{
  "ticker": {
    "symbol": "IBIT",
    "name": "iShares Bitcoin ETF",
    "exchange": "ASX"
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  "latest_week": "2026-08-07",
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  "latest_open": 17.15,
  "latest_high": 17.639999,
  "latest_low": 16.92,
  "bar_count": 36,
  "analysis_bar_count": 36,
  "reversal_percent": 8.62919599040426,
  "model": {
    "version": "ewc-2.1.0",
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "price_basis": "weekly OHLCV; Elliott pivots use weekly closes",
    "wave_method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration",
    "cycle_method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation",
    "repainting_policy": "only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained"
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  "pivots": [
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      "index": 7,
      "date": "2026-01-23",
      "price": 24.950001,
      "kind": "high",
      "move_percent": null,
      "weeks": 0,
      "confirmed": true
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    {
      "index": 9,
      "date": "2026-02-06",
      "price": 17.780001,
      "kind": "low",
      "move_percent": -28.737473798097252,
      "weeks": 2,
      "confirmed": true
    },
    {
      "index": 23,
      "date": "2026-05-15",
      "price": 21.290001,
      "kind": "high",
      "move_percent": 19.741281229399267,
      "weeks": 14,
      "confirmed": true
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    {
      "index": 26,
      "date": "2026-06-05",
      "price": 16.790001,
      "kind": "low",
      "move_percent": -21.136682896351203,
      "weeks": 3,
      "confirmed": true
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    {
      "index": 35,
      "date": "2026-08-07",
      "price": 17.34,
      "kind": "high",
      "move_percent": 3.275753229556089,
      "weeks": 9,
      "confirmed": false
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  "cycle": {
    "phase": "troughing",
    "trend_bias": "bearish",
    "oscillator": -6.921023716740651,
    "slope": 3.411310002501592,
    "dominant_period_weeks": 16,
    "period_basis": "median confirmed trough-to-trough and crest-to-crest spacing",
    "weeks_since_turn": 9,
    "estimated_weeks_to_next_turn": 0,
    "series": [
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        "date": "2025-12-05",
        "value": null
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        "date": "2025-12-12",
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        "date": "2025-12-19",
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      {
        "date": "2025-12-26",
        "value": 0.0
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      {
        "date": "2026-01-02",
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      {
        "date": "2026-01-09",
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        "date": "2026-01-16",
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        "date": "2026-01-23",
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        "value": 0.0
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        "date": "2026-02-06",
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        "date": "2026-02-13",
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      {
        "date": "2026-02-20",
        "value": 0.0
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        "date": "2026-02-27",
        "value": 0.0
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      {
        "date": "2026-03-06",
        "value": 0.0
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        "date": "2026-03-13",
        "value": 0.0
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      {
        "date": "2026-03-20",
        "value": 0.0
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        "date": "2026-03-27",
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        "date": "2026-04-10",
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        "date": "2026-04-17",
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        "date": "2026-04-24",
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        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "value": -3.6750452653568213
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "value": 0.07451314502692119
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        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "date": "2026-06-12",
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      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "value": -9.865219351457243
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      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "value": -12.352797853999988
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        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "value": -9.9834016926528
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        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "value": -7.961225696056296
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        "date": "2026-07-31",
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  "hurst": {
    "status": "mixed",
    "phase": "troughing",
    "alignment_score": 75,
    "risk_score": 25,
    "trough_alignment": 0,
    "crest_alignment": 0,
    "nearest_trough_window": 14,
    "nearest_crest_window": 19,
    "method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation",
    "explanation": "Nominal cycles are starting bands, not fixed clocks. Each period adapts to the strongest nearby repeat in detrended weekly prices; projected turns are future intervals and require price confirmation.",
    "cycles": [
      {
        "period": 10,
        "label": "10w",
        "estimated_period": 12,
        "period_range": [
          10,
          14
        ],
        "period_strength": 0,
        "phase": "rising",
        "value": -0.344120238622561,
        "slope": 0.5640554372596489,
        "amplitude": 8.468,
        "weeks_since_trough": 6,
        "weeks_since_crest": 12,
        "projected_trough_window": 6,
        "projected_crest_window": 12,
        "trough_window": {
          "start": 4,
          "midpoint": 6,
          "end": 8
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        "crest_window": {
          "start": 10,
          "midpoint": 12,
          "end": 14
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        "fld": {
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          "state": "crossed up",
          "weeks_since_cross": 3,
          "displacement": 6,
          "explanation": "Median price displaced forward by half the estimated wavelength; a price cross confirms a cyclic turn after it begins."
