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"earningsChangePct": -0.694444444444442, "surprisePct": 2.7027027027027053, "immediateReturnPct": -3.279368124901594, "forward4WeekPct": -9.256952915034011, "forward13WeekPct": -21.229386495160952, "toDateReturnPct": 47.40246141785034, "weeksSince": 93, "availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": -35.365534715870055, "key": "mixed", "status": "Mixed response", "tone": "neutral"}, {"date": "2025-01-24", "periodEnd": "2024-12-31", "earningsChangePct": 2.7972027972027913, "surprisePct": 40.90909090909091, "immediateReturnPct": -5.992044062766045, "forward4WeekPct": -8.055695350839665, "forward13WeekPct": -6.718325098614097, "toDateReturnPct": 75.91590926428213, "weeksSince": 80, "availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": -10.293794915799552, "key": "unrecognised_improvement", "status": "Non-positive four-week response", "tone": "opportunity"}, {"date": "2025-04-25", "periodEnd": "2025-03-31", "earningsChangePct": -5.442176870748305, "surprisePct": 4.3478260869565135, "immediateReturnPct": 13.525835230663464, "forward4WeekPct": 18.601825508444403, "forward13WeekPct": 36.90765337222486, "toDateReturnPct": 114.093502831096, "weeksSince": 67, "availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": -14.374459370214396, "key": "resisted_deterioration", "status": "Price resisted deterioration", "tone": "caution"}, {"date": "2025-07-25", "periodEnd": "2025-06-30", "earningsChangePct": 5.755395683453246, "surprisePct": 22.727272727272734, "immediateReturnPct": 0.20089325352341536, "forward4WeekPct": -3.392856335024552, "forward13WeekPct": -7.3241580850008425, "toDateReturnPct": 56.692191379008115, "weeksSince": 54, "availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": -29.83714011353686, "key": "unrecognised_improvement", "status": "Non-positive four-week response", "tone": "opportunity"}, {"date": "2025-10-24", "periodEnd": "2025-09-30", "earningsChangePct": 8.163265306122458, "surprisePct": 21.95121951219513, "immediateReturnPct": 0.4613866788381049, "forward4WeekPct": -3.181158095397585, "forward13WeekPct": 47.06441286134642, "toDateReturnPct": 69.85564417228507, "weeksSince": 41, "availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": -13.632958770937563, "key": "unrecognised_improvement", "status": "Non-positive four-week response", "tone": "opportunity"}, {"date": "2026-01-23", "periodEnd": "2025-12-31", "earningsChangePct": 10.062893081761004, "surprisePct": 46.874999999999986, "immediateReturnPct": 2.895587955445489, "forward4WeekPct": 9.58950731906263, "forward13WeekPct": 4.212734499136683, "toDateReturnPct": 18.841778473872182, "weeksSince": 28, "availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": -54.962302491589924, "key": "accepted_improvement", "status": "Positive four-week response", "tone": "positive"}, {"date": "2026-04-24", "periodEnd": "2026-03-31", "earningsChangePct": 18.85714285714286, "surprisePct": 21.276595744680847, "immediateReturnPct": -13.046574562028201, "forward4WeekPct": -11.707733941034027, "forward13WeekPct": -10.838911835920795, "toDateReturnPct": -0.8403361344537674, "weeksSince": 15, "availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": -37.02352563700275, "key": "unrecognised_improvement", "status": "Non-positive four-week response", "tone": "opportunity"}, {"date": "2026-07-24", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "earningsChangePct": 9.615384615384603, "surprisePct": 19.35483870967742, "immediateReturnPct": 7.228502911956136, "forward4WeekPct": null, "forward13WeekPct": null, "toDateReturnPct": 19.253168893456674, "weeksSince": 2, "availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": -29.042860676008416, "key": "accepted_improvement", "status": "Positive initial response", "tone": "positive"}], "latestEvent": {"date": "2026-07-24", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "earningsChangePct": 9.615384615384603, "surprisePct": 19.35483870967742, "immediateReturnPct": 7.228502911956136, "forward4WeekPct": null, "forward13WeekPct": null, "toDateReturnPct": 19.253168893456674, "weeksSince": 2, "availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": -29.042860676008416, "key": "accepted_improvement", "status": "Positive initial response", "tone": "positive"}, "freshImprovementAwaitingConfirmation": false, "improvementConfirmationReversed": false, "summary": "Across completed four-week windows, 5 improving updates had a non-positive price response; 1 had a meaningful positive price response."}, "professional": {"peerContext": {"available": true, "cohort": "Basic Materials", "population": 25, "spreadPercentile": 29.2, "qualityPercentile": 6.2, "rarityPercentile": 70.8, "currentOneYearSpread": -13.630076999999996, "lead": "price", "relatedSignals": [{"tickerId": 3769, "symbol": "SQM", "name": "Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile SA ADR B", "spread": -37.091432, "lead": "price", "quality": 75}, {"tickerId": 884, "symbol": "CTVA", "name": "Corteva Inc", "spread": -37.38265, "lead": "price", "quality": 75}, {"tickerId": 2830, "symbol": "NEM", "name": "Newmont Goldcorp Corp", "spread": -38.468664000000004, "lead": "price", "quality": 100}, {"tickerId": 3519, "symbol": "SCCO", "name": "Southern Copper Corporation", "spread": -54.36585199999999, "lead": "price", "quality": 100}, {"tickerId": 8402, "symbol": "STLD", "name": "Steel Dynamics Inc", "spread": -60.970276, "lead": "price", "quality": 75}, {"tickerId": 4196, "symbol": "VALE", "name": "Vale SA ADR", "spread": -112.26011, "lead": "price", "quality": 87.5}, {"tickerId": 2744, "symbol": "MT", "name": "ArcelorMittal SA ADR", "spread": -148.020575, "lead": "price", "quality": 100}]}, "historicalOutcomes": {"available": false, "sampleSize": 0, "historyWeeks": 156, "horizons": []}, "transitions": [{"date": "2023-08-18", "key": "balanced", "label": "Broadly aligned", "tone": "neutral"}, {"date": "2023-10-20", "key": "unrecognised_improvement", "label": "Earnings ahead", "tone": "positive"}, {"date": "2024-01-26", "key": "fundamental_fracture", "label": "Fundamental fracture", "tone": "negative"}, {"date": "2025-10-24", "key": "expectations_ahead", "label": "Expectations ahead", "tone": "caution"}], "dataIntegrity": {"asOf": "2026-08-07", "exactReportDates": 13, "estimatedReportDates": 0, "coverage": 100}}, "alerts": [{"key": "quality_confirmed", "label": "Business quality supportive", "tone": "positive", "explanation": "Cash generation and operating evidence are broadly supportive."}, {"key": "expectations_elevated", "label": "Expectations elevated", "tone": "caution", "explanation": "Price is leading delivered earnings power by a meaningful margin."}]}, "disclaimer": "Earnings intelligence is descriptive market research. It is not a forecast, recommendation or trading instruction."}