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"forward13WeekPct": -1.142181903614492, "toDateReturnPct": 128.17686478706213, "weeksSince": 66, "availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": 5.230732045954582, "key": "unrecognised_improvement", "status": "Non-positive four-week response", "tone": "opportunity"}, {"date": "2025-08-01", "periodEnd": "2025-06-30", "earningsChangePct": 0.9090909090909038, "surprisePct": 10.185185185185173, "immediateReturnPct": -6.650371442992132, "forward4WeekPct": -0.3353145285932557, "forward13WeekPct": 43.96355807240826, "toDateReturnPct": 115.46323784333703, "weeksSince": 53, "availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": 4.304225970059505, "key": "mixed", "status": "Mixed response", "tone": "neutral"}, {"date": "2025-10-31", "periodEnd": "2025-09-30", "earningsChangePct": 5.405405405405395, "surprisePct": 7.258064516129038, "immediateReturnPct": 7.31405629664128, "forward4WeekPct": 5.730768177208323, "forward13WeekPct": 49.3001912922163, "toDateReturnPct": 60.6117155297514, "weeksSince": 40, "availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": -57.675286795851605, "key": "accepted_improvement", "status": "Positive four-week response", "tone": "positive"}, {"date": "2026-01-30", "periodEnd": "2025-12-31", "earningsChangePct": 12.393162393162394, "surprisePct": 2.6490066225165587, "immediateReturnPct": 3.2664139293670846, "forward4WeekPct": 19.996048388136867, "forward13WeekPct": -5.905068596835528, "toDateReturnPct": 11.09025215740469, "weeksSince": 27, "availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": -117.36299157113092, "key": "accepted_improvement", "status": "Positive four-week response", "tone": "positive"}, {"date": "2026-05-01", "periodEnd": "2026-03-31", "earningsChangePct": 13.878326996197732, "surprisePct": 6.0773480662983355, "immediateReturnPct": -5.126642001367776, "forward4WeekPct": 7.642794863409619, "forward13WeekPct": 2.809278878690913, "toDateReturnPct": 12.009277289651443, "weeksSince": 14, "availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": -71.4154855379121, "key": "accepted_improvement", "status": "Positive four-week response", "tone": "positive"}, {"date": "2026-07-24", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "earningsChangePct": 13.68948247078463, "surprisePct": 2.0304568527918687, "immediateReturnPct": 3.9482838589981473, "forward4WeekPct": null, "forward13WeekPct": null, "toDateReturnPct": 15.410482374768097, "weeksSince": 2, "availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": -62.87083453834572, "key": "accepted_improvement", "status": "Positive initial response", "tone": "positive"}], "latestEvent": {"date": "2026-07-24", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "earningsChangePct": 13.68948247078463, "surprisePct": 2.0304568527918687, "immediateReturnPct": 3.9482838589981473, "forward4WeekPct": null, "forward13WeekPct": null, "toDateReturnPct": 15.410482374768097, "weeksSince": 2, "availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": -62.87083453834572, "key": "accepted_improvement", "status": "Positive initial response", "tone": "positive"}, "freshImprovementAwaitingConfirmation": false, "improvementConfirmationReversed": false, "summary": "Across completed four-week windows, 2 improving updates had a non-positive price response; 4 had a meaningful positive price response."}, "professional": {"peerContext": {"available": true, "cohort": "Basic Materials", "population": 25, "spreadPercentile": 12.5, "qualityPercentile": 70.8, "rarityPercentile": 87.5, "currentOneYearSpread": -54.36585199999999, "lead": "price", "relatedSignals": [{"tickerId": 8402, "symbol": "STLD", "name": "Steel Dynamics Inc", "spread": -60.970276, "lead": "price", "quality": 75}, {"tickerId": 2830, "symbol": "NEM", "name": "Newmont Goldcorp Corp", "spread": -38.468664000000004, "lead": "price", "quality": 100}, {"tickerId": 884, "symbol": "CTVA", "name": "Corteva Inc", "spread": -37.38265, "lead": "price", "quality": 75}, {"tickerId": 3769, "symbol": "SQM", "name": "Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile SA ADR B", "spread": -37.091432, "lead": "price", "quality": 75}, {"tickerId": 1443, "symbol": "FCX", "name": "Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc", "spread": -13.630076999999996, "lead": "price", "quality": 62.5}, {"tickerId": 4196, "symbol": "VALE", "name": "Vale SA ADR", "spread": -112.26011, "lead": "price", "quality": 87.5}, {"tickerId": 2744, "symbol": "MT", "name": "ArcelorMittal SA ADR", "spread": -148.020575, "lead": "price", "quality": 100}]}, "historicalOutcomes": {"available": false, "sampleSize": 0, "historyWeeks": 156, "horizons": []}, "transitions": [{"date": "2023-08-18", "key": "balanced", "label": "Broadly aligned", "tone": "neutral"}, {"date": "2023-10-27", "key": "unrecognised_improvement", "label": "Earnings ahead", "tone": "positive"}, {"date": "2024-02-02", "key": "fundamental_fracture", "label": "Fundamental fracture", "tone": "negative"}, {"date": "2024-07-26", "key": "expectations_ahead", "label": "Expectations ahead", "tone": "caution"}, {"date": "2025-05-02", "key": "confirmed_compounding", "label": "Confirmed compounding", "tone": "positive"}, {"date": "2025-10-31", "key": "expectations_ahead", "label": "Expectations ahead", "tone": "caution"}], "dataIntegrity": {"asOf": "2026-08-07", "exactReportDates": 13, "estimatedReportDates": 0, "coverage": 100}}, "alerts": [{"key": "quality_confirmed", "label": "Business quality supportive", "tone": "positive", "explanation": "Cash generation and operating evidence are broadly supportive."}, {"key": "expectations_stretched", "label": "Expectations stretched", "tone": "caution", "explanation": "Price has moved materially faster than delivered earnings power."}]}, "disclaimer": "Earnings intelligence is descriptive market research. It is not a forecast, recommendation or trading instruction."}