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"guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 31% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 268, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 169.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 35.2, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 274, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 100.5, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -40.532544378698226, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 121.5, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 20.895522388059703, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 169.0, "confirmation": 100.5, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 33 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "strategic-bearish-wave2", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 169.00; Wave 2 121.50.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 31% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 268, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 169.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 35.2, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 274, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 100.5, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -40.532544378698226, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 121.5, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 20.895522388059703, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 169.0, "confirmation": 100.5, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 33 }, { "id": "tactical-bearish-wave2", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 169.00; Wave 2 121.50.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 31% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 268, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 169.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 15.358361774744028, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 274, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 100.5, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -40.532544378698226, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 121.5, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 20.895522388059703, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 169.0, "confirmation": 100.5, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 33 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 20.38113370356043, "primary": { "id": "strategic-bearish-wave2", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 169.00; Wave 2 121.50.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 31% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 268, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 169.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 35.2, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 274, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 100.5, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -40.532544378698226, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 121.5, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 20.895522388059703, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 169.0, "confirmation": 100.5, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 33 }, "candidate_count": 1, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 20.4% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 12.738208564725268, "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 169.00; Wave 2 121.50.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 31% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 268, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 169.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 35.2, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 274, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 100.5, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -40.532544378698226, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 121.5, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 20.895522388059703, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 169.0, "confirmation": 100.5, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 33 }, "candidate_count": 1, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 12.7% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 8.916745995307688, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bearish-wave2", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 169.00; Wave 2 121.50.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 31% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 268, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 169.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 15.358361774744028, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 274, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 100.5, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -40.532544378698226, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 121.5, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 20.895522388059703, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 169.0, "confirmation": 100.5, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 33 }, "candidate_count": 1, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 8.9% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 20, "changes": 5, "observations": 9, "label": "Low" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "hurst_crest_risk", "title": "Hurst crest risk", "direction": "risk", "confidence": 82, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "labels": [ { "index": 268, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 169.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 35.2, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 274, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 100.5, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -40.532544378698226, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 121.5, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 20.895522388059703, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "notes": [ "Hurst rhythm shows a falling stack.", "Hurst risk alignment is elevated.", "Market Dynamics is negative." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": -3.6020311012377073, "fair_value_gap": 167.91662081948087, "market_activity": 1.109305, "market_dynamics": -1.437571, "relative_strength": 17.567789, "roc30": 180.27682953987681, "hurst_alignment": 25, "hurst_risk": 75 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as hurst crest risk. Price is 3.6% below its 30-week trend. 3 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": -15.331010452961673 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": -20.58823529411765 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 30.926719905386204 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 544.5623342175066 } ], "range": { "high_52": 192.0, "low_52": 18.15, "position_52": 59.44779982743745, "drawdown": -36.71875 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 107.27463027536608, "average_weekly_range": 19.651970262244824, "active_drawdown": -28.106508875739646 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 274, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 100.5, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -40.532544378698226, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": { "index": 268, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 169.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 35.2, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": { "index": 268, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 169.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 35.2, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above", "trend": 126.04, "fair_value": 45.34993, "trend_gap": -3.6020311012377073, "fair_value_gap": 167.91662081948087 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 274, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 100.5, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -40.532544378698226, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 121.5, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 20.895522388059703, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 20.895522388059703, "weeks": 1, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "negative", "value": "3.6% below trend", "explanation": "Price remains below its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "negative", "value": "Falling", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "negative", "value": "Falling Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are weakening together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "positive", "value": "+17.6", "explanation": "Outperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "positive", "value": "+1.1", "explanation": "Participation is supportive" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "negative", "value": "-1.4", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is weak" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "positive", "value": "+180.3", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive" } ], "positive": 3, "negative": 4, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 57, "direction": "defensive", "scenario_direction": "risk" }, "evidence": { "score": 100, "history_score": 100, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 276, "confirmed_pivots": 24 }, "volume_ratio": 105.6542753777469, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 10, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 10, "positive_rate": 80.0, "median_return": 2.76, "bar_width": 13.799999999999999, "average_return": 6.57, "best_return": 41.37, "worst_return": -8.13 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 10, "positive_rate": 50.0, "median_return": 0.52, "bar_width": 2.6, "average_return": 16.7, "best_return": 93.64, "worst_return": -3.08 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 10, "positive_rate": 40.0, "median_return": -5.73, "bar_width": 28.650000000000002, "average_return": 81.95, "best_return": 458.38, "worst_return": -10.6 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "triggered", "label": "Triggered", "now": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is falling stack.", "next": "A weekly close through 100.50, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 169.00; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 24, "constructive_count": 12, "constructive_percent": 50, "rising_cycle_count": 6, "rising_cycle_percent": 25, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 179, "positive_rate": 54.7, "median_return": 1.51, "average_return": 1.58, "median_excess_return": 0.06, "excess_observations": 179, "p10": -9.96, "p90": 14.49 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 96, "positive_rate": 62.5, "median_return": 6.3, "average_return": 7.93, "median_excess_return": 0.44, "excess_observations": 96, "p10": -14.87, "p90": 33.08 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 87, "positive_rate": 66.7, "median_return": 8.85, "average_return": 18.47, "median_excess_return": 3.81, "excess_observations": 87, "p10": -23.16, "p90": 65.83 } ], "benchmark": "^TWII", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 39.09465020576132, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 30, "label": "Watch", "tone": "watch", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 3.6% below the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 59% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 11, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 73, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 11, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 75, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 75/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 8, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 80, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has low recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling.", "Hurst risk alignment is 75/100.", "The primary interpretation has low recent stability." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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