{ "ticker": { "symbol": "2087", "name": "NORINCHUKIN ZENKYOREN AM CO LTD", "exchange": "JPX" }, "latest_week": "2026-08-07", "latest_close": 3438.0, "latest_open": 3335.0, "latest_high": 3490.0, "latest_low": 3335.0, "bar_count": 151, "analysis_bar_count": 151, "reversal_percent": 5.123739044078949, "model": { "version": "ewc-2.1.0", "as_of": "2026-08-07", "price_basis": "weekly OHLCV; Elliott pivots use weekly closes", "wave_method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "cycle_method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation", "repainting_policy": "only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained" }, "pivots": [ { "index": 46, "date": "2024-08-09", "price": 2276.983887, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -12.733157330260221, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 47, "date": "2024-08-16", "price": 2489.039063, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 9.312985357985552, "weeks": 1, 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"weeks": 15, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 141, "date": "2026-06-05", "price": 3575.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 27.42921957009236, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 148, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 3370.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.734265734265734, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 150, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 3438.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 2.0178041543026706, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": false } ], "cycle": { "phase": "cresting", "trend_bias": "bullish", "oscillator": 2.9346375183497715, "slope": -5.760749298134756, "dominant_period_weeks": 24, "period_basis": "median confirmed trough-to-trough and crest-to-crest spacing", "weeks_since_turn": 2, "estimated_weeks_to_next_turn": 10, "series": [ { "date": "2023-09-22", "value": null }, { "date": "2023-09-29", "value": null }, { "date": "2023-10-06", "value": null }, { "date": "2023-10-13", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2023-10-20", "value": 0.0 }, { "date": "2023-10-27", "value": 0.0 }, { 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phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation", "explanation": "Nominal cycles are starting bands, not fixed clocks. Each period adapts to the strongest nearby repeat in detrended weekly prices; projected turns are future intervals and require price confirmation.", "cycles": [ { "period": 10, "label": "10w", "estimated_period": 8, "period_range": [ 5, 11 ], "period_strength": 0, "phase": "falling", "value": -0.6515809649617835, "slope": -0.06355344067139779, "amplitude": 2.09, "weeks_since_trough": 1, "weeks_since_crest": 10, "projected_trough_window": 7, "projected_crest_window": 6, "trough_window": { "start": 4, "midpoint": 7, "end": 10 }, "crest_window": { "start": 3, "midpoint": 6, "end": 9 }, "fld": { "value": 3454.0, "state": "crossed down", "weeks_since_cross": 3, "displacement": 4, "explanation": "Median price displaced forward by half the estimated wavelength; a price cross confirms a cyclic turn after it begins." }, "vtl": { "available": true, "value": 3227.1384708235296, "state": "price above", "slope": 28.1384708235294, "explanation": "A provisional line through the latest two phased 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0.7343140367597468 }, { "date": "2025-01-31", "value": 0.7915036269664136 }, { "date": "2025-02-07", "value": 0.8480762052772901 }, { "date": "2025-02-14", "value": 0.8470442519506175 }, { "date": "2025-02-21", "value": 0.9479193545663437 }, { "date": "2025-02-28", "value": 0.5977318190657114 }, { "date": "2025-03-07", "value": 0.15339097972567117 }, { "date": "2025-03-14", "value": -0.31351101227377404 }, { "date": "2025-03-21", "value": -0.6065617747183857 }, { "date": "2025-03-28", "value": -0.22527248320974425 }, { "date": "2025-04-04", "value": -0.47417023876020037 }, { "date": "2025-04-11", "value": -0.61316585238017 }, { "date": "2025-04-18", "value": -0.6075130241849824 }, { "date": "2025-04-25", "value": -0.669836417362268 }, { "date": "2025-05-02", "value": -0.4581973790386964 }, { "date": "2025-05-09", "value": -0.23500808741500231 }, { "date": "2025-05-16", "value": 0.1816675371143632 }, { "date": "2025-05-23", "value": 0.43006336524983935 }, { "date": "2025-05-30", "value": 0.6120855801428211 }, { "date": "2025-06-06", "value": 0.7593528253516635 }, { "date": "2025-06-13", "value": 0.8693781960546663 }, { "date": "2025-06-20", "value": 0.937291856842501 }, { "date": "2025-06-27", "value": 1.0012007757418593 }, { "date": "2025-07-04", "value": 1.1850544224380681 }, { "date": "2025-07-11", "value": 1.2998925136429618 }, { "date": "2025-07-18", "value": 1.4285680325853558 }, { "date": "2025-07-25", "value": 1.5279923207921224 }, { "date": "2025-08-01", "value": 1.5715672324200638 }, { "date": "2025-08-08", "value": 1.6184508440786556 }, { "date": "2025-08-15", "value": 1.7043610456513938 }, { "date": "2025-08-22", "value": 1.7469436063818296 }, { "date": "2025-08-29", "value": 1.6910747304991984 }, { "date": "2025-09-05", "value": 1.6024171822776843 }, { "date": "2025-09-12", "value": 1.5194864981549077 }, { "date": "2025-09-19", "value": 1.6135671419583821 }, { "date": "2025-09-26", "value": 1.6895951672514158 }, { "date": "2025-10-03", "value": 1.7325108075416416 }, { "date": "2025-10-10", "value": 1.7600811139636332 }, { "date": "2025-10-17", "value": 1.752090689571547 }, { "date": "2025-10-24", "value": 1.6841608250905589 }, { "date": "2025-10-31", "value": 1.7579312142839851 }, { "date": "2025-11-07", "value": 1.6451156488714362 }, { "date": "2025-11-14", "value": 1.5986112645483102 }, { "date": "2025-11-21", "value": 1.3113986808360076 }, { "date": "2025-11-28", "value": 1.2689557288333617 }, { "date": "2025-12-05", "value": 1.259452876777202 }, { "date": "2025-12-12", "value": 1.3147092595805747 }, { "date": "2025-12-19", "value": 1.157671793578486 }, { "date": "2025-12-26", "value": 1.1683878633821523 }, { "date": "2026-01-02", "value": 1.1491036423753977 }, { "date": "2026-01-09", "value": 1.1212566566957387 }, { "date": "2026-01-16", "value": 1.0855340905629065 }, { "date": "2026-01-23", "value": 1.0369966113540456 }, { "date": "2026-01-30", "value": 1.0141864446321334 }, { "date": "2026-02-06", "value": 0.7515435028724973 }, { "date": "2026-02-13", "value": 0.5970198969604047 }, { "date": "2026-02-20", "value": 0.5380525320529315 }, { "date": "2026-02-27", "value": 0.5136901689592982 }, { "date": "2026-03-06", "value": 0.5066451451663712 }, { "date": "2026-03-13", "value": 0.42082985258153915 }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "value": 0.3315074420002323 }, { "date": "2026-03-27", "value": 0.13813136785180627 }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "value": 0.02969542466927577 }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "value": 0.18280548182305673 }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "value": 0.47490090087011916 }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": 0.7704680744316607 }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 1.0179596772106438 }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": 1.2344902411485896 }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": 1.4307796104678667 }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": 1.5990341466008002 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": 1.7686580544902963 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": 1.8879367355537147 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": 1.7848976007469128 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": 1.7564505568509616 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": 1.580739338054575 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": 1.5043054195042307 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": 1.45499111803127 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": 1.3489680320593385 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": 1.2147558750389837 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": 1.076122815914325 }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "value": 1.0973223205063227 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 3575.00; Wave 2 3438.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 33% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 141, "date": "2026-06-05", "price": 3575.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 27.42921957009236, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 148, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 3370.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.734265734265734, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 150, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 3438.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 2.0178041543026706, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 3575.0, "confirmation": 3370.0, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 43 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bearish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 2805.48; Wave B 3370.00.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 769.52; C length 68.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave C is 0.09\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 131, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 2805.479004, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.468600292389212, "weeks": 15, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 141, "date": "2026-06-05", "price": 3575.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 27.42921957009236, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 148, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 3370.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.734265734265734, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 150, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 3438.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 2.0178041543026706, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 3438.0, "confirmation": 3370.0, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 28 }, { "id": "tactical-bearish-wave2", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 3575.00; Wave 2 3438.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 14% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 141, "date": "2026-06-05", "price": 3575.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 27.42921957009236, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 144, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 3415.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -4.475524475524476, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 150, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 3438.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 0.6734992679355783, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 3575.0, "confirmation": 3415.0, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 28 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 8.197982470526318, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.2% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 5.123739044078949, "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 3575.00; Wave 2 3438.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 33% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 141, "date": "2026-06-05", "price": 3575.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 27.42921957009236, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 148, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 3370.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.734265734265734, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 150, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 3438.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 2.0178041543026706, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 3575.0, "confirmation": 3370.0, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 43 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.1% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 3.586617330855264, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bearish-wave2", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 3575.00; Wave 2 3438.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 14% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 141, "date": "2026-06-05", "price": 3575.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 27.42921957009236, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 144, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 3415.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -4.475524475524476, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 150, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 3438.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 0.6734992679355783, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 3575.0, "confirmation": 3415.0, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 28 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.6% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 36, "changes": 4, "observations": 9, "label": "Low" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "hurst_crest_risk", "title": "Hurst crest risk", "direction": "risk", "confidence": 82, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "labels": [ { "index": 141, "date": "2026-06-05", "price": 3575.