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true, "detail": "Wave 1 9.43; Wave 3 9.78.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 32% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.49\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 48, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 7.318, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.707584830339327, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 94, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 9.425, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 28.792019677507533, "weeks": 46, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 98, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 8.759, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.066312997347484, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 115, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 9.783, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 11.69083228679072, "weeks": 17, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 8.759, "confirmation": 9.783, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 36 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bearish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 66, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 7.32; Wave B 8.76.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 2.11; C length 1.02.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.49\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 48, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 7.318, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.707584830339327, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 94, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 9.425, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 28.792019677507533, "weeks": 46, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 98, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 8.759, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.066312997347484, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 115, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 9.783, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 11.69083228679072, "weeks": 17, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 9.783, "confirmation": 8.759, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 28 }, { "id": "tactical-bullish-wave3", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 69, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 7.32; Wave 2 8.76.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 9.43; Wave 3 9.78.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 32% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.49\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 48, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 7.318, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -14.887183065829275, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 94, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 9.425, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 28.792019677507533, "weeks": 46, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 98, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 8.759, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.066312997347484, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 115, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 9.783, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 11.69083228679072, "weeks": 17, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 8.759, "confirmation": 9.783, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 36 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 8.0, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 5.0, "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-wave3", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 69, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 7.32; Wave 2 8.76.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 9.43; Wave 3 9.78.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 32% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.49\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 48, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 7.318, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.707584830339327, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 94, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 9.425, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 28.792019677507533, "weeks": 46, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 98, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 8.759, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.066312997347484, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 115, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 9.783, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 11.69083228679072, "weeks": 17, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 8.759, "confirmation": 9.783, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 36 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 3.5, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bullish-wave3", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 69, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 7.32; Wave 2 8.76.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 9.43; Wave 3 9.78.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 32% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.49\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 48, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 7.318, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -14.887183065829275, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 94, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 9.425, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 28.792019677507533, "weeks": 46, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 98, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 8.759, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.066312997347484, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 115, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 9.783, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 11.69083228679072, "weeks": 17, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 8.759, "confirmation": 9.783, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 36 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 100, "changes": 0, "observations": 9, "label": "High" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "wave3_continuation", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "confidence": 80, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bullish-wave3", "labels": [ { "index": 48, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 7.318, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.707584830339327, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 94, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 9.425, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 28.792019677507533, "weeks": 46, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 98, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 8.759, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.066312997347484, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 115, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 9.783, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 11.69083228679072, "weeks": 17, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "notes": [ "Price is above the 30-week trend line.", "Market Activity is positive.", "Market Dynamics supports the setup.", "30-week price rate of change is positive." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": 4.815614837382589, "fair_value_gap": 13.775685009172536, "market_activity": 74.267934, "market_dynamics": 1.004687, "relative_strength": -1.774084, "roc30": 9.368362213527101, "hurst_alignment": 50, "hurst_risk": 50 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as possible wave 3 advancing. Price is 4.8% above its 30-week trend. 5 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": 0.5033901787548746 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": 5.477088948787053 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 6.47583804962994 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 14.11407908550098 } ], "range": { "high_52": 9.825, "low_52": 8.291, "position_52": 97.26205997392438, "drawdown": -0.4274809160305325 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 9.970464940702193, "average_weekly_range": 0.9106589214125376, "active_drawdown": -0.10211375472275899 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 98, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 8.759, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.066312997347484, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": null, "decisive": { "index": 98, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 8.759, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.066312997347484, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bullish structure weakens below", "trend": 9.333533, "fair_value": 8.598498, "trend_gap": 4.815614837382589, "fair_value_gap": 13.775685009172536 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 98, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 8.759, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.066312997347484, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 115, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 9.783, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 11.69083228679072, "weeks": 17, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 11.69083228679072, "weeks": 17, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "4.8% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "positive", "value": "Rising", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "neutral", "value": "Mixed", "explanation": "Cycle lengths are not moving in one clear direction." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "negative", "value": "-1.8", "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "positive", "value": "+74.3", "explanation": "Participation is supportive" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "positive", "value": "+1.0", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "positive", "value": "+9.4", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive" } ], "positive": 5, "negative": 1, "neutral": 1, "observed": 7, "agreement": 71, "direction": "constructive", "scenario_direction": "bullish" }, "evidence": { "score": 74, "history_score": 45, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 67, "weekly_observations": 116, "confirmed_pivots": 4 }, "volume_ratio": 16.679418515684773, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 37, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 36, "positive_rate": 72.2, "median_return": 1.71, "bar_width": 8.55, "average_return": 0.73, "best_return": 4.08, "worst_return": -7.07 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 27, "positive_rate": 74.1, "median_return": 1.72, "bar_width": 8.6, "average_return": 1.62, "best_return": 7.27, "worst_return": -2.08 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 21, "positive_rate": 100.0, "median_return": 7.86, "bar_width": 39.300000000000004, "average_return": 6.9, "best_return": 11.91, "worst_return": 0.91 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "watching", "label": "Watching", "now": "Possible Wave 3 advancing is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is mixed.", "next": "A weekly close through 9.78, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 8.76; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 24, "constructive_count": 11, "constructive_percent": 46, "rising_cycle_count": 8, "rising_cycle_percent": 33, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 699, "positive_rate": 62.1, "median_return": 0.82, "average_return": 0.66, "median_excess_return": 0.1, "excess_observations": 699, "p10": -6.8, "p90": 6.51 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 244, "positive_rate": 71.3, "median_return": 3.44, "average_return": 3.39, "median_excess_return": 1.44, "excess_observations": 244, "p10": -11.5, "p90": 17.53 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 133, "positive_rate": 76.7, "median_return": 5.49, "average_return": 4.91, "median_excess_return": 3.54, "excess_observations": 133, "p10": -17.08, "p90": 26.25 } ], "benchmark": "^SSMI", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 10.467136870080745, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 21, "label": "Contained", "tone": "contained", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 4.8% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 13, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 89, "explanation": "Price is 97% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is rising." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 8, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 50, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 50/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has high recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "Price is 97% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down." } }, "chart": { "dates": [ "2024-05-10", "2024-05-17", "2024-05-24", "2024-05-31", "2024-06-07", "2024-06-14", "2024-06-21", "2024-06-28", "2024-07-05", "2024-07-12", "2024-07-19", "2024-07-26", "2024-08-02", "2024-08-09", "2024-08-16", "2024-08-23", "2024-08-30", "2024-09-06", "2024-09-13", "2024-09-20", "2024-09-27", "2024-10-04", "2024-10-11", "2024-10-18", "2024-10-25", "2024-11-01", "2024-11-08", "2024-11-15", "2024-11-22", "2024-11-29", "2024-12-06", "2024-12-13", "2024-12-20", "2024-12-27", "2025-01-03", "2025-01-10", "2025-01-17", "2025-01-24", "2025-01-31", "2025-02-07", "2025-02-14", "2025-02-21", "2025-02-28", "2025-03-07", "2025-03-14", "2025-03-21", "2025-03-28", "2025-04-04", "2025-04-11", "2025-04-18", "2025-04-25", "2025-05-02", "2025-05-09", "2025-05-16", "2025-05-23", "2025-05-30", "2025-06-06", "2025-06-13", "2025-06-20", 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