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-18.972726431898245, "weeks": 22, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 124, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 8.495, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.092904913656357, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 9.882022, "confirmation": 8.007133, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 28 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "strategic-bearish-wave2", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 8.72; Wave 2 8.49.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 68% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 117, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 8.722832, "kind": "high", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 118, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 8.007133, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.204892631200517, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 124, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 8.495, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.092904913656357, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 8.722832, "confirmation": 8.007133, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 43 }, { "id": "tactical-bearish-wave2", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 9.88; Wave 2 8.49.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 26% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 96, "date": "2026-01-23", "price": 9.882022, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 5.614202075364676, "weeks": 14, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 118, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 8.007133, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -18.972726431898245, "weeks": 22, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 124, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 8.495, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.092904913656357, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 9.882022, "confirmation": 8.007133, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 28 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 8.0, "primary": { "id": "strategic-bearish-wave2", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 8.72; Wave 2 8.49.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 68% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 117, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 8.722832, "kind": "high", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 118, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 8.007133, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.204892631200517, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 124, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 8.495, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.092904913656357, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 8.722832, "confirmation": 8.007133, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 43 }, "candidate_count": 1, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 5.0, "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 9.88; Wave 2 8.49.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 26% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 96, "date": "2026-01-23", "price": 9.882022, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 21.387444841739097, "weeks": 41, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 118, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 8.007133, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -18.972726431898245, "weeks": 22, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 124, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 8.495, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.092904913656357, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 9.882022, "confirmation": 8.007133, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 28 }, "candidate_count": 1, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 3.5, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bearish-wave2", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 9.88; Wave 2 8.49.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 26% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 96, "date": "2026-01-23", "price": 9.882022, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 5.614202075364676, "weeks": 14, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 118, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 8.007133, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -18.972726431898245, "weeks": 22, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 124, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 8.495, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.092904913656357, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 9.882022, "confirmation": 8.007133, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 28 }, "candidate_count": 1, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 52, "changes": 3, "observations": 9, "label": "Moderate" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "cycle_rollover", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "confidence": 60, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "labels": [ { "index": 96, "date": "2026-01-23", "price": 9.882022, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 21.387444841739097, "weeks": 41, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 118, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 8.007133, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -18.972726431898245, "weeks": 22, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 124, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 8.495, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.092904913656357, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "notes": [ "Market Activity has fallen below zero.", "Market Dynamics is negative.", "30-week price rate of change is negative." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": -6.662813783798339, "fair_value_gap": -0.7861196336035587, "market_activity": -33.612106, "market_dynamics": -1.062413, "relative_strength": -8.603586, "roc30": -13.136945459408937, "hurst_alignment": 50, "hurst_risk": 50 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as possible bearish wave 2 crest. Price is 6.7% below its 30-week trend. 1 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": 0.8122177524915776 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": -8.435992986595883 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": -11.149554283490973 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": -7.687255505702698 } ], "range": { "high_52": 9.984898, "low_52": 7.944388, "position_52": 26.984038304149422, "drawdown": -14.921514471154339 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 14.714332619849355, "average_weekly_range": 1.8709165964246555, "active_drawdown": -14.035811699265597 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 118, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 8.007133, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -18.972726431898245, "weeks": 22, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": { "index": 96, "date": "2026-01-23", "price": 9.882022, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 21.387444841739097, "weeks": 41, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": { "index": 96, "date": "2026-01-23", "price": 9.882022, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 21.387444841739097, "weeks": 41, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above", "trend": 9.10141, "fair_value": 8.56231, "trend_gap": -6.662813783798339, "fair_value_gap": -0.7861196336035587 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 118, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 8.007133, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -18.972726431898245, "weeks": 22, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 124, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 8.495, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.092904913656357, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 6.092904913656357, "weeks": 6, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "negative", "value": "6.7% below trend", "explanation": "Price remains below its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "positive", "value": "Troughing", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "neutral", "value": "Mixed", "explanation": "Cycle lengths are not moving in one clear direction." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "negative", "value": "-8.6", "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "negative", "value": "-33.6", "explanation": "Participation is weak" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "negative", "value": "-1.1", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is weak" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "negative", "value": "-13.1", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is negative" } ], "positive": 1, "negative": 5, "neutral": 1, "observed": 7, "agreement": 71, "direction": "defensive", "scenario_direction": "bearish" }, "evidence": { "score": 75, "history_score": 48, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 67, "weekly_observations": 125, "confirmed_pivots": 4 }, "volume_ratio": 69.56446726985173, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 17, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 16, "positive_rate": 37.5, "median_return": -2.01, "bar_width": 10.049999999999999, "average_return": -2.0, "best_return": 5.97, "worst_return": -11.11 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 7, "positive_rate": 0.0, "median_return": -9.46, "bar_width": 47.300000000000004, "average_return": -9.12, "best_return": -6.12, "worst_return": -12.61 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 0, "positive_rate": null, "median_return": null, "bar_width": 0, "average_return": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "setup", "label": "Setup in timing window", "now": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is mixed.", "next": "A weekly close through 8.01, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 9.88; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 22, "constructive_count": 6, "constructive_percent": 27, "rising_cycle_count": 8, "rising_cycle_percent": 36, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 427, "positive_rate": 42.9, "median_return": -1.12, "average_return": 0.54, "median_excess_return": -0.2, "excess_observations": 427, "p10": -8.23, "p90": 11.24 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 159, "positive_rate": 46.5, "median_return": -1.58, "average_return": 0.27, "median_excess_return": -0.04, "excess_observations": 159, "p10": -14.52, "p90": 16.37 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 88, "positive_rate": 44.3, "median_return": -1.05, "average_return": 0.47, "median_excess_return": -1.19, "excess_observations": 88, "p10": -20.39, "p90": 23.91 } ], "benchmark": "^HSI", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 16.327510300176577, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 13, "label": "Contained", "tone": "contained", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 6.7% below the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 27% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is troughing." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 8, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 50, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 50/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 5, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 48, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has moderate recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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