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    ]
  },
  "structure": {
    "primary": {
      "id": "primary-bullish-wave5",
      "degree": "primary",
      "pattern": "impulse",
      "stage": "wave5",
      "title": "Five-wave advance mature",
      "direction": "bullish",
      "score": 95,
      "rules": [
        {
          "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Origin 21.86; Wave 2 22.43.",
          "hard": true
        },
        {
          "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Wave 1 25.88; Wave 3 54.75.",
          "hard": true
        },
        {
          "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 25.88; Wave 4 44.25.",
          "hard": true
        },
        {
          "label": "Wave 3 is not the shortest motive wave",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Motive lengths: 4.03, 32.32, 31.00.",
          "hard": true
        },
        {
          "label": "Wave 5 makes motive progress",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Wave 3 54.75; Wave 5 75.25.",
          "hard": false
        }
      ],
      "guidelines": [
        {
          "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Retraced 86% of Wave 1.",
          "hard": false
        },
        {
          "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible",
          "passed": false,
          "detail": "Wave 3 is 8.03\u00d7 Wave 1.",
          "hard": false
        },
        {
          "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Retraced 32% of Wave 3.",
          "hard": false
        },
        {
          "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 3w; Wave 4 lasted 5w.",
          "hard": false
        }
      ],
      "labels": [
        {
          "index": 191,
          "date": "2025-02-28",
          "price": 21.856668,
          "kind": "low",
          "move_percent": -56.92027541956213,
          "weeks": 34,
          "confirmed": true,
          "label": "0"
        },
        {
          "index": 194,
          "date": "2025-03-21",
          "price": 25.882896,
          "kind": "high",
          "move_percent": 18.421051186759115,
          "weeks": 3,
          "confirmed": true,
          "label": "1"
        },
        {
          "index": 197,
          "date": "2025-04-11",
          "price": 22.431843,
          "kind": "low",
          "move_percent": -13.333334106044386,
          "weeks": 3,
          "confirmed": true,
          "label": "2"
        },
        {
          "index": 243,
          "date": "2026-02-27",
          "price": 54.75,
          "kind": "high",
          "move_percent": 144.07267829041064,
          "weeks": 46,
          "confirmed": true,
          "label": "3"
        },
        {
          "index": 248,
          "date": "2026-04-03",
          "price": 44.25,
          "kind": "low",
          "move_percent": -19.17808219178082,
          "weeks": 5,
          "confirmed": true,
          "label": "4"
        },
        {
          "index": 275,
          "date": "2026-10-09",
          "price": 75.25,
          "kind": "high",
          "move_percent": 70.05649717514125,
          "weeks": 27,
          "confirmed": false,
          "label": "5"
        }
      ],
      "invalidation": 44.25,
      "confirmation": 75.25,
      "forming": true,
      "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
      "evidence_weight": 73
    },
    "alternates": [
      {
        "id": "primary-bearish-abc",
        "degree": "primary",
        "pattern": "correction",
        "stage": "wave_c",
        "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing",
        "direction": "bearish",
        "score": 76,
        "rules": [
          {
            "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Origin 22.43; Wave B 44.25.",
            "hard": true
          },
          {
            "label": "Wave C moves in the direction of Wave A",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "A length 32.32; C length 31.00.",
            "hard": true
          }
        ],
        "guidelines": [
          {
            "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Wave C is 0.96\u00d7 Wave A.",
            "hard": false
          }
        ],
        "labels": [
          {
            "index": 197,
            "date": "2025-04-11",
            "price": 22.431843,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -13.333334106044386,
            "weeks": 3,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "5"
          },
          {
            "index": 243,
            "date": "2026-02-27",
            "price": 54.75,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 144.07267829041064,
            "weeks": 46,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "A"
          },
          {
            "index": 248,
            "date": "2026-04-03",
            "price": 44.25,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -19.17808219178082,
            "weeks": 5,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "B"
          },
          {
            "index": 275,
            "date": "2026-10-09",
            "price": 75.25,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 70.05649717514125,
            "weeks": 27,
            "confirmed": false,
            "label": "C"
          }
        ],
        "invalidation": 75.25,
        "confirmation": 44.25,
        "forming": true,
        "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.",
        "evidence_weight": 15
      },
      {
        "id": "primary-bullish-wave3",
        "degree": "primary",
        "pattern": "impulse",
        "stage": "wave3",
        "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing",
        "direction": "bullish",
        "score": 74,
        "rules": [
          {
            "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Origin 22.43; Wave 2 44.25.",
            "hard": true
          },
          {
            "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Wave 1 54.75; Wave 3 75.25.",
            "hard": true
          }
        ],
        "guidelines": [
          {
            "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Retraced 32% of Wave 1.",
            "hard": false
          },
          {
            "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.96\u00d7 Wave 1.",
            "hard": false
          }
        ],
        "labels": [
          {
            "index": 197,
            "date": "2025-04-11",
            "price": 22.431843,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -13.333334106044386,
            "weeks": 3,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "0"
          },
          {
            "index": 243,
            "date": "2026-02-27",
            "price": 54.75,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 144.07267829041064,
            "weeks": 46,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "1"
          },
          {
            "index": 248,
            "date": "2026-04-03",
            "price": 44.25,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -19.17808219178082,
            "weeks": 5,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "2"
          },
          {
            "index": 275,
            "date": "2026-10-09",
            "price": 75.25,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 70.05649717514125,
            "weeks": 27,
            "confirmed": false,
            "label": "3"
          }
        ],
        "invalidation": 44.25,
        "confirmation": 75.25,
        "forming": true,
        "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
        "evidence_weight": 13
      }
    ],
    "degrees": [
      {
        "key": "strategic",
        "label": "Strategic",
        "reversal_percent": 18.893209116797447,
        "primary": {
          "id": "strategic-bearish-abc",
          "degree": "strategic",
          "pattern": "correction",
