{
  "ticker": {
    "symbol": "NEHI",
    "name": "NEOS ETHEREUM HIGH INCOME ETF",
    "exchange": "CBOE"
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  "latest_week": "2026-07-31",
  "latest_close": 26.42,
  "latest_open": 27.4,
  "latest_high": 27.71,
  "latest_low": 26.3,
  "bar_count": 35,
  "analysis_bar_count": 35,
  "reversal_percent": 9.238064743731568,
  "model": {
    "version": "ewc-2.1.0",
    "as_of": "2026-07-31",
    "price_basis": "weekly OHLCV; Elliott pivots use weekly closes",
    "wave_method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration",
    "cycle_method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation",
    "repainting_policy": "only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained"
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      "date": "2026-01-30",
      "price": 38.15503,
      "kind": "high",
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      "weeks": 0,
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      "date": "2026-02-27",
      "price": 28.003298,
      "kind": "low",
      "move_percent": -26.606536543150394,
      "weeks": 4,
      "confirmed": true
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    {
      "index": 19,
      "date": "2026-04-17",
      "price": 34.475174,
      "kind": "high",
      "move_percent": 23.111120697283592,
      "weeks": 7,
      "confirmed": true
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    {
      "index": 29,
      "date": "2026-06-26",
      "price": 22.90268,
      "kind": "low",
      "move_percent": -33.56761593139458,
      "weeks": 10,
      "confirmed": true
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    {
      "index": 34,
      "date": "2026-07-31",
      "price": 26.42,
      "kind": "high",
      "move_percent": 15.357678664680297,
      "weeks": 5,
      "confirmed": false
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  "cycle": {
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    "trend_bias": "bearish",
    "oscillator": -9.78341105290639,
    "slope": 9.014760588499149,
    "dominant_period_weeks": 14,
    "period_basis": "median confirmed trough-to-trough and crest-to-crest spacing",
    "weeks_since_turn": 5,
    "estimated_weeks_to_next_turn": 2,
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        "date": "2025-12-26",
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        "date": "2026-02-20",
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        "date": "2026-03-06",
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        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "date": "2026-07-10",
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    "status": "mixed",
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    "alignment_score": 75,
    "risk_score": 25,
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    "crest_alignment": 0,
    "nearest_trough_window": 15,
    "nearest_crest_window": 8,
    "method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation",
    "explanation": "Nominal cycles are starting bands, not fixed clocks. Each period adapts to the strongest nearby repeat in detrended weekly prices; projected turns are future intervals and require price confirmation.",
    "cycles": [
      {
        "period": 10,
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        "period_range": [
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          14
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        "period_strength": 0,
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        "value": -0.2488576385518176,
        "slope": 0.840598312036161,
        "amplitude": 11.182,
        "weeks_since_trough": 7,
        "weeks_since_crest": 12,
        "projected_trough_window": 5,
        "projected_crest_window": 12,
        "trough_window": {
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          "midpoint": 5,
          "end": 7
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        "crest_window": {
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          "midpoint": 12,
          "end": 14
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        "fld": {
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          "state": "crossed up",
          "weeks_since_cross": 1,
          "displacement": 6,
          "explanation": "Median price displaced forward by half the estimated wavelength; a price cross confirms a cyclic turn after it begins."
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        "vtl": {
          "available": true,
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          "state": "price above",
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          "explanation": "A provisional line through the latest two phased troughs; it is supporting evidence, not a standalone signal."
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            "date": "2026-03-06",
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        "estimated_period": 20,
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          24
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        "period_strength": 0,
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        "amplitude": 10.032,
        "weeks_since_trough": 5,
        "weeks_since_crest": 12,
        "projected_trough_window": 15,
        "projected_crest_window": 8,
        "trough_window": {
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          "midpoint": 15,
          "end": 19
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        "crest_window": {
          "start": 4,
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        "fld": {
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          "state": "crossed down",
          "weeks_since_cross": 9,
          "displacement": 10,
          "explanation": "Median price displaced forward by half the estimated wavelength; a price cross confirms a cyclic turn after it begins."
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        "vtl": {
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          "explanation": "A provisional line through the latest two phased troughs; it is supporting evidence, not a standalone signal."
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        "period": 40,
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        "estimated_period": 40,
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        "fld": {
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          "displacement": 20,
          "explanation": "Median price displaced forward by half the estimated wavelength; a price cross confirms a cyclic turn after it begins."
        },
        "vtl": {
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          "explanation": "Median price displaced forward by half the estimated wavelength; a price cross confirms a cyclic turn after it begins."
