{"ticker": {"uuid": "82a7af16-ce95-4b20-8434-6af79e2fc35a", "symbol": "AA", "name": "Alcoa Corp", "sector": "Basic Materials", "industry": "Aluminum", "currency": "USD"}, "next_event": {"report_date": "2026-10-15", "fiscal_date_ending": "2026-09-30", "estimate": 1.66, "session": "Time unconfirmed", "days": 63}, "profile": {"sample": 12, "measured": 12, "beats": 7, "misses": 4, "inline": 1, "beat_rate": 58.3, "beat_rate_label": "58.3%", "average_surprise": 19.5, "average_surprise_label": "+19.5%", "median_surprise": 13.9, "surprise_dispersion": 45.7, "average_reaction": -3.9, "average_reaction_label": "-3.9%", "average_abs_reaction": 6.5, "positive_response_rate": 25.0, "confirmation_rate": 60.0, "reaction_sample": 12, "streak": {"count": 2, "band": "miss", "label": "2 consecutive misses"}, "profile": "Mixed earnings transmission", "profile_tone": "neutral", "profile_text": "Delivery and market response do not currently form a persistent directional pattern."}, "event_risk": {"score": 49, "band": "Elevated", "tone": "caution", "days": 63, "proximity_component": 3, "reaction_component": 16, "variability_component": 25, "uncertainty_component": 5, "explanation": "Event risk combines report proximity, historical price movement, surprise variability, estimate availability and confirmed timing. It measures uncertainty, not direction."}, "evidence": {"score": 100, "band": "Deep", "exact": 12, "surprise": 12, "reaction": 12, "financial": 12, "total": 12}, "factor_context": {"available": true, "as_of": "2026-08-09", "eps_growth_1y": 27.2, "revenue_growth_1y": 3.1, "cash_conversion": 1.37, "net_margin": 9.4, "earnings_yield": 9.4, "eps_surprise_avg": 16.5, "sue_score": 0.71, "pe_ratio": 10.4, "completeness": 100.0, "source": "alphavantage"}, "market_context": {"available": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "close": 50.17, "currency": "USD", "return_13w": -20.5, "fair_value": 38.611934, "fair_value_gap": 29.9, "relative_strength": -12.7, "trend_signal": "Inactive", "expectation_direction": "undecided", "expectation_probability": 52.0}, "records": [{"period_end": "2023-09-30", "reported_date": "2023-10-18", "date_source": "exact", "eps_actual": -1.14, "eps_estimate": -1.07, "eps_surprise": -0.07, "surprise_pct": -6.5421, "surprise_label": "-6.5%", "surprise_band": "miss", "eps_yoy": null, "eps_yoy_label": "-", "one_week_reaction": -9.668925676909122, "one_week_reaction_label": "-9.7%", "four_week_reaction": -6.9326021696840945, "four_week_reaction_label": "-6.9%", "confirmation": "confirmed", "revenue": 2654000000.0, "revenue_yoy": null, "revenue_yoy_label": "-", "net_income": -168000000.0, "operating_cash_flow": 69000000.0, "free_cash_flow": 214000000.0, "currency": "USD"}, {"period_end": "2023-12-31", "reported_date": "2024-01-17", "date_source": "exact", "eps_actual": -0.56, "eps_estimate": -0.86, "eps_surprise": 0.3, "surprise_pct": 34.8837, "surprise_label": "+34.9%", "surprise_band": "beat", "eps_yoy": null, "eps_yoy_label": "-", "one_week_reaction": -8.891108795364909, "one_week_reaction_label": "-8.9%", "four_week_reaction": -10.456212458855232, "four_week_reaction_label": "-10.5%", "confirmation": "diverged", "revenue": 