        },
        "vtl": {
          "available": true,
          "value": 15.004999500000002,
          "state": "price above",
          "slope": -0.18250008333333323,
          "explanation": "A provisional line through the latest two phased troughs; it is supporting evidence, not a standalone signal."
        },
        "trough_indexes": [
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          29
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            "date": "2025-12-05",
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            "value": -0.9829208159982996
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            "date": "2026-03-06",
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            "date": "2026-05-08",
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      {
        "period": 20,
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        "period_strength": 0,
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        "slope": 0.21642747690496444,
        "amplitude": 7.055,
        "weeks_since_trough": 6,
        "weeks_since_crest": 1,
        "projected_trough_window": 14,
        "projected_crest_window": 19,
        "trough_window": {
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          "midpoint": 14,
          "end": 19
        },
        "crest_window": {
          "start": 14,
          "midpoint": 19,
          "end": 24
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        "fld": {
          "value": 19.9749995,
          "state": "crossed down",
          "weeks_since_cross": 10,
          "displacement": 10,
          "explanation": "Median price displaced forward by half the estimated wavelength; a price cross confirms a cyclic turn after it begins."
        },
        "vtl": {
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            "date": "2026-07-24",
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            "date": "2026-07-31",
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      {
        "period": 40,
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        "estimated_period": 40,
        "period_range": [
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        "period_strength": 0,
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        "slope": 0.0,
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        "crest_window": null,
        "fld": {
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          "weeks_since_cross": null,
          "displacement": 20,
          "explanation": "Median price displaced forward by half the estimated wavelength; a price cross confirms a cyclic turn after it begins."
        },
        "vtl": {
          "available": false,
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          "state": "unavailable"
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      {
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          "displacement": 40,
          "explanation": "Median price displaced forward by half the estimated wavelength; a price cross confirms a cyclic turn after it begins."
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        "date": "2026-02-27",
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        "date": "2026-03-06",
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        "date": "2026-03-13",
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        "date": "2026-03-20",
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        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "value": -1.5963208108559013
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        "date": "2026-06-19",
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      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "value": -1.7265425280160003
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        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "date": "2026-07-10",
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      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "value": -1.0698520375757363
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        "date": "2026-07-24",
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        "date": "2026-07-31",
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    ]
  },
  "structure": {
    "primary": {
      "id": "primary-bearish-wave4",
      "degree": "primary",
      "pattern": "impulse",
      "stage": "wave4",
      "title": "Possible bearish Wave 4 crest",
      "direction": "bearish",
      "score": 80,
      "rules": [
        {
          "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Origin 24.95; Wave 2 21.29.",
          "hard": true
        },
        {
          "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Wave 1 17.78; Wave 3 16.79.",
          "hard": true
        },
        {
          "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 17.78; Wave 4 17.34.",
          "hard": true
        }
      ],
      "guidelines": [
        {
          "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Retraced 49% of Wave 1.",
          "hard": false
        },
        {
          "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible",
          "passed": false,
          "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.63\u00d7 Wave 1.",
          "hard": false
        },
        {
          "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate",
          "passed": false,
          "detail": "Retraced 12% of Wave 3.",
          "hard": false
        },
        {
          "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 14w; Wave 4 lasted 9w.",
          "hard": false
        }
      ],
      "labels": [
        {
          "index": 7,
          "date": "2026-01-23",
          "price": 24.950001,
          "kind": "high",
          "move_percent": null,
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          "confirmed": true,
          "label": "0"
        },
        {
          "index": 9,
          "date": "2026-02-06",
          "price": 17.780001,
          "kind": "low",
          "move_percent": -28.737473798097252,
          "weeks": 2,
          "confirmed": true,