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  "structure": {
    "primary": {
      "id": "primary-bearish-wave4",
      "degree": "primary",
      "pattern": "impulse",
      "stage": "wave4",
      "title": "Possible bearish Wave 4 crest",
      "direction": "bearish",
      "score": 90,
      "rules": [
        {
          "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Origin 38.16; Wave 2 34.48.",
          "hard": true
        },
        {
          "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Wave 1 28.00; Wave 3 22.90.",
          "hard": true
        },
        {
          "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 28.00; Wave 4 26.42.",
          "hard": true
        }
      ],
      "guidelines": [
        {
          "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Retraced 64% of Wave 1.",
          "hard": false
        },
        {
          "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Wave 3 is 1.14\u00d7 Wave 1.",
          "hard": false
        },
        {
          "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Retraced 30% of Wave 3.",
          "hard": false
        },
        {
          "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 7w; Wave 4 lasted 5w.",
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      ],
      "labels": [
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          "index": 29,
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        {
          "index": 34,
          "date": "2026-07-31",
          "price": 26.42,
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      "invalidation": 34.475174,
      "confirmation": 22.90268,
      "forming": true,
      "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
      "evidence_weight": 47
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    "alternates": [
      {
        "id": "primary-bearish-wave2",
        "degree": "primary",
        "pattern": "impulse",
        "stage": "wave2",
        "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest",
        "direction": "bearish",
        "score": 63,
        "rules": [
          {
            "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Origin 34.48; Wave 2 26.42.",
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        ],
        "guidelines": [
          {
            "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Retraced 30% of Wave 1.",
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        ],
        "labels": [
          {
            "index": 19,
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          {
            "index": 34,
            "date": "2026-07-31",
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            "kind": "high",
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        ],
        "invalidation": 34.475174,
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        "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
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      },
      {
        "id": "strategic-bearish-wave4",
        "degree": "strategic",
        "pattern": "impulse",
        "stage": "wave4",
        "title": "Possible bearish Wave 4 crest",
        "direction": "bearish",
        "score": 90,
        "rules": [
          {
            "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Origin 38.16; Wave 2 34.48.",
            "hard": true
          },
          {
            "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Wave 1 28.00; Wave 3 22.90.",
            "hard": true
          },
          {
            "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 28.00; Wave 4 26.42.",
            "hard": true
          }
        ],
        "guidelines": [
          {
            "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Retraced 64% of Wave 1.",
            "hard": false
          },
          {
            "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Wave 3 is 1.14\u00d7 Wave 1.",
            "hard": false
          },
          {
            "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Retraced 30% of Wave 3.",
            "hard": false
          },
          {
            "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 7w; Wave 4 lasted 5w.",
            "hard": false
          }
        ],
        "labels": [
          {
            "index": 8,
            "date": "2026-01-30",
            "price": 38.15503,
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          {
            "index": 12,
            "date": "2026-02-27",
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            "confirmed": true,
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          {
            "index": 19,
            "date": "2026-04-17",
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            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 23.111120697283592,
            "weeks": 7,
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          {
            "index": 29,
            "date": "2026-06-26",
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            "confirmed": true,
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          },
          {
            "index": 34,
            "date": "2026-07-31",
            "price": 26.42,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 15.357678664680297,
            "weeks": 5,
            "confirmed": false,
            "label": "4"
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        ],
        "invalidation": 34.475174,
        "confirmation": 22.90268,
        "forming": true,
        "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
        "evidence_weight": 47
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    ],
    "degrees": [
      {
        "key": "strategic",
        "label": "Strategic",
        "reversal_percent": 14.78090358997051,
        "primary": {
          "id": "strategic-bearish-wave4",
          "degree": "strategic",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave4",
          "title": "Possible bearish Wave 4 crest",
          "direction": "bearish",
          "score": 90,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 38.16; Wave 2 34.48.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 1 28.00; Wave 3 22.90.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 28.00; Wave 4 26.42.",
              "hard": true
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 64% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 3 is 1.14\u00d7 Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 30% of Wave 3.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 7w; Wave 4 lasted 5w.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 8,
              "date": "2026-01-30",
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              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
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            {
              "index": 12,
              "date": "2026-02-27",
              "price": 28.003298,
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              "move_percent": -26.606536543150394,
              "weeks": 4,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
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            {
              "index": 19,
              "date": "2026-04-17",
              "price": 34.475174,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 23.111120697283592,
              "weeks": 7,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "2"
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            {
              "index": 29,
              "date": "2026-06-26",
              "price": 22.90268,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -33.56761593139458,
              "weeks": 10,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "3"
            },
            {
              "index": 34,
              "date": "2026-07-31",
              "price": 26.42,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 15.357678664680297,
              "weeks": 5,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "4"
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          ],
          "invalidation": 34.475174,
          "confirmation": 22.90268,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
          "evidence_weight": 47
        },
        "candidate_count": 2,
        "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 14.8% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "primary",
        "label": "Primary",
        "reversal_percent": 9.238064743731568,