          "stage": "wave_c",
          "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing",
          "direction": "bearish",
          "score": 75,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 21.86; Wave B 44.25.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave C moves in the direction of Wave A",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "A length 32.89; C length 31.00.",
              "hard": true
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave C is 0.94\u00d7 Wave A.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 191,
              "date": "2025-02-28",
              "price": 21.856668,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -35.25355268089378,
              "weeks": 11,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "5"
            },
            {
              "index": 243,
              "date": "2026-02-27",
              "price": 54.75,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 150.49563821896368,
              "weeks": 52,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "A"
            },
            {
              "index": 248,
              "date": "2026-04-03",
              "price": 44.25,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -19.17808219178082,
              "weeks": 5,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "B"
            },
            {
              "index": 275,
              "date": "2026-10-09",
              "price": 75.25,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 70.05649717514125,
              "weeks": 27,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "C"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 75.25,
          "confirmation": 44.25,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent."
        },
        "candidate_count": 2,
        "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 18.9% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "primary",
        "label": "Primary",
        "reversal_percent": 11.808255697998403,
        "primary": {
          "id": "primary-bullish-wave5",
          "degree": "primary",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave5",
          "title": "Five-wave advance mature",
          "direction": "bullish",
          "score": 95,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 21.86; Wave 2 22.43.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 1 25.88; Wave 3 54.75.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 25.88; Wave 4 44.25.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 is not the shortest motive wave",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Motive lengths: 4.03, 32.32, 31.00.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 5 makes motive progress",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 3 54.75; Wave 5 75.25.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 86% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible",
              "passed": false,
              "detail": "Wave 3 is 8.03\u00d7 Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 32% of Wave 3.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 3w; Wave 4 lasted 5w.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 191,
              "date": "2025-02-28",
              "price": 21.856668,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -56.92027541956213,
              "weeks": 34,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 194,
              "date": "2025-03-21",
              "price": 25.882896,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 18.421051186759115,
              "weeks": 3,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 197,
              "date": "2025-04-11",
              "price": 22.431843,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -13.333334106044386,
              "weeks": 3,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "2"
            },
            {
              "index": 243,
              "date": "2026-02-27",
              "price": 54.75,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 144.07267829041064,
              "weeks": 46,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "3"
            },
            {
              "index": 248,
              "date": "2026-04-03",
              "price": 44.25,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -19.17808219178082,
              "weeks": 5,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "4"
            },
            {
              "index": 275,
              "date": "2026-10-09",
              "price": 75.25,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 70.05649717514125,
              "weeks": 27,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "5"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 44.25,
          "confirmation": 75.25,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
          "evidence_weight": 73
        },
        "candidate_count": 3,
        "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 11.8% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "tactical",
        "label": "Tactical",
        "reversal_percent": 8.265778988598882,
        "primary": {
          "id": "tactical-bullish-wave5",
          "degree": "tactical",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave5",
          "title": "Five-wave advance mature",
          "direction": "bullish",
          "score": 95,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 25.64; Wave 2 33.14.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 1 36.33; Wave 3 54.75.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 36.33; Wave 4 44.25.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 is not the shortest motive wave",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Motive lengths: 10.69, 21.61, 31.00.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 5 makes motive progress",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 3 54.75; Wave 5 75.25.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 30% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 3 is 2.02\u00d7 Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 49% of Wave 3.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 4w; Wave 4 lasted 5w.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 208,
              "date": "2025-06-27",
              "price": 25.64324,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -10.084032405351127,
              "weeks": 4,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 220,
              "date": "2025-09-19",
              "price": 36.330318,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 41.676005060202996,
              "weeks": 12,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 224,
              "date": "2025-10-17",
              "price": 33.139141,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -8.783784936867319,
              "weeks": 4,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "2"
            },
            {
              "index": 243,
              "date": "2026-02-27",
              "price": 54.75,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 65.21248996767899,
              "weeks": 19,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "3"
            },
            {
              "index": 248,
              "date": "2026-04-03",
              "price": 44.25,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -19.17808219178082,
              "weeks": 5,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "4"
            },
            {
              "index": 275,
              "date": "2026-10-09",
              "price": 75.25,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 70.05649717514125,
              "weeks": 27,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "5"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 44.25,
          "confirmation": 75.25,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements."
