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four-week response", "tone": "positive"}, {"date": "2024-07-26", "periodEnd": "2024-06-30", "earningsChangePct": 2.2094140249759864, "surprisePct": 4.466019417475719, "immediateReturnPct": 3.917192565628347, "forward4WeekPct": 6.241342148045481, "forward13WeekPct": 11.165625539106472, "toDateReturnPct": 38.28838050387191, "weeksSince": 106, "availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": -8.528367042993068, "key": "accepted_improvement", "status": "Positive four-week response", "tone": "positive"}, {"date": "2024-11-01", "periodEnd": "2024-09-30", "earningsChangePct": 3.6184210526315708, "surprisePct": 14.629258517034058, "immediateReturnPct": -3.673738566769935, "forward4WeekPct": 0.2569531792080637, "forward13WeekPct": -5.282779355084688, "toDateReturnPct": 24.39850883151289, "weeksSince": 92, "availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": -8.051040953568986, "key": "mixed", "status": "Mixed response", "tone": "neutral"}, {"date": "2025-01-31", "periodEnd": "2024-12-31", "earningsChangePct": 2.176870748299331, "surprisePct": 10.458715596330263, "immediateReturnPct": 1.9422574281066085, "forward4WeekPct": 7.041619799846877, "forward13WeekPct": 8.06127289278027, "toDateReturnPct": 33.887636531440556, "weeksSince": 79, "availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": -2.7907262801101638, "key": "accepted_improvement", "status": "Positive four-week response", "tone": "positive"}, {"date": "2025-04-25", "periodEnd": "2025-03-31", "earningsChangePct": -7.6786506879716, "surprisePct": 13.931888544891645, "immediateReturnPct": -2.2689870308158944, "forward4WeekPct": 0.1785777011011458, "forward13WeekPct": -5.437747608873044, "toDateReturnPct": 24.645941621222313, "weeksSince": 67, "availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": -17.3797383206107, "key": "resisted_deterioration", "status": "Price resisted deterioration", "tone": "caution"}, {"date": "2025-07-25", "periodEnd": "2025-06-30", "earningsChangePct": 3.653846153846141, "surprisePct": 2.847571189279731, "immediateReturnPct": -1.816656280251372, "forward4WeekPct": 1.298653928630955, "forward13WeekPct": 3.2077330065273912, "toDateReturnPct": 29.419033705425292, "weeksSince": 54, "availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": -8.149134340827317, "key": "mixed", "status": "Mixed response", "tone": "neutral"}, {"date": "2025-10-24", "periodEnd": "2025-09-30", "earningsChangePct": 8.209647495361772, "surprisePct": 21.59090909090909, "immediateReturnPct": 5.119122871256376, "forward4WeekPct": 11.21509260843483, "forward13WeekPct": 12.54473229333355, "toDateReturnPct": 31.815852452639938, "weeksSince": 41, "availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": -4.537764827869751, "key": "accepted_improvement", "status": "Positive four-week response", "tone": "positive"}, {"date": "2026-02-06", "periodEnd": "2025-12-31", "earningsChangePct": 6.429489927132459, "surprisePct": 10.914454277286126, "immediateReturnPct": 6.9162682788408425, "forward4WeekPct": 5.956842009309837, "forward13WeekPct": 3.5606959513265313, "toDateReturnPct": 13.850319190392192, "weeksSince": 26, "availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": -21.31500111571023, "key": "accepted_improvement", "status": "Positive four-week response", "tone": "positive"}, {"date": "2026-04-24", "periodEnd": "2026-03-31", "earningsChangePct": 12.645992750704792, "surprisePct": 3.1770045385779113, "immediateReturnPct": -1.4236920275499276, "forward4WeekPct": -0.8886740817087735, "forward13WeekPct": 9.079665526421564, "toDateReturnPct": 6.217366589466966, "weeksSince": 15, "availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": -0.3291409052830261, "key": "unrecognised_improvement", "status": "Non-positive four-week