        "primary": {
          "id": "primary-bearish-wave4",
          "degree": "primary",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave4",
          "title": "Possible bearish Wave 4 crest",
          "direction": "bearish",
          "score": 90,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 38.16; Wave 2 34.48.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 1 28.00; Wave 3 22.90.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 28.00; Wave 4 26.42.",
              "hard": true
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 64% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 3 is 1.14\u00d7 Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 30% of Wave 3.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 7w; Wave 4 lasted 5w.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 8,
              "date": "2026-01-30",
              "price": 38.15503,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": null,
              "weeks": 0,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 12,
              "date": "2026-02-27",
              "price": 28.003298,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -26.606536543150394,
              "weeks": 4,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 19,
              "date": "2026-04-17",
              "price": 34.475174,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 23.111120697283592,
              "weeks": 7,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "2"
            },
            {
              "index": 29,
              "date": "2026-06-26",
              "price": 22.90268,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -33.56761593139458,
              "weeks": 10,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "3"
            },
            {
              "index": 34,
              "date": "2026-07-31",
              "price": 26.42,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 15.357678664680297,
              "weeks": 5,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "4"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 34.475174,
          "confirmation": 22.90268,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
          "evidence_weight": 47
        },
        "candidate_count": 2,
        "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 9.2% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "tactical",
        "label": "Tactical",
        "reversal_percent": 6.4666453206120975,
        "primary": {
          "id": "tactical-bearish-wave4",
          "degree": "tactical",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave4",
          "title": "Possible bearish Wave 4 crest",
          "direction": "bearish",
          "score": 90,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 45.70; Wave 2 34.48.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 1 28.00; Wave 3 22.90.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 28.00; Wave 4 26.42.",
              "hard": true
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 37% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.65\u00d7 Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 30% of Wave 3.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 7w; Wave 4 lasted 5w.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 6,
              "date": "2026-01-16",
              "price": 45.69589,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": null,
              "weeks": 0,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 12,
              "date": "2026-02-27",
              "price": 28.003298,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -38.71812541565554,
              "weeks": 6,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 19,
              "date": "2026-04-17",
              "price": 34.475174,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 23.111120697283592,
              "weeks": 7,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "2"
            },
            {
              "index": 29,
              "date": "2026-06-26",
              "price": 22.90268,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -33.56761593139458,
              "weeks": 10,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "3"
            },
            {
              "index": 34,
              "date": "2026-07-31",
              "price": 26.42,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 15.357678664680297,
              "weeks": 5,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "4"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 34.475174,
          "confirmation": 22.90268,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements."
        },
        "candidate_count": 2,
        "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 6.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      }
    ],
    "stability": {
      "score": 0,
      "changes": null,
      "observations": 0,
      "label": "Unavailable"
    },
    "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration",
    "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities."
  },
  "scenario": {
    "setup": "warming",
    "title": "Needs more weekly history",
    "direction": "neutral",
    "confidence": 20,
    "labels": [],
    "notes": [
      "At least 65 weekly bars gives the wave and cycle model enough context."
    ],
    "metrics": {}
  },
  "detail": {
    "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as needs more weekly history. Price is 13.7% below its 30-week trend. 1 of 6 available confirmation measures are constructive.",
    "returns": [
      {
        "weeks": 4,
        "label": "4-week return",
        "value": 8.661573611244847
      },
      {
        "weeks": 13,
        "label": "13-week return",
        "value": -20.8584740728976
      },
      {
        "weeks": 26,
        "label": "26-week return",
        "value": -30.756180770923248
      },
      {
        "weeks": 52,
        "label": "52-week return",
        "value": null
      }
    ],
    "range": {
      "high_52": 46.635891,
      "low_52": 22.250543,
      "position_52": 17.098205857058105,
      "drawdown": -43.34835373896898
    },
    "risk": {
      "annualised_volatility": 51.45485272747345,
      "average_weekly_range": 8.585246748482719,
      "active_drawdown": -42.18298407143399
    },
    "levels": {
      "support": {
        "index": 29,
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "price": 22.90268,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -33.56761593139458,
        "weeks": 10,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "resistance": {
        "index": 19,
        "date": "2026-04-17",
        "price": 34.475174,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 23.111120697283592,
        "weeks": 7,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "decisive": {
        "index": 29,
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "price": 22.90268,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -33.56761593139458,
        "weeks": 10,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "decisive_label": "Nearest confirmed structure level",
      "trend": 30.611657,
      "fair_value": 32.242557,
      "trend_gap": -13.693009169676763,
      "fair_value_gap": -18.058608068832743
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    "active_swing": {
      "from": {
        "index": 29,
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "price": 22.90268,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -33.56761593139458,
        "weeks": 10,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "to": {
        "index": 34,
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "price": 26.42,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 15.357678664680297,
        "weeks": 5,
        "confirmed": false
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      "move_percent": 15.357678664680297,
      "weeks": 5,
      "status": "Forming"
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    "confirmation": {
      "rows": [
        {
          "label": "Trend",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "13.7% below trend",
          "explanation": "Price remains below its 30-week trend."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle pressure",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "Troughing",
          "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle alignment",
          "status": "neutral",
          "value": "Mixed",
          "explanation": "Cycle lengths are not moving in one clear direction."
