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21.966911892938178, "toDateReturnPct": 20.42590185781721, "weeksSince": 119, "availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": -69.29592534413078, "key": "accepted_improvement", "status": "Positive four-week response", "tone": "positive"}, {"date": "2024-07-26", "periodEnd": "2024-06-30", "earningsChangePct": 12.643678160919535, "surprisePct": -10.784313725490195, "immediateReturnPct": 4.568164917302342, "forward4WeekPct": 4.2255526999154025, "forward13WeekPct": -0.799144359751669, "toDateReturnPct": 3.246982073604565, "weeksSince": 106, "availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": -85.9159482085876, "key": "accepted_improvement", "status": "Positive four-week response", "tone": "positive"}, {"date": "2024-10-25", "periodEnd": "2024-09-30", "earningsChangePct": 29.081632653061206, "surprisePct": 25.806451612903214, "immediateReturnPct": -1.9738710260011616, "forward4WeekPct": 5.992617172128534, "forward13WeekPct": -8.177311572868383, "toDateReturnPct": 2.024341580547806, "weeksSince": 93, "availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": -53.680153584252054, "key": "accepted_improvement", "status": "Positive four-week response", "tone": "positive"}, {"date": "2025-02-07", "periodEnd": "2024-12-31", "earningsChangePct": 33.20158102766799, "surprisePct": 15.46391752577321, "immediateReturnPct": 3.1446536639757827, "forward4WeekPct": 5.599017890841007, "forward13WeekPct": -1.5396604452110219, "toDateReturnPct": 9.473936076372258, "weeksSince": 78, "availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": -15.749555868729516, "key": "accepted_improvement", "status": "Positive four-week response", "tone": "positive"}, {"date": "2025-04-25", "periodEnd": "2025-03-31", "earningsChangePct": 2.3738872403560762, "surprisePct": -26.470588235294123, "immediateReturnPct": -0.9037990174128985, "forward4WeekPct": -6.954657736331882, "forward13WeekPct": 0.5552483667369934, "toDateReturnPct": 8.562868814644876, "weeksSince": 67, "availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": -7.577781096763147, "key": "unrecognised_improvement", "status": "Non-positive four-week response", "tone": "opportunity"}, {"date": "2025-07-25", "periodEnd": "2025-06-30", "earningsChangePct": 12.463768115942031, "surprisePct": 13.559322033898319, "immediateReturnPct": 11.413415725726562, "forward4WeekPct": 25.735798343211115, "forward13WeekPct": 28.765751250444893, "toDateReturnPct": 20.28571588337511, "weeksSince": 54, "availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": 8.045243342761353, "key": "accepted_improvement", "status": "Positive four-week response", "tone": "positive"}, {"date": "2025-10-24", "periodEnd": "2025-09-30", "earningsChangePct": 12.113402061855671, "surprisePct": 18.84057971014493, "immediateReturnPct": 7.095756448548007, "forward4WeekPct": 6.837728407830368, "forward13WeekPct": -5.297859654218595, "toDateReturnPct": 0.04282666304620264, "weeksSince": 41, "availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": 3.7256782502279577, "key": "accepted_improvement", "status": "Positive four-week response", "tone": "positive"}, {"date": "2026-02-06", "periodEnd": "2025-12-31", "earningsChangePct": 12.18390804597702, "surprisePct": 22.222222222222207, "immediateReturnPct": 5.946907938691037, "forward4WeekPct": -0.6376987934987199, "forward13WeekPct": 4.258972060881505, "toDateReturnPct": 2.772480191429594, "weeksSince": 26, "availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": 32.25840219180424, "key": "unrecognised_improvement", "status": "Non-positive four-week response", "tone": "opportunity"}, {"date": "2026-04-24", "periodEnd": "2026-03-31", "earningsChangePct": 10.860655737704917, "surprisePct": 50.0, "immediateReturnPct": 6.146326958278592, "forward4WeekPct": 0.25177713377837474, "forward13WeekPct": 0.6511376183656825, "toDateReturnPct": 