        },
        "candidate_count": 3,
        "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 8.3% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      }
    ],
    "stability": {
      "score": 100,
      "changes": 0,
      "observations": 9,
      "label": "High"
    },
    "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration",
    "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities."
  },
  "scenario": {
    "setup": "wave5_risk",
    "title": "Five-wave advance mature",
    "direction": "risk",
    "confidence": 55,
    "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.",
    "candidate_id": "primary-bullish-wave5",
    "labels": [
      {
        "index": 191,
        "date": "2025-02-28",
        "price": 21.856668,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -56.92027541956213,
        "weeks": 34,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "0"
      },
      {
        "index": 194,
        "date": "2025-03-21",
        "price": 25.882896,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 18.421051186759115,
        "weeks": 3,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "1"
      },
      {
        "index": 197,
        "date": "2025-04-11",
        "price": 22.431843,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -13.333334106044386,
        "weeks": 3,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "2"
      },
      {
        "index": 243,
        "date": "2026-02-27",
        "price": 54.75,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 144.07267829041064,
        "weeks": 46,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "3"
      },
      {
        "index": 248,
        "date": "2026-04-03",
        "price": 44.25,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -19.17808219178082,
        "weeks": 5,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "4"
      },
      {
        "index": 275,
        "date": "2026-10-09",
        "price": 75.25,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 70.05649717514125,
        "weeks": 27,
        "confirmed": false,
        "label": "5"
      }
    ],
    "notes": [
      "Evidence is mixed; treat the count as a scenario rather than a signal."
    ],
    "metrics": {
      "trend_gap": 37.06376519645545,
      "fair_value_gap": 79.77885218238747,
      "market_activity": 91.094806,
      "market_dynamics": 1.253283,
      "relative_strength": 44.634502,
      "roc30": 55.95854922279793,
      "hurst_alignment": 100,
      "hurst_risk": 0
    }
  },
  "detail": {
    "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as five-wave advance mature. Price is 37.1% above its 30-week trend. 7 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.",
    "returns": [
      {
        "weeks": 4,
        "label": "4-week return",
        "value": 12.313432835820896
      },
      {
        "weeks": 13,
        "label": "13-week return",
        "value": 50.5
      },
      {
        "weeks": 26,
        "label": "26-week return",
        "value": 60.1063829787234
      },
      {
        "weeks": 52,
        "label": "52-week return",
        "value": 125.40321489984446
      }
    ],
    "range": {
      "high_52": 79.0,
      "low_52": 32.402713,
      "position_52": 91.95232117268974,
      "drawdown": -4.746835443037975
    },
    "risk": {
      "annualised_volatility": 41.09497125089234,
      "average_weekly_range": 6.388705183201253,
      "active_drawdown": 0.0
    },
    "levels": {
      "support": {
        "index": 248,
        "date": "2026-04-03",
        "price": 44.25,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -19.17808219178082,
        "weeks": 5,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "resistance": null,
      "decisive": null,
      "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above",
      "trend": 54.901454,
      "fair_value": 41.856981,
      "trend_gap": 37.06376519645545,
      "fair_value_gap": 79.77885218238747
    },
    "active_swing": {
      "from": {
        "index": 248,
        "date": "2026-04-03",
        "price": 44.25,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -19.17808219178082,
        "weeks": 5,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "to": {
        "index": 275,
        "date": "2026-10-09",
        "price": 75.25,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 70.05649717514125,
        "weeks": 27,
        "confirmed": false
      },
      "move_percent": 70.05649717514125,
      "weeks": 27,
      "status": "Forming"
    },
    "confirmation": {
      "rows": [
        {
          "label": "Trend",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "37.1% above trend",
          "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle pressure",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "Rising",
          "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle alignment",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "Rising Stack",
          "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are improving together."