          "label": "1"
        },
        {
          "index": 23,
          "date": "2026-05-15",
          "price": 21.290001,
          "kind": "high",
          "move_percent": 19.741281229399267,
          "weeks": 14,
          "confirmed": true,
          "label": "2"
        },
        {
          "index": 26,
          "date": "2026-06-05",
          "price": 16.790001,
          "kind": "low",
          "move_percent": -21.136682896351203,
          "weeks": 3,
          "confirmed": true,
          "label": "3"
        },
        {
          "index": 35,
          "date": "2026-08-07",
          "price": 17.34,
          "kind": "high",
          "move_percent": 3.275753229556089,
          "weeks": 9,
          "confirmed": false,
          "label": "4"
        }
      ],
      "invalidation": 21.290001,
      "confirmation": 16.790001,
      "forming": true,
      "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
      "evidence_weight": 22
    },
    "alternates": [
      {
        "id": "primary-bearish-wave2",
        "degree": "primary",
        "pattern": "impulse",
        "stage": "wave2",
        "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest",
        "direction": "bearish",
        "score": 58,
        "rules": [
          {
            "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Origin 21.29; Wave 2 17.34.",
            "hard": true
          }
        ],
        "guidelines": [
          {
            "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
            "passed": false,
            "detail": "Retraced 12% of Wave 1.",
            "hard": false
          }
        ],
        "labels": [
          {
            "index": 23,
            "date": "2026-05-15",
            "price": 21.290001,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 19.741281229399267,
            "weeks": 14,
            "confirmed": true,
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          {
            "index": 26,
            "date": "2026-06-05",
            "price": 16.790001,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -21.136682896351203,
            "weeks": 3,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "1"
          },
          {
            "index": 35,
            "date": "2026-08-07",
            "price": 17.34,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 3.275753229556089,
            "weeks": 9,
            "confirmed": false,
            "label": "2"
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        ],
        "invalidation": 21.290001,
        "confirmation": 16.790001,
        "forming": true,
        "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
        "evidence_weight": 3
      },
      {
        "id": "tactical-bearish-wave5",
        "degree": "tactical",
        "pattern": "impulse",
        "stage": "wave5",
        "title": "Five-wave decline mature",
        "direction": "bearish",
        "score": 95,
        "rules": [
          {
            "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Origin 27.00; Wave 2 21.29.",
            "hard": true
          },
          {
            "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Wave 1 17.78; Wave 3 16.45.",
            "hard": true
          },
          {
            "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 17.78; Wave 4 17.50.",
            "hard": true
          },
          {
            "label": "Wave 3 is not the shortest motive wave",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Motive lengths: 9.22, 4.84, 0.16.",
            "hard": true
          },
          {
            "label": "Wave 5 makes motive progress",
            "passed": false,
            "detail": "Wave 3 16.45; Wave 5 17.34.",
            "hard": false
          }
        ],
        "guidelines": [
          {
            "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Retraced 38% of Wave 1.",
            "hard": false
          },
          {
            "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible",
            "passed": false,
            "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.52\u00d7 Wave 1.",
            "hard": false
          },
          {
            "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Retraced 22% of Wave 3.",
            "hard": false
          },
          {
            "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 14w; Wave 4 lasted 2w.",
            "hard": false
          }
        ],
        "labels": [
          {
            "index": 6,
            "date": "2026-01-16",
            "price": 27.0,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": null,
            "weeks": 0,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "0"
          },
          {
            "index": 9,
            "date": "2026-02-06",
            "price": 17.780001,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -34.14814444444445,
            "weeks": 3,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "1"
          },
          {
            "index": 23,
            "date": "2026-05-15",
            "price": 21.290001,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 19.741281229399267,
            "weeks": 14,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "2"
          },
          {
            "index": 29,
            "date": "2026-06-26",
            "price": 16.450001,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -22.733676715186625,
            "weeks": 6,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "3"
          },
          {
            "index": 31,
            "date": "2026-07-10",
            "price": 17.5,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 6.382972256354268,
            "weeks": 2,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "4"
          },
          {
            "index": 35,
            "date": "2026-08-07",
            "price": 17.34,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -0.9142857142857151,
            "weeks": 4,
            "confirmed": false,
            "label": "5"
          }
        ],
        "invalidation": 17.5,
        "confirmation": 17.34,
