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"forward13WeekPct": -10.783750207960018, "toDateReturnPct": 74.5500563196666, "weeksSince": 85, "availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": -60.217459111940904, "key": "accepted_deterioration", "status": "Negative four-week response", "tone": "negative"}, {"date": "2025-05-02", "periodEnd": "2025-03-31", "earningsChangePct": 26.286523101809745, "surprisePct": 237.89954337899545, "immediateReturnPct": -1.5037697251806925, "forward4WeekPct": -0.3390457040672423, "forward13WeekPct": 8.376547926111598, "toDateReturnPct": 100.91597278059466, "weeksSince": 75, "availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": -48.331315136930534, "key": "unrecognised_improvement", "status": "Non-positive four-week response", "tone": "opportunity"}, {"date": "2025-08-01", "periodEnd": "2025-06-30", "earningsChangePct": -2.4017292450564387, "surprisePct": -17.647058823529417, "immediateReturnPct": -6.2294882703294086, "forward4WeekPct": 1.7036152252462022, "forward13WeekPct": 15.24208679283976, "toDateReturnPct": 73.83828829042945, "weeksSince": 62, "availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": -56.981110669614765, "key": "resisted_deterioration", "status": "Price resisted deterioration", "tone": "caution"}, {"date": "2025-10-31", "periodEnd": "2025-09-30", "earningsChangePct": 34.45164465589367, "surprisePct": -6.896551724137918, "immediateReturnPct": 3.5608139299663444, "forward4WeekPct": 8.365754065393528, "forward13WeekPct": 28.53380385729163, "toDateReturnPct": 56.21753413673489, "weeksSince": 49, "availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": -66.58074062320426, "key": "accepted_improvement", "status": "Positive four-week response", "tone": "positive"}, {"date": "2026-02-27", "periodEnd": "2025-12-31", "earningsChangePct": 1.8851808919528867, "surprisePct": -24.44444444444444, "immediateReturnPct": -3.1175149136585367, "forward4WeekPct": -17.51756313906564, "forward13WeekPct": 9.38222378436242, "toDateReturnPct": 24.45266350576347, "weeksSince": 32, "availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": -84.4218889912471, "key": "mixed", "status": "Mixed response", "tone": "neutral"}, {"date": "2026-05-01", "periodEnd": "2026-03-31", "earningsChangePct": 8.383233532934131, "surprisePct": -32.85939968404424, "immediateReturnPct": 4.640373996732294, "forward4WeekPct": 5.228672428053405, "forward13WeekPct": 14.79636731915459, "toDateReturnPct": 19.72684507369633, "weeksSince": 23, "availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": -96.37033026016297, "key": "accepted_improvement", "status": "Positive four-week response", "tone": "positive"}, {"date": "2026-08-07", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "earningsChangePct": -14.917127071823199, "surprisePct": 0.0, "immediateReturnPct": -0.40322638141447875, "forward4WeekPct": 1.2394602490490625, "forward13WeekPct": null, "toDateReturnPct": 4.294977157974089, "weeksSince": 9, "availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": -116.01104805172935, "key": "resisted_deterioration", "status": "Price resisted deterioration", "tone": "caution"}], "latestEvent": {"date": "2026-08-07", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "earningsChangePct": -14.917127071823199, "surprisePct": 0.0, "immediateReturnPct": -0.40322638141447875, "forward4WeekPct": 1.2394602490490625, "forward13WeekPct": null, "toDateReturnPct": 4.294977157974089, "weeksSince": 9, "availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": -116.01104805172935, "key": "resisted_deterioration", "status": "Price resisted deterioration", "tone": "caution"}, "freshImprovementAwaitingConfirmation": false, "improvementConfirmationReversed": false, "summary": "Across completed four-week windows, 1 improving update had a non-positive price response; 2 had a meaningful positive price response."}, "professional": {"peerContext": {"available": true, "cohort": "Steel", "population": 11, "spreadPercentile": 0.0, "qualityPercentile": 50.0, "rarityPercentile": 100.0, "currentOneYearSpread": -135.735638, "lead": "price", "relatedSignals": [{"tickerId": 4378, "symbol": "WS", "name": "Worthington Steel Inc", "spread": -109.547697, "lead": "price", "quality": 75}, {"tickerId": 2744, "symbol": "MT", "name": "ArcelorMittal SA ADR", "spread": -101.798915, "lead": "price", "quality": 75}, {"tickerId": 7430, "symbol": "NWPX", "name": "Northwest Pipe Company", "spread": -58.907703, "lead": "price", "quality": 100}, {"tickerId": 4073, "symbol": "TX", "name": "Ternium SA ADR", "spread": -56.97583199999999, "lead": "price", "quality": 25}, {"tickerId": 2727, "symbol": "MSB", "name": "Mesabi Trust", "spread": -54.69920499999999, "lead": "price", "quality": 37.5}, {"tickerId": 3429, "symbol": "RS", "name": "Reliance Steel & Aluminum Co", "spread": -28.364359999999998, "lead": "price", "quality": 62.5}, {"tickerId": 8402, "symbol": "STLD", "name": "Steel Dynamics Inc", "spread": -15.386902999999997, "lead": "price", "quality": 83.33333333333333}]}, "historicalOutcomes": {"available": true, "sampleSize": 7, "historyWeeks": 156, "horizons": [{"weeks": 13, "observations": 7, "medianReturn": -7.564050427002844, "positiveRate": 42.857142857142854, "downsideDecile": -18.45389495970622, "bestReturn": 12.200435729847502, "worstReturn": -18.45389495970622}], "note": "Comparable outcomes use the available three-year peer history, are descriptive, include overlapping periods and are not a forecast."}, "transitions": [{"date": "2023-10-20", "key": "balanced", "label": "Broadly aligned", "tone": "neutral"}, {"date": "2023-11-10", "key": "fundamental_fracture", "label": "Fundamental fracture", "tone": "negative"}], "dataIntegrity": {"asOf": "2026-10-09", "exactReportDates": 13, "estimatedReportDates": 0, "coverage": 100}}, "alerts": [{"key": "fundamental_fracture", "label": "Fundamental fracture", "tone": "negative", "explanation": "Earnings have weakened while price has not adjusted to the same degree."}]}, "disclaimer": "Earnings intelligence is descriptive market research. It is not a forecast, recommendation or trading instruction."}