2596000000.0, "revenue_yoy": null, "revenue_yoy_label": "-", "net_income": -150000000.0, "operating_cash_flow": 198000000.0, "free_cash_flow": 386000000.0, "currency": "USD"}, {"period_end": "2024-03-31", "reported_date": "2024-04-17", "date_source": "exact", "eps_actual": -0.81, "eps_estimate": -0.44, "eps_surprise": -0.37, "surprise_pct": -84.0909, "surprise_label": "-84.1%", "surprise_band": "miss", "eps_yoy": null, "eps_yoy_label": "-", "one_week_reaction": 0.9374995726629738, "one_week_reaction_label": "+0.9%", "four_week_reaction": 5.454545613246998, "four_week_reaction_label": "+5.5%", "confirmation": "contained", "revenue": 2652000000.0, "revenue_yoy": null, "revenue_yoy_label": "-", "net_income": -252000000.0, "operating_cash_flow": -223000000.0, "free_cash_flow": -122000000.0, "currency": "USD"}, {"period_end": "2024-06-30", "reported_date": "2024-07-17", "date_source": "exact", "eps_actual": 0.16, "eps_estimate": 0.09, "eps_surprise": 0.07, "surprise_pct": 77.7778, "surprise_label": "+77.8%", "surprise_band": "beat", "eps_yoy": null, "eps_yoy_label": "-", "one_week_reaction": -10.346598091698468, "one_week_reaction_label": "-10.3%", "four_week_reaction": -21.54043683751736, "four_week_reaction_label": "-21.5%", "confirmation": "diverged", "revenue": 2831000000.0, "revenue_yoy": null, "revenue_yoy_label": "-", "net_income": 20000000.0, "operating_cash_flow": 287000000.0, "free_cash_flow": 451000000.0, "currency": "USD"}, {"period_end": "2024-09-30", "reported_date": "2024-10-16", "date_source": "exact", "eps_actual": 0.57, "eps_estimate": 0.3, "eps_surprise": 0.27, "surprise_pct": 90.0, "surprise_label": "+90.0%", "surprise_band": "beat", "eps_yoy": 150.0, "eps_yoy_label": "+150.0%", "one_week_reaction": 1.6821062175852515, "one_week_reaction_label": "+1.7%", "four_week_reaction": 9.432778903897784, "four_week_reaction_label": "+9.4%", "confirmation": "confirmed", "revenue": 2830000000.0, "revenue_yoy": 6.631499623210249, "revenue_yoy_label": "+6.6%", "net_income": 90000000.0, "operating_cash_flow": 143000000.0, "free_cash_flow": 289000000.0, "currency": "USD"}, {"period_end": "2024-12-31", "reported_date": "2025-01-22", "date_source": "exact", "eps_actual": 1.04, "eps_estimate": 1.01, "eps_surprise": 0.03, "surprise_pct": 2.9703, "surprise_label": "+3.0%", "surprise_band": "beat", "eps_yoy": 285.7142857142857, "eps_yoy_label": "+285.7%", "one_week_reaction": -5.312422275112096, "one_week_reaction_label": "-5.3%", "four_week_reaction": -8.322793526894637, "four_week_reaction_label": "-8.3%", "confirmation": "diverged", "revenue": 3977000000.0, "revenue_yoy": 53.197226502311246, "revenue_yoy_label": "+53.2%", "net_income": 202000000.0, "operating_cash_flow": 415000000.0, "free_cash_flow": 584000000.0, "currency": "USD"}, {"period_end": "2025-03-31", "reported_date": "2025-04-16", "date_source": "exact", "eps_actual": 2.15, "eps_estimate": 1.41, "eps_surprise": 0.74, "surprise_pct": 52.4823, "surprise_label": "+52.5%", "surprise_band": "beat", "eps_yoy": 