        "forming": true,
        "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
        "evidence_weight": 75
      }
    ],
    "degrees": [
      {
        "key": "strategic",
        "label": "Strategic",
        "reversal_percent": 13.806713584646815,
        "primary": {
          "id": "strategic-bearish-wave4",
          "degree": "strategic",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave4",
          "title": "Possible bearish Wave 4 crest",
          "direction": "bearish",
          "score": 85,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 22.52; Wave 2 21.29.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 1 17.78; Wave 3 16.79.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 17.78; Wave 4 17.34.",
              "hard": true
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 74% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.95\u00d7 Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": false,
              "detail": "Retraced 12% of Wave 3.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 14w; Wave 4 lasted 9w.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 8,
              "date": "2026-01-30",
              "price": 22.52,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": null,
              "weeks": 0,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 9,
              "date": "2026-02-06",
              "price": 17.780001,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -21.047952930728247,
              "weeks": 1,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 23,
              "date": "2026-05-15",
              "price": 21.290001,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 19.741281229399267,
              "weeks": 14,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "2"
            },
            {
              "index": 26,
              "date": "2026-06-05",
              "price": 16.790001,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -21.136682896351203,
              "weeks": 3,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "3"
            },
            {
              "index": 35,
              "date": "2026-08-07",
              "price": 17.34,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 3.275753229556089,
              "weeks": 9,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "4"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 21.290001,
          "confirmation": 16.790001,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements."
        },
        "candidate_count": 2,
        "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 13.8% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "primary",
        "label": "Primary",
        "reversal_percent": 8.62919599040426,
        "primary": {
          "id": "primary-bearish-wave4",
          "degree": "primary",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave4",
          "title": "Possible bearish Wave 4 crest",
          "direction": "bearish",
          "score": 80,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 24.95; Wave 2 21.29.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 1 17.78; Wave 3 16.79.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 17.78; Wave 4 17.34.",
              "hard": true
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 49% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible",
              "passed": false,
              "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.63\u00d7 Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": false,
              "detail": "Retraced 12% of Wave 3.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 14w; Wave 4 lasted 9w.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 7,
              "date": "2026-01-23",
              "price": 24.950001,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": null,
              "weeks": 0,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 9,
              "date": "2026-02-06",
              "price": 17.780001,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -28.737473798097252,
              "weeks": 2,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 23,
              "date": "2026-05-15",
              "price": 21.290001,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 19.741281229399267,
              "weeks": 14,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "2"
            },
            {
              "index": 26,
              "date": "2026-06-05",
              "price": 16.790001,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -21.136682896351203,
              "weeks": 3,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "3"
            },
            {
              "index": 35,
              "date": "2026-08-07",
              "price": 17.34,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 3.275753229556089,
              "weeks": 9,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "4"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 21.290001,
          "confirmation": 16.790001,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
          "evidence_weight": 22
        },
        "candidate_count": 2,
        "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 8.6% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "tactical",
        "label": "Tactical",
        "reversal_percent": 6.0404371932829815,
        "primary": {
          "id": "tactical-bearish-wave5",
          "degree": "tactical",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave5",
          "title": "Five-wave decline mature",
          "direction": "bearish",
          "score": 95,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 27.00; Wave 2 21.29.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 1 17.78; Wave 3 16.45.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 17.78; Wave 4 17.50.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 is not the shortest motive wave",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Motive lengths: 9.22, 4.84, 0.16.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 5 makes motive progress",
              "passed": false,
