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"surprisePct": 2.5641025641025665, "immediateReturnPct": -8.816179915664534, "forward4WeekPct": -14.895361549273778, "forward13WeekPct": -18.616273621739808, "toDateReturnPct": 137.42776823364048, "weeksSince": 48, "availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": -82.53768212673444, "key": "unrecognised_improvement", "status": "Non-positive four-week response", "tone": "opportunity"}, {"date": "2026-02-06", "periodEnd": "2025-12-31", "earningsChangePct": 11.796246648793574, "surprisePct": 15.909090909090907, "immediateReturnPct": -11.950323152959063, "forward4WeekPct": -18.71330207409284, "forward13WeekPct": 92.28234697756939, "toDateReturnPct": 156.8749207958434, "weeksSince": 35, "availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": -40.561080660517064, "key": "unrecognised_improvement", "status": "Non-positive four-week response", "tone": "opportunity"}, {"date": "2026-05-08", "periodEnd": "2026-03-31", "earningsChangePct": 9.832134292565954, "surprisePct": 6.201550387596905, "immediateReturnPct": 26.25228823431518, "forward4WeekPct": 29.35596605092361, "forward13WeekPct": 34.06556831419536, "toDateReturnPct": 68.66367115992678, "weeksSince": 22, "availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": -266.7825739933967, "key": "accepted_improvement", "status": "Positive four-week response", "tone": "positive"}, {"date": "2026-08-07", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "earningsChangePct": 25.764192139737972, "surprisePct": 22.962962962962948, "immediateReturnPct": 1.5142287094403128, "forward4WeekPct": 0.29822534915469046, "forward13WeekPct": null, "toDateReturnPct": 27.711855507718177, "weeksSince": 9, "availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": -247.9950687825941, "key": "mixed", "status": "Mixed response", "tone": "neutral"}], "latestEvent": {"date": "2026-08-07", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "earningsChangePct": 25.764192139737972, "surprisePct": 22.962962962962948, "immediateReturnPct": 1.5142287094403128, "forward4WeekPct": 0.29822534915469046, "forward13WeekPct": null, "toDateReturnPct": 27.711855507718177, "weeksSince": 9, "availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": -247.9950687825941, "key": "mixed", "status": "Mixed response", "tone": "neutral"}, "freshImprovementAwaitingConfirmation": false, "improvementConfirmationReversed": false, "summary": "Across completed four-week windows, 4 improving updates had a non-positive price response; 4 had a meaningful positive price response."}, "professional": {"peerContext": {"available": true, "cohort": "Semiconductors", "population": 24, "spreadPercentile": 13.0, "qualityPercentile": 84.8, "rarityPercentile": 87.0, "currentOneYearSpread": -157.92886000000001, "lead": "price", "relatedSignals": [{"tickerId": 8633, "symbol": "TSEM", "name": "Tower Semiconductor Ltd", "spread": -183.60360500000002, "lead": "price", "quality": 50}, {"tickerId": 3810, "symbol": "STM", "name": "STMicroelectronics NV ADR", "spread": -128.57885100000001, "lead": "price", "quality": 66.66666666666667}, {"tickerId": 7191, "symbol": "MPWR", "name": "Monolithic Power Systems Inc", "spread": -114.325265, "lead": "price", "quality": 62.5}, {"tickerId": 7004, "symbol": "LSCC", "name": "Lattice Semiconductor Corporation", "spread": -69.482935, "lead": "price", "quality": 75}, {"tickerId": 275, "symbol": "ASX", "name": "ASE Industrial Holding Co Ltd ADR", "spread": -247.239513, "lead": "price", "quality": 37.5}, {"tickerId": 4846, "symbol": "ARM", "name": "Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares", "spread": -52.091628, "lead": "price", "quality": 87.5}, {"tickerId": 8682, "symbol": "TXN", "name": "Texas Instruments Incorporated", "spread": -46.228851000000006, "lead": "price", "quality": 100}, {"tickerId": 8442, "symbol": "SWKS", "name": "Skyworks Solutions Inc", "spread": -40.603924, "lead": "price", "quality": 50}]}, "historicalOutcomes": {"available": true, "sampleSize": 15, "historyWeeks": 156, "horizons": [{"weeks": 13, "observations": 15, "medianReturn": -11.66187209559636, "positiveRate": 40.0, "downsideDecile": -35.06737165273751, "bestReturn": 17.10262298898053, "worstReturn": -40.148647718670425}], "note": "Comparable outcomes use the available three-year peer history, are descriptive, include overlapping periods and are not a forecast."}, "transitions": [{"date": "2023-10-20", "key": "balanced", "label": "Broadly aligned", "tone": "neutral"}, {"date": "2023-11-03", "key": "confirmed_compounding", "label": "Confirmed compounding", "tone": "positive"}, {"date": "2024-02-02", "key": "expectations_ahead", "label": "Expectations ahead", "tone": "caution"}, {"date": "2025-02-07", "key": "unrecognised_improvement", "label": "Earnings ahead", "tone": "positive"}, {"date": "2025-08-08", "key": "expectations_ahead", "label": "Expectations ahead", "tone": "caution"}], "dataIntegrity": {"asOf": "2026-10-09", "exactReportDates": 13, "estimatedReportDates": 0, "coverage": 100}}, "alerts": [{"key": "quality_confirmed", "label": "Business quality supportive", "tone": "positive", "explanation": "Cash generation and operating evidence are broadly supportive."}, {"key": "expectations_stretched", "label": "Expectations stretched", "tone": "caution", "explanation": "Price has moved materially faster than delivered earnings power."}]}, "disclaimer": "Earnings intelligence is descriptive market research. It is not a forecast, recommendation or trading instruction."}