365.4320987654321, "eps_yoy_label": "+365.4%", "one_week_reaction": -5.7777748133963955, "one_week_reaction_label": "-5.8%", "four_week_reaction": 4.727272161841365, "four_week_reaction_label": "+4.7%", "confirmation": "diverged", "revenue": 3369000000.0, "revenue_yoy": 27.036199095022624, "revenue_yoy_label": "+27.0%", "net_income": 548000000.0, "operating_cash_flow": 75000000.0, "free_cash_flow": 168000000.0, "currency": "USD"}, {"period_end": "2025-06-30", "reported_date": "2025-07-16", "date_source": "exact", "eps_actual": 0.39, "eps_estimate": 0.39, "eps_surprise": 0.0, "surprise_pct": 0.0, "surprise_label": "0.0%", "surprise_band": "in-line", "eps_yoy": 143.75, "eps_yoy_label": "+143.8%", "one_week_reaction": -2.4445152480507586, "one_week_reaction_label": "-2.4%", "four_week_reaction": -2.959151062235331, "four_week_reaction_label": "-3.0%", "confirmation": "contained", "revenue": 3018000000.0, "revenue_yoy": 6.605439773931473, "revenue_yoy_label": "+6.6%", "net_income": 164000000.0, "operating_cash_flow": 488000000.0, "free_cash_flow": 619000000.0, "currency": "USD"}, {"period_end": "2025-09-30", "reported_date": "2025-10-22", "date_source": "exact", "eps_actual": -0.02, "eps_estimate": -0.05, "eps_surprise": 0.03, "surprise_pct": 60.0, "surprise_label": "+60.0%", "surprise_band": "beat", "eps_yoy": -103.50877192982458, "eps_yoy_label": "-103.5%", "one_week_reaction": 9.591326158739426, "one_week_reaction_label": "+9.6%", "four_week_reaction": 4.800133915311151, "four_week_reaction_label": "+4.8%", "confirmation": "confirmed", "revenue": 2995000000.0, "revenue_yoy": 5.830388692579505, "revenue_yoy_label": "+5.8%", "net_income": 232000000.0, "operating_cash_flow": 255000000.0, "free_cash_flow": 444000000.0, "currency": "USD"}, {"period_end": "2025-12-31", "reported_date": "2026-01-22", "date_source": "exact", "eps_actual": 1.26, "eps_estimate": 1.01, "eps_surprise": 0.25, "surprise_pct": 24.7525, "surprise_label": "+24.8%", "surprise_band": "beat", "eps_yoy": 21.15384615384615, "eps_yoy_label": "+21.2%", "one_week_reaction": 3.5625112905681675, "one_week_reaction_label": "+3.6%", "four_week_reaction": -0.1997661298202751, "four_week_reaction_label": "-0.2%", "confirmation": "confirmed", "revenue": 3449000000.0, "revenue_yoy": -13.2763389489565, "revenue_yoy_label": "-13.3%", "net_income": 213000000.0, "operating_cash_flow": 367000000.0, "free_cash_flow": 572000000.0, "currency": "USD"}, {"period_end": "2026-03-31", "reported_date": "2026-04-16", "date_source": "exact", "eps_actual": 1.4, "eps_estimate": 1.55, "eps_surprise": -0.15, "surprise_pct": -9.6774, "surprise_label": "-9.7%", "surprise_band": "miss", "eps_yoy": -34.883720930232556, "eps_yoy_label": "-34.9%", "one_week_reaction": -10.146514732086578, "one_week_reaction_label": "-10.1%", "four_week_reaction": -13.487607045175192, "four_week_reaction_label": "-13.5%", "confirmation": "confirmed", "revenue": 3193000000.0, "revenue_yoy": -5.224102107450282, "revenue_yoy_label": "-5.2%", "net_income": 425000000.0, "operating_cash_flow": -179000000.0, "free_cash_flow": -60000000.0, "currency": "USD"}, {"period_end": "2026-06-30", "reported_date": "2026-07-16", "date_source": "exact", "eps_actual": 