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"immediateReturnPct": -5.494506527186028, "forward4WeekPct": 6.043955883712515, "forward13WeekPct": 6.035569520729411, "toDateReturnPct": 39.437866755533605, "weeksSince": 93, "availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": -27.458490038296816, "key": "mixed", "status": "Mixed response", "tone": "neutral"}, {"date": "2025-01-24", "periodEnd": "2024-12-31", "earningsChangePct": 7.420494699646651, "surprisePct": 30.434782608695667, "immediateReturnPct": 0.4994447099408106, "forward4WeekPct": 1.2486133104992803, "forward13WeekPct": 4.262029339462825, "toDateReturnPct": 32.15780557231118, "weeksSince": 80, "availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": -35.800136107719155, "key": "mixed", "status": "Mixed response", "tone": "neutral"}, {"date": "2025-04-25", "periodEnd": "2025-03-31", "earningsChangePct": 4.6052631578947345, "surprisePct": 9.459459459459469, "immediateReturnPct": -1.4538716501806714, "forward4WeekPct": -1.0309280146135413, "forward13WeekPct": -4.500496384574493, "toDateReturnPct": 24.912589490813254, "weeksSince": 67, "availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": -36.174184271843984, "key": "unrecognised_improvement", "status": "Non-positive four-week response", "tone": "opportunity"}, {"date": "2025-07-25", "periodEnd": "2025-06-30", "earningsChangePct": 2.2012578616352085, "surprisePct": 2.469135802469124, "immediateReturnPct": -2.6079868442531406, "forward4WeekPct": 8.475957243822707, "forward13WeekPct": 10.840613217241234, "toDateReturnPct": 27.38797688412977, "weeksSince": 54, "availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": -28.845058447903227, "key": "accepted_improvement", "status": "Positive four-week response", "tone": "positive"}, {"date": "2025-10-24", "periodEnd": "2025-09-30", "earningsChangePct": 2.1538461538461506, "surprisePct": 2.6315789473684235, "immediateReturnPct": -2.362013922609396, "forward4WeekPct": 10.460352587188426, "forward13WeekPct": -2.6198513231798892, "toDateReturnPct": 12.214333288305035, "weeksSince": 41, "availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": -46.80545379517342, "key": "accepted_improvement", "status": "Positive four-week response", "tone": "positive"}, {"date": "2026-01-23", "periodEnd": "2025-12-31", "earningsChangePct": -2.409638554216853, "surprisePct": -7.8651685393258495, "immediateReturnPct": -11.869919217258095, "forward4WeekPct": -4.25087126105309, "forward13WeekPct": -5.455925041281118, "toDateReturnPct": 1.5551772312490275, "weeksSince": 28, "availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": -49.31036576996583, "key": "accepted_deterioration", "status": "Negative four-week response", "tone": "negative"}, {"date": "2026-04-24", "periodEnd": "2026-03-31", "earningsChangePct": 15.740740740740744, "surprisePct": 67.08860759493672, "immediateReturnPct": -5.098684350797211, "forward4WeekPct": -7.542294816139927, "forward13WeekPct": 0.18583536697864833, "toDateReturnPct": 1.938909809437006, "weeksSince": 15, "availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": -42.781141973199055, "key": "unrecognised_improvement", "status": "Non-positive four-week response", "tone": "opportunity"}, {"date": "2026-07-24", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "earningsChangePct": -1.866666666666661, "surprisePct": -1.2987012987012998, "immediateReturnPct": 0.11837121212121549, "forward4WeekPct": null, "forward13WeekPct": null, "toDateReturnPct": 1.8702651515151603, "weeksSince": 2, "availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": -55.45181000559052, "key": "mixed", "status": "Mixed response", "tone": "neutral"}], "latestEvent": {"date": "2026-07-24", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "earningsChangePct": -1.866666666666661, "surprisePct": -1.2987012987012998, "immediateReturnPct": 0.11837121212121549, "forward4WeekPct": null, "forward13WeekPct": null, "toDateReturnPct": 1.8702651515151603, "weeksSince": 2, "availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": -55.45181000559052, "key": "mixed", "status": "Mixed response", "tone": "neutral"}, "freshImprovementAwaitingConfirmation": false, "improvementConfirmationReversed": false, "summary": "Across completed four-week windows, 2 improving updates had a non-positive price response; 4 had a meaningful positive price response."}, "professional": {"peerContext": {"available": true, "cohort": "Insurance - Property & Casualty", "population": 29, "spreadPercentile": 17.9, "qualityPercentile": 71.4, "rarityPercentile": 50.0, "currentOneYearSpread": 2.000251999999997, "lead": "aligned", "relatedSignals": [{"tickerId": 4376, "symbol": "WRB", "name": "W. R. Berkley Corp", "spread": 3.5477480000000003, "lead": "aligned", "quality": 100}, {"tickerId": 151, "symbol": "AIZ", "name": "Assurant, Inc.", "spread": 3.716497000000002, "lead": "aligned", "quality": 100}, {"tickerId": 8225, "symbol": "SIGI", "name": "Selective Insurance Group, Inc.", "spread": 4.0553500000000025, "lead": "aligned", "quality": 100}, {"tickerId": 2667, "symbol": "MKL", "name": "Markel Corporation", "spread": 4.166652, "lead": "aligned", "quality": 87.5}, {"tickerId": 1949, "symbol": "HMN", "name": "Horace Mann Educators Corporation", "spread": 4.423338999999999, "lead": "aligned", "quality": 75}, {"tickerId": 3939, "symbol": "THG", "name": "The Hanover Insurance Group Inc", "spread": -2.381569, "lead": "aligned", "quality": 100}, {"tickerId": 105, "symbol": "AFG", "name": "American Financial Group, Inc.", "spread": 6.592840999999999, "lead": "aligned", "quality": 75}, {"tickerId": 644, "symbol": "CB", "name": "Chubb Ltd", "spread": -8.891027000000001, "lead": "aligned", "quality": 100}]}, "historicalOutcomes": {"available": false, "sampleSize": 0, "historyWeeks": 156, "horizons": []}, "transitions": [{"date": "2023-08-18", "key": "balanced", "label": "Broadly aligned", "tone": "neutral"}, {"date": "2024-04-26", "key": "expectations_ahead", "label": "Expectations ahead", "tone": "caution"}], "dataIntegrity": {"asOf": "2026-08-07", "exactReportDates": 13, "estimatedReportDates": 0, "coverage": 100}}, "alerts": [{"key": "quality_confirmed", "label": "Business quality supportive", "tone": "positive", "explanation": "Cash generation and operating evidence are broadly supportive."}, {"key": "expectations_stretched", "label": "Expectations stretched", "tone": "caution", "explanation": "Price has moved materially faster than delivered earnings power."}]}, "disclaimer": "Earnings intelligence is descriptive market research. It is not a forecast, recommendation or trading instruction."}