        },
        {
          "label": "Relative strength",
          "status": "neutral",
          "value": "Unavailable",
          "explanation": "The reading is neutral or unavailable."
        },
        {
          "label": "Market activity",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "-57.5",
          "explanation": "Participation is weak"
        },
        {
          "label": "Market dynamics",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "-0.5",
          "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is weak"
        },
        {
          "label": "30-week momentum",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "-39.0",
          "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is negative"
        }
      ],
      "positive": 1,
      "negative": 4,
      "neutral": 1,
      "observed": 6,
      "agreement": 67,
      "direction": "defensive",
      "scenario_direction": "neutral"
    },
    "evidence": {
      "score": 32,
      "history_score": 13,
      "indicator_coverage": 31,
      "structure_score": 67,
      "weekly_observations": 35,
      "confirmed_pivots": 4
    },
    "volume_ratio": 58.64858484098018,
    "historical": {
      "available": false,
      "matches": 0,
      "horizons": [],
      "note": "At least 90 weekly observations are required."
    },
    "lifecycle": {
      "state": "watching",
      "label": "Watching",
      "now": "Possible bearish Wave 4 crest is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is mixed.",
      "next": "A weekly close through 22.90, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.",
      "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 34.48; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.",
      "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.",
      "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation."
    },
    "peer_evidence": {
      "available": true,
      "peers": 17,
      "constructive_count": 10,
      "constructive_percent": 59,
      "rising_cycle_count": 6,
      "rising_cycle_percent": 35,
      "horizons": [
        {
          "weeks": 4,
          "observations": 219,
          "positive_rate": 53.4,
          "median_return": 0.26,
          "average_return": 1.19,
          "median_excess_return": -0.69,
          "excess_observations": 219,
          "p10": -6.72,
          "p90": 9.02
        },
        {
          "weeks": 13,
          "observations": 90,
          "positive_rate": 55.6,
          "median_return": 0.98,
          "average_return": 1.85,
          "median_excess_return": -1.26,
          "excess_observations": 90,
          "p10": -11.14,
          "p90": 20.09
        },
        {
          "weeks": 26,
          "observations": 53,
          "positive_rate": 50.9,
          "median_return": 0.32,
          "average_return": 4.22,
          "median_excess_return": -6.15,
          "excess_observations": 53,
          "p10": -11.23,
          "p90": 18.43
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      ],
      "benchmark": "SPY",
      "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count."
    },
    "event_positioning": {
      "earnings_date": null,
      "earnings_weeks": null,
      "options_available": false,
      "options_direction": null,
      "options_conviction": null,
      "expected_move": null,
      "invalidation_distance": 30.48892505677517,
      "collision": false,
      "flags": [],
      "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure."
    },
    "downside_vulnerability": {
      "score": 14,
      "label": "Contained",
      "tone": "contained",
      "components": [
        {
          "key": "wave",
          "label": "Wave maturity",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 25,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5."
        },
        {
          "key": "extension",
          "label": "Trend extension",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 20,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Price is 13.7% below the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability."
        },
        {
          "key": "range",
          "label": "Range position",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Price is 17% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range."
        },
        {
          "key": "cycle",
          "label": "Cycle rollover",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is troughing."
        },
        {
          "key": "hurst",
          "label": "Multi-cycle risk",
          "score": 4,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 25,
          "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 25/100."
        },
        {
          "key": "stability",
          "label": "Count instability",
          "score": 10,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 100,
          "explanation": "The primary interpretation has unavailable recent stability."
        },
        {
          "key": "event",
          "label": "Event proximity",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available."
        }
      ],
      "warnings": [
        "The primary interpretation has unavailable recent stability."
      ],
      "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down."
    }
  },
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