        },
        {
          "label": "Relative strength",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+44.6",
          "explanation": "Outperforming its benchmark"
        },
        {
          "label": "Market activity",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+91.1",
          "explanation": "Participation is supportive"
        },
        {
          "label": "Market dynamics",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+1.3",
          "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive"
        },
        {
          "label": "30-week momentum",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+56.0",
          "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive"
        }
      ],
      "positive": 7,
      "negative": 0,
      "neutral": 0,
      "observed": 7,
      "agreement": 100,
      "direction": "constructive",
      "scenario_direction": "risk"
    },
    "evidence": {
      "score": 100,
      "history_score": 100,
      "indicator_coverage": 100,
      "structure_score": 100,
      "weekly_observations": 276,
      "confirmed_pivots": 16
    },
    "volume_ratio": 203.57705334598225,
    "historical": {
      "available": true,
      "matches": 95,
      "horizons": [
        {
          "weeks": 4,
          "observations": 94,
          "positive_rate": 43.6,
          "median_return": -0.79,
          "bar_width": 3.95,
          "average_return": 0.95,
          "best_return": 30.43,
          "worst_return": -12.77
        },
        {
          "weeks": 13,
          "observations": 85,
          "positive_rate": 47.1,
          "median_return": -0.6,
          "bar_width": 3.0,
          "average_return": 2.98,
          "best_return": 59.31,
          "worst_return": -27.24
        },
        {
          "weeks": 26,
          "observations": 84,
          "positive_rate": 57.1,
          "median_return": 4.72,
          "bar_width": 23.599999999999998,
          "average_return": 10.92,
          "best_return": 78.48,
          "worst_return": -53.91
        }
      ],
      "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast."
    },
    "lifecycle": {
      "state": "mature",
      "label": "Mature / manage risk",
      "now": "Five-wave advance mature is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is rising stack.",
      "next": "Watch for a confirmed weekly reversal, cycle rollover, or deterioration in relative strength and participation; a mature count is a risk-management state, not a fresh bullish trigger.",
      "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 44.25; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.",
      "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.",
      "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation."
    },
    "peer_evidence": {
      "available": true,
      "peers": 18,
      "constructive_count": 13,
      "constructive_percent": 72,
      "rising_cycle_count": 7,
      "rising_cycle_percent": 39,
      "horizons": [
        {
          "weeks": 4,
          "observations": 363,
          "positive_rate": 46.3,
          "median_return": 0.0,
          "average_return": 1.93,
          "median_excess_return": -0.63,
          "excess_observations": 363,
          "p10": -9.52,
          "p90": 12.36
        },
        {
          "weeks": 13,
          "observations": 138,
          "positive_rate": 45.7,
          "median_return": -0.25,
          "average_return": 3.3,
          "median_excess_return": -0.39,
          "excess_observations": 138,
          "p10": -15.54,
          "p90": 25.5
        },
        {
          "weeks": 26,
          "observations": 86,
          "positive_rate": 47.7,
          "median_return": -2.01,
          "average_return": 4.41,
          "median_excess_return": -2.44,
          "excess_observations": 86,
          "p10": -26.23,
          "p90": 32.55
        }
      ],
      "benchmark": "^SET.BK",
      "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count."
    },
    "event_positioning": {
      "earnings_date": "2026-11-16",
      "earnings_weeks": 6,
      "options_available": false,
      "options_direction": null,
      "options_conviction": null,
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      "collision": false,
      "flags": [],
      "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure."
    },
    "downside_vulnerability": {
      "score": 55,
      "label": "Elevated vulnerability",
      "tone": "elevated",
      "components": [
        {
          "key": "wave",
          "label": "Wave maturity",
          "score": 25,
          "maximum": 25,
          "bar_width": 100,
          "explanation": "A forming Wave 5 is mature structure: upside can continue, but reward-to-risk is usually less forgiving."
        },
        {
          "key": "extension",
          "label": "Trend extension",
          "score": 20,
          "maximum": 20,
          "bar_width": 100,
          "explanation": "Price is 37.1% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability."
        },
        {
          "key": "range",
          "label": "Range position",
          "score": 10,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 68,
          "explanation": "Price is 92% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range."
        },
        {
          "key": "cycle",
          "label": "Cycle rollover",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is rising."
        },
        {
          "key": "hurst",
          "label": "Multi-cycle risk",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 0/100."
        },
        {
          "key": "stability",
          "label": "Count instability",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "The primary interpretation has high recent stability."
        },
        {
          "key": "event",
          "label": "Event proximity",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Earnings are about 6 week(s) away."
        }
      ],
      "warnings": [
        "A forming Wave 5 is mature structure: upside can continue, but reward-to-risk is usually less forgiving.",
        "Price is 37.1% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability.",
        "Price is 92% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range."
      ],
      "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down."
    }
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