{ "ticker": { "symbol": "ANRJ", "name": "Amundi Global Hydrogen UCITS ETF - Acc", "exchange": "EBS" }, "latest_week": "2026-07-24", "latest_close": 822.0, "latest_open": 821.599976, "latest_high": 822.0, "latest_low": 821.599976, "bar_count": 114, "analysis_bar_count": 114, "reversal_percent": 5.0, "model": { "version": "ewc-2.1.0", "as_of": "2026-07-24", "price_basis": "weekly OHLCV; Elliott pivots use weekly closes", "wave_method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "cycle_method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation", "repainting_policy": "only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained" }, "pivots": [ { "index": 44, "date": "2025-03-28", "price": 484.75, "kind": "high", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 45, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 448.350006, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.509024033006703, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true }, { 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1.7054212746272615 }, { "date": "2026-02-20", "value": 1.742583655906777 }, { "date": "2026-02-27", "value": 1.821895867743825 }, { "date": "2026-03-06", "value": 1.6465417261975506 }, { "date": "2026-03-13", "value": 1.428130475661006 }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "value": 1.182208952528594 }, { "date": "2026-03-27", "value": 0.9297692893779845 }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "value": 0.8677328126956256 }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "value": 0.9748227995094021 }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "value": 1.069065148032489 }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": 1.1584984714707678 }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 1.211392113859414 }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": 1.225895546447903 }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": 1.2169128153642 }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": 1.1648227758594871 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": 1.0849291426114864 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": 0.8893238554884523 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": 0.6180424837553298 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": 0.5166482529568811 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": 0.3798789177959718 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": 0.31390956102257517 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": 0.14733926756249824 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": 0.021600543813030115 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": -0.04691969538857457 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 787.90; Wave 2 822.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 71% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 96, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 787.900024, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.96635368671006, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 103, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 904.099976, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 14.748057933807086, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 113, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 822.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.08085147432854, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 787.900024, "confirmation": 904.099976, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 38 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "tactical-bullish-wave2", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 787.90; Wave 2 822.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 71% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 96, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 787.900024, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.96635368671006, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 103, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 904.099976, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 14.748057933807086, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 113, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 822.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.08085147432854, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 787.900024, "confirmation": 904.099976, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 38 }, { "id": "strategic-bullish-wave2", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 585.25; Wave 2 822.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 26% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 74, "date": "2025-10-24", "price": 585.253601, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -12.176833745132042, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 103, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 904.099976, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 54.48003642441492, "weeks": 29, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 113, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 822.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.08085147432854, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 585.253601, "confirmation": 904.099976, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 25 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 8.0, "primary": { "id": "strategic-bullish-wave2", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 585.25; Wave 2 822.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 26% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 74, "date": "2025-10-24", "price": 585.253601, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -12.176833745132042, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 103, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 904.099976, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 54.48003642441492, "weeks": 29, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 113, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 822.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.08085147432854, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 585.253601, "confirmation": 904.099976, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 25 }, "candidate_count": 1, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 5.0, "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 787.90; Wave 2 822.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 71% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 96, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 787.900024, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.96635368671006, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 103, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 904.099976, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 14.748057933807086, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 113, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 822.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.08085147432854, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 787.900024, "confirmation": 904.099976, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 38 }, "candidate_count": 1, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 3.5, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bullish-wave2", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 787.90; Wave 2 822.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 71% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 96, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 787.900024, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.96635368671006, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 103, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 904.099976, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 14.748057933807086, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 113, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 822.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.08085147432854, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 787.900024, "confirmation": 904.099976, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 38 }, "candidate_count": 1, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 52, "changes": 3, "observations": 9, "label": "Moderate" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "wave2_trough", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "confidence": 45, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bullish-wave2", "labels": [ { "index": 96, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 787.900024, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.96635368671006, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 103, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 904.099976, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 14.748057933807086, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 113, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 822.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.08085147432854, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "notes": [ "30-week price rate of change is positive." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": -1.0230823744487894, "fair_value_gap": 36.600874783028324, "market_activity": -1.332872, "market_dynamics": -0.690143, "relative_strength": -0.273609, "roc30": 18.700361010830324, "hurst_alignment": 0, "hurst_risk": 100 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as possible wave 2 trough. Price is 1.0% below its 30-week trend. 1 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": -2.560452419927519 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": -6.9293490906338455 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 5.832366074432349 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 39.891088082685705 } ], "range": { "high_52": 919.799988, "low_52": 577.700012, "position_52": 71.41186937703849, "drawdown": -10.632745083271297 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 16.025881462577182, "average_weekly_range": 1.7742710372972474, "active_drawdown": -9.08085147432854 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 96, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 787.900024, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.96635368671006, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": { "index": 103, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 904.099976, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 14.748057933807086, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": { "index": 96, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 787.900024, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.96635368671006, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bullish structure weakens below", "trend": 830.496665, "fair_value": 601.753101, "trend_gap": -1.0230823744487894, "fair_value_gap": 36.600874783028324 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 103, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 904.099976, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 14.748057933807086, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 113, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 822.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.08085147432854, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": -9.08085147432854, "weeks": 10, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "negative", "value": "1.0% below trend", "explanation": "Price remains below its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "negative", "value": "Falling", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "negative", "value": "Falling Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are weakening together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "negative", "value": "-0.3", "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "negative", "value": "-1.3", "explanation": "Participation is weak" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "negative", "value": "-0.7", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is weak" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "positive", "value": "+18.7", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive" } ], "positive": 1, "negative": 6, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 86, "direction": "defensive", "scenario_direction": "bullish" }, "evidence": { "score": 80, "history_score": 44, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 114, "confirmed_pivots": 9 }, "volume_ratio": 71.76079734219269, "historical": { "available": false, "matches": 0, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 0, "positive_rate": null, "median_return": null, "bar_width": 0, "average_return": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 0, "positive_rate": null, "median_return": null, "bar_width": 0, "average_return": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 0, "positive_rate": null, "median_return": null, "bar_width": 0, "average_return": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "setup", "label": "Setup in timing window", "now": "Possible Wave 2 trough is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is falling stack.", "next": "A weekly close through 904.10, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 787.90; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 24, "constructive_count": 11, "constructive_percent": 46, "rising_cycle_count": 8, "rising_cycle_percent": 33, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 161, "positive_rate": 52.2, "median_return": 0.7, "average_return": 0.06, "median_excess_return": 1.09, "excess_observations": 161, "p10": -11.4, "p90": 9.7 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 89, "positive_rate": 66.3, "median_return": 5.85, "average_return": 4.09, "median_excess_return": 4.32, "excess_observations": 89, "p10": -21.35, "p90": 20.8 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 70, "positive_rate": 67.1, "median_return": 12.31, "average_return": 11.68, "median_excess_return": 10.24, "excess_observations": 70, "p10": -29.08, "p90": 54.33 } ], "benchmark": "^SSMI", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 4.148415571776152, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 31, "label": "Watch", "tone": "watch", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 1.0% below the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 71% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 11, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 73, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 15, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 100/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 5, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 48, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has moderate recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling.", "Hurst risk alignment is 100/100." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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