mixed", "status": "Mixed response", "tone": "neutral"}, {"date": "2025-07-25", "periodEnd": "2025-06-30", "earningsChangePct": -0.28846153846154854, "surprisePct": 25.664621676891613, "immediateReturnPct": 4.78894709105302, "forward4WeekPct": 5.068655593499272, "forward13WeekPct": 3.3395070586274445, "toDateReturnPct": 37.21394742538067, "weeksSince": 54, "availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": 135.46673090426205, "key": "mixed", "status": "Mixed response", "tone": "neutral"}, {"date": "2025-10-31", "periodEnd": "2025-09-30", "earningsChangePct": -16.875602700096437, "surprisePct": 64.42105263157893, "immediateReturnPct": 4.374794564607987, "forward4WeekPct": 7.283108955673523, "forward13WeekPct": 15.886857752278317, "toDateReturnPct": 32.77975803342596, "weeksSince": 40, "availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": 84.70177531076061, "key": "resisted_deterioration", "status": "Price resisted deterioration", "tone": "caution"}, {"date": "2026-02-06", "periodEnd": "2025-12-31", "earningsChangePct": 15.313225058004654, "surprisePct": 28.146013448607103, "immediateReturnPct": 6.695065607622963, "forward4WeekPct": 6.063187717788798, "forward13WeekPct": 6.701776412581384, "toDateReturnPct": 14.577063015426805, "weeksSince": 26, "availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": 93.10474111576698, "key": "accepted_improvement", "status": "Positive four-week response", "tone": "positive"}, {"date": "2026-05-01", "periodEnd": "2026-03-31", "earningsChangePct": 38.32997987927567, "surprisePct": 22.549019607843128, "immediateReturnPct": -3.2581292357452663, "forward4WeekPct": -9.383282613330291, "forward13WeekPct": 3.5688016550733392, "toDateReturnPct": 4.180543123690406, "weeksSince": 14, "availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": 195.1184678911987, "key": "unrecognised_improvement", "status": "Non-positive four-week response", "tone": "opportunity"}, {"date": "2026-07-24", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "earningsChangePct": 1.1454545454545606, "surprisePct": 12.93706293706294, "immediateReturnPct": 1.8696217420912653, "forward4WeekPct": null, "forward13WeekPct": null, "toDateReturnPct": -0.3683526279947946, "weeksSince": 2, "availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": 181.99999014769145, "key": "mixed", "status": "Mixed response", "tone": "neutral"}], "latestEvent": {"date": "2026-07-24", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "earningsChangePct": 1.1454545454545606, "surprisePct": 12.93706293706294, "immediateReturnPct": 1.8696217420912653, "forward4WeekPct": null, "forward13WeekPct": null, "toDateReturnPct": -0.3683526279947946, "weeksSince": 2, "availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": 181.99999014769145, "key": "mixed", "status": "Mixed response", "tone": "neutral"}, "freshImprovementAwaitingConfirmation": false, "improvementConfirmationReversed": false, "summary": "Across completed four-week windows, 1 improving update had a non-positive price response; 5 had a meaningful positive price response."}, "professional": {"peerContext": {"available": true, "cohort": "Insurance - Reinsurance", "population": 6, "spreadPercentile": 40.0, "qualityPercentile": 10.0, "rarityPercentile": 50.0, "currentOneYearSpread": -2.903481000000002, "lead": "aligned", "relatedSignals": []}, "historicalOutcomes": {"available": false, "sampleSize": 0, "historyWeeks": 156, "horizons": []}, "transitions": [{"date": "2023-08-18", "key": "balanced", "label": "Broadly aligned", "tone": "neutral"}, {"date": "2023-11-03", "key": "unrecognised_improvement", "label": "Earnings ahead", "tone": "positive"}], "dataIntegrity": {"asOf": "2026-08-07", "exactReportDates": 13, "estimatedReportDates": 0, "coverage": 100}}, "alerts": [{"key": "persistent_earnings_lead", "label": "Persistent earnings lead", "tone": "positive", "explanation": "Earnings power has led market price across several updates."}, {"key": "base_sensitive", "label": "Starting-base sensitivity", "tone": "caution", "explanation": "The three-year earnings move begins from an unusually depressed level; compare the shorter horizons before relying on its scale."}]}, "disclaimer": "Earnings intelligence is descriptive market research. It is not a forecast, recommendation or trading instruction."}