              "detail": "Wave 3 16.45; Wave 5 17.34.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 38% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible",
              "passed": false,
              "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.52\u00d7 Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 22% of Wave 3.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 14w; Wave 4 lasted 2w.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 6,
              "date": "2026-01-16",
              "price": 27.0,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": null,
              "weeks": 0,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 9,
              "date": "2026-02-06",
              "price": 17.780001,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -34.14814444444445,
              "weeks": 3,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 23,
              "date": "2026-05-15",
              "price": 21.290001,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 19.741281229399267,
              "weeks": 14,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "2"
            },
            {
              "index": 29,
              "date": "2026-06-26",
              "price": 16.450001,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -22.733676715186625,
              "weeks": 6,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "3"
            },
            {
              "index": 31,
              "date": "2026-07-10",
              "price": 17.5,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 6.382972256354268,
              "weeks": 2,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "4"
            },
            {
              "index": 35,
              "date": "2026-08-07",
              "price": 17.34,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -0.9142857142857151,
              "weeks": 4,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "5"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 17.5,
          "confirmation": 17.34,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
          "evidence_weight": 75
        },
        "candidate_count": 3,
        "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 6.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      }
    ],
    "stability": {
      "score": 0,
      "changes": null,
      "observations": 0,
      "label": "Unavailable"
    },
    "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration",
    "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities."
  },
  "scenario": {
    "setup": "warming",
    "title": "Needs more weekly history",
    "direction": "neutral",
    "confidence": 20,
    "labels": [],
    "notes": [
      "At least 65 weekly bars gives the wave and cycle model enough context."
    ],
    "metrics": {}
  },
  "detail": {
    "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as needs more weekly history. Price is 9.5% below its 30-week trend. 1 of 6 available confirmation measures are constructive.",
    "returns": [
      {
        "weeks": 4,
        "label": "4-week return",
        "value": -0.9142857142857151
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      {
        "weeks": 13,
        "label": "13-week return",
        "value": -17.231507530715632
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      {
        "weeks": 26,
        "label": "26-week return",
        "value": -2.474696148779737
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      {
        "weeks": 52,
        "label": "52-week return",
        "value": null
      }
    ],
    "range": {
      "high_52": 27.75,
      "low_52": 16.1,
      "position_52": 10.643776824034322,
      "drawdown": -37.513513513513516
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    "risk": {
      "annualised_volatility": 29.13897042614826,
      "average_weekly_range": 3.03296150504548,
      "active_drawdown": -35.77777777777778
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    "levels": {
      "support": {
        "index": 26,
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "price": 16.790001,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -21.136682896351203,
        "weeks": 3,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "resistance": {
        "index": 23,
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "price": 21.290001,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 19.741281229399267,
        "weeks": 14,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "decisive": {
        "index": 26,
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "price": 16.790001,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -21.136682896351203,
        "weeks": 3,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "decisive_label": "Nearest confirmed structure level",
      "trend": 19.153334,
      "fair_value": 20.230278,
      "trend_gap": -9.46745877245184,
      "fair_value_gap": -14.286892152445946
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    "active_swing": {
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        "index": 26,
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "price": 16.790001,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -21.136682896351203,
        "weeks": 3,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "to": {
        "index": 35,
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "price": 17.34,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 3.275753229556089,
        "weeks": 9,
        "confirmed": false
      },
      "move_percent": 3.275753229556089,
      "weeks": 9,
      "status": "Forming"
    },
    "confirmation": {
      "rows": [
        {
          "label": "Trend",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "9.5% below trend",
          "explanation": "Price remains below its 30-week trend."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle pressure",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "Troughing",
          "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle alignment",
          "status": "neutral",
          "value": "Mixed",
          "explanation": "Cycle lengths are not moving in one clear direction."