2.12, "eps_estimate": 2.33, "eps_surprise": -0.21, "surprise_pct": -9.0129, "surprise_label": "-9.0%", "surprise_band": "miss", "eps_yoy": 443.5897435897436, "eps_yoy_label": "+443.6%", "one_week_reaction": -9.65488907148727, "one_week_reaction_label": "-9.7%", "four_week_reaction": 3.0608052588332004, "four_week_reaction_label": "+3.1%", "confirmation": "confirmed", "revenue": 3966000000.0, "revenue_yoy": 31.411530815109344, "revenue_yoy_label": "+31.4%", "net_income": 407000000.0, "operating_cash_flow": 608000000.0, "free_cash_flow": 794000000.0, "currency": "USD"}], "charts": {"quarters": ["2023-09-30", "2023-12-31", "2024-03-31", "2024-06-30", "2024-09-30", "2024-12-31", "2025-03-31", "2025-06-30", "2025-09-30", "2025-12-31", "2026-03-31", "2026-06-30"], "eps_actual": [-1.14, -0.56, -0.81, 0.16, 0.57, 1.04, 2.15, 0.39, -0.02, 1.26, 1.4, 2.12], "eps_estimate": [-1.07, -0.86, -0.44, 0.09, 0.3, 1.01, 1.41, 0.39, -0.05, 1.01, 1.55, 2.33], "surprise": [-6.5421, 34.8837, -84.0909, 77.7778, 90.0, 2.9703, 52.4823, 0.0, 60.0, 24.7525, -9.6774, -9.0129], "reaction_1w": [-9.668925676909122, -8.891108795364909, 0.9374995726629738, -10.346598091698468, 1.6821062175852515, -5.312422275112096, -5.7777748133963955, -2.4445152480507586, 9.591326158739426, 3.5625112905681675, -10.146514732086578, -9.65488907148727], "reaction_4w": [-6.9326021696840945, -10.456212458855232, 5.454545613246998, -21.54043683751736, 9.432778903897784, -8.322793526894637, 4.727272161841365, -2.959151062235331, 4.800133915311151, -0.1997661298202751, -13.487607045175192, 3.0608052588332004], "revenue": [2654.0, 2596.0, 2652.0, 2831.0, 2830.0, 3977.0, 3369.0, 3018.0, 2995.0, 3449.0, 3193.0, 3966.0], "net_income": [-168.0, -150.0, -252.0, 20.0, 90.0, 202.0, 548.0, 164.0, 232.0, 213.0, 425.0, 407.0], "financial_unit": "millions", "scatter": [{"x": -6.5421, "y": -9.668925676909122, "label": "2023-09-30"}, {"x": 34.8837, "y": -8.891108795364909, "label": "2023-12-31"}, {"x": -84.0909, "y": 0.9374995726629738, "label": "2024-03-31"}, {"x": 77.7778, "y": -10.346598091698468, "label": "2024-06-30"}, {"x": 90.0, "y": 1.6821062175852515, "label": "2024-09-30"}, {"x": 2.9703, "y": -5.312422275112096, "label": "2024-12-31"}, {"x": 52.4823, "y": -5.7777748133963955, "label": "2025-03-31"}, {"x": 0.0, "y": -2.4445152480507586, "label": "2025-06-30"}, {"x": 60.0, "y": 9.591326158739426, "label": "2025-09-30"}, {"x": 24.7525, "y": 3.5625112905681675, "label": "2025-12-31"}, {"x": -9.6774, "y": -10.146514732086578, "label": "2026-03-31"}, {"x": -9.0129, "y": -9.65488907148727, "label": "2026-06-30"}], "earnings_price": {"available": false, "dates": [], "price_index": [], "eps_index": [], "gap": [], "quarter_markers": [], "bridge_labels": [], "bridge_values": []}}, "earnings_price": {"available": false, "reason": "Earnings power must be positive at the start of the three-year window."}, "disclaimer": "Earnings intelligence is descriptive market research. It is not a forecast, recommendation or trading instruction."}