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3.186272136918434, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 47.200001, "confirmation": 40.799999, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 50 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "tactical-bearish-wave2", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 47.20; Wave 2 42.10.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 11% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 267, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 47.200001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 13.053894610778443, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 270, "date": "2026-07-10", "price": 41.5, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -12.076273049231503, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 42.099998, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 1.4457783132530104, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 47.200001, "confirmation": 41.5, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 50 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 19.337150820462604, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 19.3% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 12.085719262789127, "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 47.20; Wave 2 42.10.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 20% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 267, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 47.200001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 13.053894610778443, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 273, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 40.799999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -13.559325983912586, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 42.099998, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 3.186272136918434, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 47.200001, "confirmation": 40.799999, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 50 }, "candidate_count": 1, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 12.1% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 8.460003483952388, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bearish-wave2", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 47.20; Wave 2 42.10.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 11% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 267, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 47.200001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 13.053894610778443, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 270, "date": "2026-07-10", "price": 41.5, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -12.076273049231503, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 42.099998, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 1.4457783132530104, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 47.200001, "confirmation": 41.5, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 50 }, "candidate_count": 1, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 8.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 20, "changes": 5, "observations": 9, "label": "Low" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "hurst_crest_risk", "title": "Hurst crest risk", "direction": "risk", "confidence": 79, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "labels": [ { "index": 267, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 47.200001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 13.053894610778443, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 273, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 40.799999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -13.559325983912586, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 42.099998, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 3.186272136918434, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "notes": [ "Hurst rhythm shows a falling stack.", "Hurst risk alignment is elevated.", "Market Dynamics is negative." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": 15.352993740496897, "fair_value_gap": 41.68923597929412, "market_activity": 18.690463, "market_dynamics": -0.502125, "relative_strength": -8.628472, "roc30": 39.86710299003322, "hurst_alignment": 25, "hurst_risk": 75 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as hurst crest risk. Price is 15.4% above its 30-week trend. 3 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": -6.340384731025925 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": -3.7714331428571444 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 43.9316170940171 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 72.18812383688655 } ], "range": { "high_52": 57.599998, "low_52": 23.0, "position_52": 55.20230954926645, "drawdown": -26.90972315658761 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 54.39011178531066, "average_weekly_range": 16.19557872908259, "active_drawdown": -35.193362925697464 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 273, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 40.799999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -13.559325983912586, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": { "index": 267, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 47.200001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 13.053894610778443, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": { "index": 267, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 47.200001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 13.053894610778443, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above", "trend": 36.496667, "fair_value": 29.712912, "trend_gap": 15.352993740496897, "fair_value_gap": 41.68923597929412 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 273, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 40.799999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -13.559325983912586, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 42.099998, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 3.186272136918434, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 3.186272136918434, "weeks": 2, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "15.4% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "negative", "value": "Cresting", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "negative", "value": "Falling Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are weakening together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "negative", "value": "-8.6", "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "positive", "value": "+18.7", "explanation": "Participation is supportive" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "negative", "value": "-0.5", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is weak" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "positive", "value": "+39.9", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive" } ], "positive": 3, "negative": 4, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 57, "direction": "defensive", "scenario_direction": "risk" }, "evidence": { "score": 100, "history_score": 100, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 276, "confirmed_pivots": 28 }, "volume_ratio": 29.94769815458137, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 39, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 38, "positive_rate": 34.2, "median_return": -3.1, "bar_width": 15.5, "average_return": -4.64, "best_return": 15.56, "worst_return": -35.25 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 35, "positive_rate": 28.6, "median_return": -7.58, "bar_width": 37.9, "average_return": -5.16, "best_return": 72.49, "worst_return": -26.25 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 33, "positive_rate": 42.4, "median_return": -20.27, "bar_width": 100.0, "average_return": 3.36, "best_return": 94.16, "worst_return": -36.65 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "watching", "label": "Watching", "now": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is falling stack.", "next": "A weekly close through 40.80, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 47.20; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 24, "constructive_count": 14, "constructive_percent": 58, "rising_cycle_count": 9, "rising_cycle_percent": 38, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 177, "positive_rate": 55.9, "median_return": 2.12, "average_return": 3.28, "median_excess_return": 0.02, "excess_observations": 177, "p10": -9.55, "p90": 15.37 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 108, "positive_rate": 65.7, "median_return": 6.58, "average_return": 10.46, "median_excess_return": 3.25, "excess_observations": 108, "p10": -13.4, "p90": 36.98 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 91, "positive_rate": 65.9, "median_return": 10.93, "average_return": 27.6, "median_excess_return": 4.19, "excess_observations": 91, "p10": -22.42, "p90": 95.64 } ], "benchmark": "^TWII", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 12.11402195316019, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 48, "label": "Watch", "tone": "watch", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 14, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 72, "explanation": "Price is 15.4% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 55% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 15, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 11, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 75, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 75/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 8, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 80, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has low recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "Price is 15.4% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability.", "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting.", "Hurst risk alignment is 75/100.", "The primary interpretation has low recent stability." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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