1.8006685582372617, "weeksSince": 15, "availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": 52.30156139233361, "key": "mixed", "status": "Mixed response", "tone": "neutral"}, {"date": "2026-07-24", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "earningsChangePct": 0.9242144177449063, "surprisePct": -18.235294117647065, "immediateReturnPct": -6.361111111111106, "forward4WeekPct": null, "forward13WeekPct": null, "toDateReturnPct": -5.291666666666672, "weeksSince": 2, "availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": 63.289986952496776, "key": "mixed", "status": "Mixed response", "tone": "neutral"}], "latestEvent": {"date": "2026-07-24", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "earningsChangePct": 0.9242144177449063, "surprisePct": -18.235294117647065, "immediateReturnPct": -6.361111111111106, "forward4WeekPct": null, "forward13WeekPct": null, "toDateReturnPct": -5.291666666666672, "weeksSince": 2, "availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": 63.289986952496776, "key": "mixed", "status": "Mixed response", "tone": "neutral"}, "freshImprovementAwaitingConfirmation": false, "improvementConfirmationReversed": false, "summary": "Across completed four-week windows, 2 improving updates had a non-positive price response; 6 had a meaningful positive price response."}, "professional": {"peerContext": {"available": true, "cohort": "Insurance - Property & Casualty", "population": 29, "spreadPercentile": 75.0, "qualityPercentile": 71.4, "rarityPercentile": 75.0, "currentOneYearSpread": 49.119778, "lead": "earnings", "relatedSignals": [{"tickerId": 268, "symbol": "ASIC", "name": "Ategrity Specialty Insurance Company Holdings", "spread": 46.865667, "lead": "earnings", "quality": 100}, {"tickerId": 2400, "symbol": "KNSL", "name": "Kinsale Capital Group Inc", "spread": 41.959921, "lead": "earnings", "quality": 100}, {"tickerId": 5351, "symbol": "CINF", "name": "Cincinnati Financial Corporation", "spread": 63.010498000000005, "lead": "earnings", "quality": 100}, {"tickerId": 771, "symbol": "CNA", "name": "CNA Financial Corporation", "spread": 33.679355, "lead": "earnings", "quality": 87.5}, {"tickerId": 3391, "symbol": "RLI", "name": "RLI Corp", "spread": 30.861813000000005, "lead": "earnings", "quality": 75}, {"tickerId": 7700, "symbol": "PLMR", "name": "Palomar Holdings Inc", "spread": 22.322716, "lead": "earnings", "quality": 100}, {"tickerId": 3129, "symbol": "PGR", "name": "Progressive Corp", "spread": 19.070321, "lead": "earnings", "quality": 75}, {"tickerId": 2445, "symbol": "L", "name": "Loews Corp", "spread": 18.976836000000002, "lead": "earnings", "quality": 75}]}, "historicalOutcomes": {"available": false, "sampleSize": 0, "historyWeeks": 156, "horizons": []}, "transitions": [{"date": "2023-08-18", "key": "balanced", "label": "Broadly aligned", "tone": "neutral"}, {"date": "2023-10-27", "key": "fundamental_fracture", "label": "Fundamental fracture", "tone": "negative"}, {"date": "2024-10-25", "key": "expectations_ahead", "label": "Expectations ahead", "tone": "caution"}, {"date": "2025-04-25", "key": "confirmed_compounding", "label": "Confirmed compounding", "tone": "positive"}, {"date": "2026-02-06", "key": "unrecognised_improvement", "label": "Earnings ahead", "tone": "positive"}], "dataIntegrity": {"asOf": "2026-08-07", "exactReportDates": 13, "estimatedReportDates": 0, "coverage": 100}}, "alerts": [{"key": "persistent_earnings_lead", "label": "Persistent earnings lead", "tone": "positive", "explanation": "Earnings power has led market price across several updates."}, {"key": "quality_confirmed", "label": "Business quality supportive", "tone": "positive", "explanation": "Cash generation and operating evidence are broadly supportive."}]}, "disclaimer": "Earnings intelligence is descriptive market research. It is not a forecast, recommendation or trading instruction."}