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"primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 17.95; Wave 2 16.75.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 35% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 260, "date": "2026-05-01", "price": 17.950001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 23.79311034482759, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 265, "date": "2026-06-05", "price": 16.1, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -10.306411682094051, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 16.75, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 4.037267080745332, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 17.950001, "confirmation": 16.1, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 8 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bearish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 14.50; Wave B 16.10.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 3.45; C length 0.65.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave C is 0.19\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 254, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 14.5, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -26.582278481012658, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 260, "date": "2026-05-01", "price": 17.950001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 23.79311034482759, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 265, "date": "2026-06-05", "price": 16.1, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -10.306411682094051, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 16.75, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 4.037267080745332, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 16.75, "confirmation": 16.1, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 5 }, { "id": "strategic-bearish-wave5", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave5", "title": "Five-wave decline mature", "direction": "bearish", "score": 92, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 48.05; Wave 2 31.90.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 23.72; Wave 3 14.50.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 23.72; Wave 4 16.80.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 is not the shortest motive wave", "passed": true, "detail": "Motive lengths: 24.33, 17.40, 0.05.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 5 makes motive progress", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 14.50; Wave 5 16.75.", "hard": false } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 34% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.72\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 13% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 4w; Wave 4 lasted 4w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 207, "date": "2025-04-18", "price": 48.047846, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 48.23529157692708, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 218, "date": "2025-07-04", "price": 23.718857, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -50.63492128242336, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 222, "date": "2025-08-01", "price": 31.904787, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 34.51232915650193, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 254, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 14.5, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -54.55227455365867, "weeks": 32, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 258, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 16.799999, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 15.862062068965516, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "4" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 16.75, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -0.2976131129531596, "weeks": 17, "confirmed": false, "label": "5" } ], "invalidation": 16.799999, "confirmation": 16.75, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 87 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 15.655450531463778, "primary": { "id": "strategic-bearish-wave5", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave5", "title": "Five-wave decline mature", "direction": "bearish", "score": 92, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 48.05; Wave 2 31.90.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 23.72; Wave 3 14.50.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 23.72; Wave 4 16.80.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 is not the shortest motive wave", "passed": true, "detail": "Motive lengths: 24.33, 17.40, 0.05.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 5 makes motive progress", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 14.50; Wave 5 16.75.", "hard": false } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 34% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.72\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 13% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 4w; Wave 4 lasted 4w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 207, "date": "2025-04-18", "price": 48.047846, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 48.23529157692708, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 218, "date": "2025-07-04", "price": 23.718857, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -50.63492128242336, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 222, "date": "2025-08-01", "price": 31.904787, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 34.51232915650193, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 254, "date": "2026-03-20", "price": 14.5, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -54.55227455365867, "weeks": 32, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 258, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 16.799999, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 15.862062068965516, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "4" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 16.75, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -0.2976131129531596, "weeks": 17, "confirmed": false, "label": "5" } ], "invalidation": 16.799999, "confirmation": 16.75, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 87 }, "candidate_count": 3, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 15.7% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 9.78465658216486, "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 17.95; Wave 2 16.75.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 35% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 260, "date": "2026-05-01", "price": 17.950001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 23.79311034482759, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 265, "date": "2026-06-05", "price": 16.1, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -10.306411682094051, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 16.75, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 4.037267080745332, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 17.950001, "confirmation": 16.1, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 8 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 9.8% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 6.8492596075154015, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bearish-wave2", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 17.95; Wave 2 16.75.