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true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 19.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 30.240964978615807, "weeks": 13, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 19.070152, "confirmation": 14.588344, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 11 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "strategic-bearish-wave4", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave4", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 4 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 80, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 42.83; Wave 2 23.46.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 20.25; Wave 3 14.59.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 20.25; Wave 4 19.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 14% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.39\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 50% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 10w; Wave 4 lasted 13w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 171, "date": "2024-08-02", "price": 42.833519, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 9.39358283509242, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 206, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 20.252804, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -52.71739405767712, "weeks": 35, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 216, "date": "2025-06-20", "price": 23.457668, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 15.824297712060021, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 262, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 14.588344, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -37.80991358561304, "weeks": 46, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 19.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 30.240964978615807, "weeks": 13, "confirmed": false, "label": "4" } ], "invalidation": 23.457668, "confirmation": 14.588344, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 71 }, { "id": "strategic-bearish-wave2", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 23.46; Wave 2 19.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 50% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 216, "date": "2025-06-20", "price": 23.457668, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 15.824297712060021, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 262, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 14.588344, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -37.80991358561304, "weeks": 46, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 19.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 30.240964978615807, "weeks": 13, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 23.457668, "confirmation": 14.588344, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 17 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 8.878953763796762, "primary": { "id": "strategic-bearish-wave4", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave4", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 4 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 80, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 42.83; Wave 2 23.46.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 20.25; Wave 3 14.59.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 20.25; Wave 4 19.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 14% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.39\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 50% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 10w; Wave 4 lasted 13w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 171, "date": "2024-08-02", "price": 42.833519, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 9.39358283509242, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 206, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 20.252804, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -52.71739405767712, "weeks": 35, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 216, "date": "2025-06-20", "price": 23.457668, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 15.824297712060021, "weeks": 10, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 262, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 14.588344, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -37.80991358561304, "weeks": 46, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 19.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 30.240964978615807, "weeks": 13, "confirmed": false, "label": "4" } ], "invalidation": 23.457668, "confirmation": 14.588344, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 71 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.9% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 5.549346102372976, "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 19.07; Wave 2 19.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 98% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 241, "date": "2025-12-12", "price": 19.070152, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.6321897592759775, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 262, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 14.588344, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -23.50168997079835, "weeks": 21, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 19.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 30.240964978615807, "weeks": 13, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 19.070152, "confirmation": 14.588344, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 11 }, "candidate_count": 1, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 3.8845422716610827, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.9% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 84, "changes": 1, "observations": 9, "label": "High" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "cycle_rollover", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "confidence": 34, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "labels": [ { "index": 241, "date": "2025-12-12", "price": 19.070152, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.6321897592759775, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 262, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 14.588344, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -23.50168997079835, "weeks": 21, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 19.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 30.240964978615807, "weeks": 13, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "notes": [ "Evidence is mixed; treat the count as a scenario rather than a signal." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": 16.65515771439638, "fair_value_gap": -37.400751362307915, "market_activity": 83.262797, "market_dynamics": 1.767837, "relative_strength": -23.740535, "roc30": 14.293097791700944, "hurst_alignment": 100, "hurst_risk": 0 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as possible bearish wave 2 crest. Price is 16.7% above its 30-week trend. 6 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": 15.853658536585375 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": 30.240964978615807 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 15.983829168272635 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": -13.840588855135064 } ], "range": { "high_52": 21.809815, "low_52": 14.442944, "position_52": 61.85877287657134, "drawdown": -12.883259211506381 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 16.917906226275196, "average_weekly_range": 7.436766189137158, "active_drawdown": -71.82052671440023 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 262, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 14.588344, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -23.50168997079835, "weeks": 21, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": { "index": 241, "date": "2025-12-12", "price": 19.070152, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.6321897592759775, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": { "index": 241, "date": "2025-12-12", "price": 19.070152, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.6321897592759775, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above", "trend": 16.287321, "fair_value": 30.351802, "trend_gap": 16.65515771439638, "fair_value_gap": -37.400751362307915 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 262, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 14.588344, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -23.50168997079835, "weeks": 21, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 19.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 30.240964978615807, "weeks": 13, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 30.240964978615807, "weeks": 13, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "16.7% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "positive", "value": "Rising", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "positive", "value": "Rising Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are improving together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "negative", "value": "-23.7", "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "positive", "value": "+83.3", "explanation": "Participation is supportive" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "positive", "value": "+1.8", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "positive", "value": "+14.3", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive" } ], "positive": 6, "negative": 1, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 86, "direction": "constructive", "scenario_direction": "bearish" }, "evidence": { "score": 100, "history_score": 100, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 276, "confirmed_pivots": 26 }, "volume_ratio": 334.71998000627565, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 28, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 27, "positive_rate": 59.3, "median_return": 1.72, "bar_width": 8.6, "average_return": 3.28, "best_return": 21.31, "worst_return": -11.1 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 27, "positive_rate": 48.1, "median_return": -0.18, "bar_width": 0.8999999999999999, "average_return": 7.36, "best_return": 39.12, "worst_return": -20.91 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 27, "positive_rate": 59.3, "median_return": 15.03, "bar_width": 75.14999999999999, "average_return": 8.05, "best_return": 31.33, "worst_return": -23.19 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "setup", "label": "Setup in timing window", "now": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is rising stack.", "next": "A weekly close through 14.59, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 19.07; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 24, "constructive_count": 16, "constructive_percent": 67, "rising_cycle_count": 15, "rising_cycle_percent": 62, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 601, "positive_rate": 47.6, "median_return": -0.41, "average_return": 1.41, "median_excess_return": -1.71, "excess_observations": 601, "p10": -8.71, "p90": 14.2 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 229, "positive_rate": 49.3, "median_return": 0.0, "average_return": 4.45, "median_excess_return": -4.97, "excess_observations": 229, "p10": -17.12, "p90": 27.78 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 134, "positive_rate": 50.7, "median_return": 0.43, "average_return": 5.91, "median_excess_return": -6.99, "excess_observations": 134, "p10": -24.3, "p90": 32.81 } ], "benchmark": "^TWII", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 0.36922105263158006, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 19, "label": "Contained", "tone": "contained", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 17, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 83, "explanation": "Price is 16.7% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 62% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is rising." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 0/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 2, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 16, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has high recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "Price is 16.7% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down." } }, "chart": { "dates": [ "2023-08-11", "2023-08-18", "2023-08-25", "2023-09-01", "2023-09-08", "2023-09-15", "2023-09-22", "2023-09-29", "2023-10-06", "2023-10-13", "2023-10-20", "2023-10-27", "2023-11-03", "2023-11-10", "2023-11-17", "2023-11-24", "2023-12-01", "2023-12-08", "2023-12-15", "2023-12-22", "2023-12-29", "2024-01-05", "2024-01-12", "2024-01-19", "2024-01-26", "2024-02-02", "2024-02-09", "2024-02-16", "2024-02-23", "2024-03-01", "2024-03-08", "2024-03-15", "2024-03-22", "2024-03-29", "2024-04-05", "2024-04-12", "2024-04-19", "2024-04-26", "2024-05-03", "2024-05-10", "2024-05-17", "2024-05-24", "2024-05-31", "2024-06-07", "2024-06-14", "2024-06-21", "2024-06-28", "2024-07-05", "2024-07-12", "2024-07-19", "2024-07-26", "2024-08-02", "2024-08-09", "2024-08-16", "2024-08-23", "2024-08-30", "2024-09-06", "2024-09-13", "2024-09-20", 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