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 27.42921957009236, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 148, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 3370.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.734265734265734, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 150, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 3438.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 2.0178041543026706, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "notes": [ "Hurst rhythm shows a falling stack.", "Hurst risk alignment is elevated.", "Market Dynamics is negative." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": 7.1066283458465715, "fair_value_gap": 29.608621272340827, "market_activity": 20.27708, "market_dynamics": -0.103705, "relative_strength": -8.168159, "roc30": 12.906114241224767, "hurst_alignment": 0, "hurst_risk": 100 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as hurst crest risk. Price is 7.1% above its 30-week trend. 3 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": -0.9792626728110599 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": 1.5957446808510638 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 18.90802576370855 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 21.55307739063854 } ], "range": { "high_52": 3610.0, "low_52": 2720.645996, "position_52": 80.66011967940722, "drawdown": -4.7645429362880884 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 16.463137420763648, "average_weekly_range": 2.162465776134428, "active_drawdown": -3.832167832167832 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 148, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 3370.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.734265734265734, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": { "index": 141, "date": "2026-06-05", "price": 3575.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 27.42921957009236, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": { "index": 141, "date": "2026-06-05", "price": 3575.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 27.42921957009236, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above", "trend": 3209.885376, "fair_value": 2652.601321, "trend_gap": 7.1066283458465715, "fair_value_gap": 29.608621272340827 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 148, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 3370.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.734265734265734, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 150, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 3438.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 2.0178041543026706, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 2.0178041543026706, "weeks": 2, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "7.1% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "negative", "value": "Cresting", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "negative", "value": "Falling Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are weakening together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "negative", "value": "-8.2", "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "positive", "value": "+20.3", "explanation": "Participation is supportive" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "negative", "value": "-0.1", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is weak" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "positive", "value": "+12.9", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive" } ], "positive": 3, "negative": 4, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 57, "direction": "defensive", "scenario_direction": "risk" }, "evidence": { "score": 85, "history_score": 58, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 151, "confirmed_pivots": 16 }, "volume_ratio": 665.7340992872104, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 37, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 36, "positive_rate": 58.3, "median_return": 0.82, "bar_width": 4.1, "average_return": 0.68, "best_return": 11.09, "worst_return": -7.61 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 34, "positive_rate": 58.8, "median_return": 2.25, "bar_width": 11.25, "average_return": 3.18, "best_return": 22.33, "worst_return": -14.39 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 25, "positive_rate": 88.0, "median_return": 10.49, "bar_width": 52.45, "average_return": 9.06, "best_return": 20.57, "worst_return": -5.46 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "triggered", "label": "Triggered", "now": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is falling stack.", "next": "A weekly close through 3370.00, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 3575.00; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 24, "constructive_count": 16, "constructive_percent": 67, "rising_cycle_count": 6, "rising_cycle_percent": 25, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 859, "positive_rate": 62.2, "median_return": 1.25, "average_return": 0.71, "median_excess_return": 0.03, "excess_observations": 859, "p10": -5.13, "p90": 6.53 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 304, "positive_rate": 68.1, "median_return": 2.45, "average_return": 3.28, "median_excess_return": 0.25, "excess_observations": 304, "p10": -7.27, "p90": 15.4 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 163, "positive_rate": 60.7, "median_return": 3.44, "average_return": 6.66, "median_excess_return": 0.87, "excess_observations": 163, "p10": -7.37, "p90": 28.94 } ], "benchmark": "^N225", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 3.9848749272833044, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 41, "label": "Watch", "tone": "watch", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 2, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 9, "explanation": "Price is 7.1% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 3, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 23, "explanation": "Price is 81% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 15, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 15, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 100/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 6, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 64, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has low recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting.", "Hurst risk alignment is 100/100." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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