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15.211267605633804, "surprisePct": 9.243697478991605, "immediateReturnPct": -0.26001102671570075, "forward4WeekPct": 5.954236453465667, "forward13WeekPct": 15.61088272606106, "toDateReturnPct": 53.91903393123827, "weeksSince": 76, "availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": -27.429390666987757, "key": "accepted_improvement", "status": "Positive four-week response", "tone": "positive"}, {"date": "2025-08-01", "periodEnd": "2025-06-30", "earningsChangePct": 17.114914425427873, "surprisePct": 11.678832116788314, "immediateReturnPct": -1.877827521640063, "forward4WeekPct": -4.6153843660773575, "forward13WeekPct": -20.725191478527517, "toDateReturnPct": 33.135419695694246, "weeksSince": 62, "availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": -24.58395188648103, "key": "unrecognised_improvement", "status": "Non-positive four-week response", "tone": "opportunity"}, {"date": "2025-10-31", "periodEnd": "2025-09-30", "earningsChangePct": 4.801670146137771, "surprisePct": 12.903225806451612, "immediateReturnPct": 3.8450054621370633, "forward4WeekPct": 6.587182039454986, "forward13WeekPct": 24.573703430823723, "toDateReturnPct": 74.3990132976291, "weeksSince": 49, "availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": 35.16522855166855, "key": "accepted_improvement", "status": "Positive four-week response", "tone": "positive"}, {"date": "2026-01-30", "periodEnd": "2025-12-31", "earningsChangePct": 14.143426294820728, "surprisePct": 43.4108527131783, "immediateReturnPct": 11.706136143413094, "forward4WeekPct": 12.082884677498873, "forward13WeekPct": 30.244587972011814, "toDateReturnPct": 56.384849981761896, "weeksSince": 36, "availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": 28.210861000122065, "key": "accepted_improvement", "status": "Positive four-week response", "tone": "positive"}, {"date": "2026-05-01", "periodEnd": "2026-03-31", "earningsChangePct": 16.404886561954623, "surprisePct": 35.75757575757578, "immediateReturnPct": -0.84483820727278, "forward4WeekPct": 3.3381418656209583, "forward13WeekPct": 21.136266192309638, "toDateReturnPct": 19.05573462449839, "weeksSince": 23, "availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": 32.369431055882444, "key": "accepted_improvement", "status": "Positive four-week response", "tone": "positive"}, {"date": "2026-07-31", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "earningsChangePct": -1.3493253373313308, "surprisePct": -7.096774193548392, "immediateReturnPct": -2.0505473719450995, "forward4WeekPct": 10.724743890190824, "forward13WeekPct": null, "toDateReturnPct": -3.732842316705731, "weeksSince": 10, "availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": -35.508935520198406, "key": "mixed", "status": "Mixed response", "tone": "neutral"}], "latestEvent": {"date": "2026-07-31", "periodEnd": "2026-06-30", "earningsChangePct": -1.3493253373313308, "surprisePct": -7.096774193548392, "immediateReturnPct": -2.0505473719450995, "forward4WeekPct": 10.724743890190824, "forward13WeekPct": null, "toDateReturnPct": -3.732842316705731, "weeksSince": 10, "availabilitySource": "reported", "spread": -35.508935520198406, "key": "mixed", "status": "Mixed response", "tone": "neutral"}, "freshImprovementAwaitingConfirmation": false, "improvementConfirmationReversed": false, "summary": "Across completed four-week windows, 2 improving updates had a non-positive price response; 6 had a meaningful positive price response."}, "professional": {"peerContext": {"available": true, "cohort": "Capital Markets", "population": 23, "spreadPercentile": 18.2, "qualityPercentile": 40.9, "rarityPercentile": 50.0, "currentOneYearSpread": -7.047460999999999, "lead": "aligned", "relatedSignals": [{"tickerId": 5034, "symbol": "BGC", "name": "BGC Group Inc.", "spread": -0.40193600000000274, "lead": "aligned", "quality": 100}, {"tickerId": 6539, "symbol": "IBKR", "name": "Interactive Brokers Group Inc", "spread": 6.608667000000001, "lead": "aligned", "quality": 100}, {"tickerId": 2268, "symbol": "JEF", "name": "Jefferies Financial Group Inc", "spread": 6.907329000000001, "lead": "aligned", "quality": 16.666666666666668}, {"tickerId": 2725, "symbol": "MS", "name": "Morgan Stanley", "spread": 9.825449000000003, "lead": "aligned", "quality": 66.66666666666667}]}, "historicalOutcomes": {"available": false, "sampleSize": 0, "historyWeeks": 156, "horizons": []}, "transitions": [{"date": "2023-10-20", "key": "balanced", "label": "Broadly aligned", "tone": "neutral"}, {"date": "2023-11-03", "key": "shared_contraction", "label": "Shared contraction", "tone": "negative"}, {"date": "2024-04-26", "key": "fundamental_fracture", "label": "Fundamental fracture", "tone": "negative"}, {"date": "2024-07-19", "key": "expectations_ahead", "label": "Expectations ahead", "tone": "caution"}, {"date": "2025-10-31", "key": "unrecognised_improvement", "label": "Earnings ahead", "tone": "positive"}, {"date": "2026-07-31", "key": "expectations_ahead", "label": "Expectations ahead", "tone": "caution"}], "dataIntegrity": {"asOf": "2026-10-09", "exactReportDates": 13, "estimatedReportDates": 0, "coverage": 100}}, "alerts": [{"key": "quality_confirmed", "label": "Business quality supportive", "tone": "positive", "explanation": "Cash generation and operating evidence are broadly supportive."}]}, "disclaimer": "Earnings intelligence is descriptive market research. It is not a forecast, recommendation or trading instruction."}