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 27% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 260, "date": "2026-05-01", "price": 17.950001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 23.79311034482759, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 264, "date": "2026-05-29", "price": 16.299999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.192211187063448, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 16.75, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 2.760742500659051, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 17.950001, "confirmation": 16.299999, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements." }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 6.8% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 4, "changes": 6, "observations": 9, "label": "Low" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "cycle_rollover", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "confidence": 70, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "labels": [ { "index": 260, "date": "2026-05-01", "price": 17.950001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 23.79311034482759, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 265, "date": "2026-06-05", "price": 16.1, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -10.306411682094051, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 16.75, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 4.037267080745332, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "notes": [ "Market Activity has fallen below zero.", "30-week price rate of change is negative." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": 0.7821901323706317, "fair_value_gap": -29.252992271090037, "market_activity": -10.575089, "market_dynamics": 0.272525, "relative_strength": -41.83096, "roc30": -6.944444444444445, "hurst_alignment": 75, "hurst_risk": 25 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as possible bearish wave 2 crest. Price is 0.8% above its 30-week trend. 3 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": 5.678233438485806 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": 0.0 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": -4.829545454545462 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": -46.4329698642442 } ], "range": { "high_52": 31.650565, "low_52": 14.0, "position_52": 15.580237799753153, "drawdown": -47.07835389352449 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 31.024193930138622, "average_weekly_range": 5.776182959992362, "active_drawdown": -77.31929442342519 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 265, "date": "2026-06-05", "price": 16.1, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -10.306411682094051, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": { "index": 260, "date": "2026-05-01", "price": 17.950001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 23.79311034482759, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": { "index": 260, "date": "2026-05-01", "price": 17.950001, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 23.79311034482759, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above", "trend": 16.62, "fair_value": 23.675913, "trend_gap": 0.7821901323706317, "fair_value_gap": -29.252992271090037 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 265, "date": "2026-06-05", "price": 16.1, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -10.306411682094051, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 16.75, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 4.037267080745332, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 4.037267080745332, "weeks": 10, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "0.8% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "negative", "value": "Falling", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "positive", "value": "Rising Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are improving together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "negative", "value": "-41.8", "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "negative", "value": "-10.6", "explanation": "Participation is weak" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "positive", "value": "+0.3", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "negative", "value": "-6.9", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is negative" } ], "positive": 3, "negative": 4, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 57, "direction": "defensive", "scenario_direction": "bearish" }, "evidence": { "score": 100, "history_score": 100, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 276, "confirmed_pivots": 34 }, "volume_ratio": 35.77518534039098, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 52, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 51, "positive_rate": 17.6, "median_return": 0.0, "bar_width": 0.0, "average_return": -3.66, "best_return": 6.53, "worst_return": -23.74 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 43, "positive_rate": 4.7, "median_return": -2.4, "bar_width": 12.0, "average_return": -11.95, "best_return": 20.87, "worst_return": -45.06 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 38, "positive_rate": 36.8, "median_return": -13.67, "bar_width": 68.35, "average_return": 12.94, "best_return": 140.24, "worst_return": -68.06 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "triggered", "label": "Triggered", "now": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is rising stack.", "next": "A weekly close through 16.10, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 17.95; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 24, "constructive_count": 16, "constructive_percent": 67, "rising_cycle_count": 15, "rising_cycle_percent": 62, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 166, "positive_rate": 48.8, "median_return": -0.1, "average_return": 0.54, "median_excess_return": -0.65, "excess_observations": 166, "p10": -8.69, "p90": 10.54 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 94, "positive_rate": 45.7, "median_return": -0.71, "average_return": 0.74, "median_excess_return": -5.1, "excess_observations": 94, "p10": -16.85, "p90": 13.28 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 80, "positive_rate": 47.5, "median_return": -1.79, "average_return": 3.55, "median_excess_return": -13.7, "excess_observations": 80, "p10": -27.65, "p90": 32.19 } ], "benchmark": "^TWII", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 7.164185074626867, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 25, "label": "Contained", "tone": "contained", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 0.8% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 16% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 11, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 73, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 4, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 25, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 25/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 10, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 96, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has low recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling.", "The primary interpretation has low recent stability." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down." } }, "chart": { "dates": [ "2023-08-11", "2023-08-18", "2023-08-25", "2023-09-01", "2023-09-08", "2023-09-15", "2023-09-22", "2023-09-29", "2023-10-06", "2023-10-13", "2023-10-20", "2023-10-27", "2023-11-03", "2023-11-10", "2023-11-17", "2023-11-24", "2023-12-01", "2023-12-08", "2023-12-15", "2023-12-22", "2023-12-29", "2024-01-05", "2024-01-12", "2024-01-19", "2024-01-26", "2024-02-02", "2024-02-09", "2024-02-16", "2024-02-23", "2024-03-01", "2024-03-08", "2024-03-15", "2024-03-22", "2024-03-29", "2024-04-05", "2024-04-12", "2024-04-19", "2024-04-26", "2024-05-03", "2024-05-10", "2024-05-17", "2024-05-24", "2024-05-31", "2024-06-07", "2024-06-14", "2024-06-21", "2024-06-28", "2024-07-05", "2024-07-12", "2024-07-19", "2024-07-26", "2024-08-02", "2024-08-09", "2024-08-16", "2024-08-23", "2024-08-30", "2024-09-06", "2024-09-13", "2024-09-20", 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