response", "tone": "opportunity"}, {"date": "2026-07-24", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "earningsChangePct": 4.004290311047565, "surprisePct": 9.502262443438912, "immediateReturnPct": 2.155270331667425, "forward4WeekPct": null, "forward13WeekPct": null, "toDateReturnPct": -0.5253293957292238, "weeksSince": 2, "availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": -11.604200391371194, "key": "accepted_improvement", "status": "Positive initial response", "tone": "positive"}], "latestEvent": {"date": "2026-07-24", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "earningsChangePct": 4.004290311047565, "surprisePct": 9.502262443438912, "immediateReturnPct": 2.155270331667425, "forward4WeekPct": null, "forward13WeekPct": null, "toDateReturnPct": -0.5253293957292238, "weeksSince": 2, "availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": -11.604200391371194, "key": "accepted_improvement", "status": "Positive initial response", "tone": "positive"}, "freshImprovementAwaitingConfirmation": false, "improvementConfirmationReversed": true, "summary": "Across completed four-week windows, 1 improving update had a non-positive price response; 7 had a meaningful positive price response."}, "professional": {"peerContext": {"available": true, "cohort": "Insurance - Property & Casualty", "population": 29, "spreadPercentile": 10.7, "qualityPercentile": 71.4, "rarityPercentile": 50.0, "currentOneYearSpread": -8.891027000000001, "lead": "aligned", "relatedSignals": [{"tickerId": 3939, "symbol": "THG", "name": "The Hanover Insurance Group Inc", "spread": -2.381569, "lead": "aligned", "quality": 100}, {"tickerId": 3031, "symbol": "ORI", "name": "Old Republic International Corp", "spread": 2.000251999999997, "lead": "aligned", "quality": 100}, {"tickerId": 4376, "symbol": "WRB", "name": "W. R. Berkley Corp", "spread": 3.5477480000000003, "lead": "aligned", "quality": 100}, {"tickerId": 151, "symbol": "AIZ", "name": "Assurant, Inc.", "spread": 3.716497000000002, "lead": "aligned", "quality": 100}, {"tickerId": 8225, "symbol": "SIGI", "name": "Selective Insurance Group, Inc.", "spread": 4.0553500000000025, "lead": "aligned", "quality": 100}, {"tickerId": 2667, "symbol": "MKL", "name": "Markel Corporation", "spread": 4.166652, "lead": "aligned", "quality": 87.5}, {"tickerId": 1949, "symbol": "HMN", "name": "Horace Mann Educators Corporation", "spread": 4.423338999999999, "lead": "aligned", "quality": 75}, {"tickerId": 105, "symbol": "AFG", "name": "American Financial Group, Inc.", "spread": 6.592840999999999, "lead": "aligned", "quality": 75}]}, "historicalOutcomes": {"available": false, "sampleSize": 0, "historyWeeks": 156, "horizons": []}, "transitions": [{"date": "2023-08-18", "key": "balanced", "label": "Broadly aligned", "tone": "neutral"}, {"date": "2023-10-27", "key": "confirmed_compounding", "label": "Confirmed compounding", "tone": "positive"}, {"date": "2025-04-25", "key": "expectations_ahead", "label": "Expectations ahead", "tone": "caution"}, {"date": "2025-07-25", "key": "confirmed_compounding", "label": "Confirmed compounding", "tone": "positive"}, {"date": "2026-02-06", "key": "expectations_ahead", "label": "Expectations ahead", "tone": "caution"}, {"date": "2026-04-24", "key": "confirmed_compounding", "label": "Confirmed compounding", "tone": "positive"}, {"date": "2026-07-24", "key": "expectations_ahead", "label": "Expectations ahead", "tone": "caution"}], "dataIntegrity": {"asOf": "2026-08-07", "exactReportDates": 13, "estimatedReportDates": 0, "coverage": 100}}, "alerts": [{"key": "quality_confirmed", "label": "Business quality supportive", "tone": "positive", "explanation": "Cash generation and operating evidence are broadly supportive."}]}, "disclaimer": "Earnings intelligence is descriptive market research. It is not a forecast, recommendation or trading instruction."}