        },
        {
          "label": "Relative strength",
          "status": "neutral",
          "value": "Unavailable",
          "explanation": "The reading is neutral or unavailable."
        },
        {
          "label": "Market activity",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "-45.9",
          "explanation": "Participation is weak"
        },
        {
          "label": "Market dynamics",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "-0.2",
          "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is weak"
        },
        {
          "label": "30-week momentum",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "-33.0",
          "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is negative"
        }
      ],
      "positive": 1,
      "negative": 4,
      "neutral": 1,
      "observed": 6,
      "agreement": 67,
      "direction": "defensive",
      "scenario_direction": "neutral"
    },
    "evidence": {
      "score": 33,
      "history_score": 14,
      "indicator_coverage": 32,
      "structure_score": 67,
      "weekly_observations": 36,
      "confirmed_pivots": 4
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    "volume_ratio": 142.60469539129605,
    "historical": {
      "available": false,
      "matches": 0,
      "horizons": [],
      "note": "At least 90 weekly observations are required."
    },
    "lifecycle": {
      "state": "watching",
      "label": "Watching",
      "now": "Possible bearish Wave 4 crest is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is mixed.",
      "next": "A weekly close through 16.79, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.",
      "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 21.29; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.",
      "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.",
      "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation."
    },
    "peer_evidence": {
      "available": true,
      "peers": 16,
      "constructive_count": 6,
      "constructive_percent": 38,
      "rising_cycle_count": 7,
      "rising_cycle_percent": 44,
      "horizons": [
        {
          "weeks": 4,
          "observations": 145,
          "positive_rate": 55.2,
          "median_return": 1.01,
          "average_return": 1.03,
          "median_excess_return": 0.23,
          "excess_observations": 145,
          "p10": -6.39,
          "p90": 7.59
        },
        {
          "weeks": 13,
          "observations": 62,
          "positive_rate": 71.0,
          "median_return": 1.78,
          "average_return": 3.34,
          "median_excess_return": 0.76,
          "excess_observations": 62,
          "p10": -7.72,
          "p90": 14.66
        },
        {
          "weeks": 26,
          "observations": 37,
          "positive_rate": 70.3,
          "median_return": 6.49,
          "average_return": 10.17,
          "median_excess_return": 2.4,
          "excess_observations": 37,
          "p10": -8.21,
          "p90": 27.88
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      "benchmark": "^AXJO",
      "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count."
    },
    "event_positioning": {
      "earnings_date": null,
      "earnings_weeks": null,
      "options_available": true,
      "options_direction": "bullish",
      "options_conviction": 36.34,
      "expected_move": 3.81593715,
      "invalidation_distance": 22.779705882352943,
      "collision": false,
      "flags": [
        "Stored options pressure is bullish with 36/100 conviction."
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      "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure."
    },
    "downside_vulnerability": {
      "score": 14,
      "label": "Contained",
      "tone": "contained",
      "components": [
        {
          "key": "wave",
          "label": "Wave maturity",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 25,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5."
        },
        {
          "key": "extension",
          "label": "Trend extension",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 20,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Price is 9.5% below the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability."
        },
        {
          "key": "range",
          "label": "Range position",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Price is 11% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range."
        },
        {
          "key": "cycle",
          "label": "Cycle rollover",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 0,
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        },
        {
          "key": "hurst",
          "label": "Multi-cycle risk",
          "score": 4,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 25,
          "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 25/100."
        },
        {
          "key": "stability",
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          "score": 10,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 100,
          "explanation": "The primary interpretation has unavailable recent stability."
        },
        {
          "key": "event",
          "label": "Event proximity",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available."
        }
      ],
      "warnings": [
        "The primary interpretation has unavailable recent stability."
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      "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down."
    }
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