{
  "ticker": {
    "symbol": "IG35",
    "name": "iShares iBonds Dec 2035 Term \u20ac Corp UCITS ETF (ACC)",
    "exchange": "GER"
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  "latest_week": "2026-07-24",
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  "latest_open": 5.0466,
  "latest_high": 5.0466,
  "latest_low": 4.9987,
  "bar_count": 33,
  "analysis_bar_count": 33,
  "reversal_percent": 5.0,
  "model": {
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    "as_of": "2026-07-24",
    "price_basis": "weekly OHLCV; Elliott pivots use weekly closes",
    "wave_method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration",
    "cycle_method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation",
    "repainting_policy": "only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained"
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      "price": 4.9855,
      "kind": "low",
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      "weeks": 0,
      "confirmed": true
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      "price": 5.01,
      "kind": "high",
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      "weeks": 32,
      "confirmed": false
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    "trend_bias": "bearish",
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    "alignment_score": 25,
    "risk_score": 75,
    "trough_alignment": 0,
    "crest_alignment": 0,
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    "method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation",
    "explanation": "Nominal cycles are starting bands, not fixed clocks. Each period adapts to the strongest nearby repeat in detrended weekly prices; projected turns are future intervals and require price confirmation.",
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          "displacement": 5,
          "explanation": "Median price displaced forward by half the estimated wavelength; a price cross confirms a cyclic turn after it begins."
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          "value": 5.0842,
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          "explanation": "A provisional line through the latest two phased troughs; it is supporting evidence, not a standalone signal."
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          "explanation": "Median price displaced forward by half the estimated wavelength; a price cross confirms a cyclic turn after it begins."
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        "value": -0.17516982625962307
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
        "value": 0.6339678840572112
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
        "value": -0.45019244349812537
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "value": 0.39903338468239347
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "value": -0.9990697705557491
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "value": -0.5049036397996856
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      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "value": 1.3495159166515882
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "value": 1.8889396024429954
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "value": 1.9506258331388076
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "value": 1.7176966945109111
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "value": 2.192247688674136
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "value": 2.242226913966503
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "value": 1.7812784728968785
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "value": 1.0605664503775147
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "value": 0.2956135647656327
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    ]
  },
  "structure": {
    "primary": null,
    "alternates": [],
    "degrees": [
      {
        "key": "strategic",
        "label": "Strategic",
        "reversal_percent": 8.0,
        "primary": null,
        "candidate_count": 0,
        "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "primary",
        "label": "Primary",
        "reversal_percent": 5.0,
        "primary": null,
        "candidate_count": 0,
        "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "tactical",
        "label": "Tactical",
        "reversal_percent": 3.5,
        "primary": null,
        "candidate_count": 0,
        "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      }
    ],
    "stability": {
      "score": 0,
      "changes": null,
      "observations": 0,
      "label": "Unavailable"
    },
    "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration",
    "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities."
  },
  "scenario": {
    "setup": "warming",
    "title": "Needs more weekly history",
    "direction": "neutral",
    "confidence": 20,
    "labels": [],
    "notes": [
      "At least 65 weekly bars gives the wave and cycle model enough context."
    ],
    "metrics": {}
  },
  "detail": {
    "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as needs more weekly history. Price is 0.4% below its 30-week trend. 3 of 6 available confirmation measures are constructive.",
    "returns": [
      {
        "weeks": 4,
        "label": "4-week return",
        "value": -1.8878270405765323
      },
      {
        "weeks": 13,
        "label": "13-week return",
        "value": -0.09571667863125866
      },
      {
        "weeks": 26,
        "label": "26-week return",
        "value": -0.25483793899817564
      },
      {
        "weeks": 52,
        "label": "52-week return",
        "value": null
      }
    ],
    "range": {
      "high_52": 5.1266,
      "low_52": 4.8815,
      "position_52": 52.42758057935533,
      "drawdown": -2.274411890921859
    },
    "risk": {
      "annualised_volatility": 5.3270054148195,
      "average_weekly_range": 0.8724125831617228,
      "active_drawdown": -1.8878270405765323
    },
    "levels": {
      "support": {
        "index": 0,
        "date": "2025-12-12",
        "price": 4.9855,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": null,
        "weeks": 0,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "resistance": null,
      "decisive": {
        "index": 0,
        "date": "2025-12-12",
        "price": 4.9855,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": null,
        "weeks": 0,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "decisive_label": "Nearest confirmed structure level",
      "trend": 5.029357,
      "fair_value": 5.025515,
      "trend_gap": -0.3848802143097078,
      "fair_value_gap": -0.30872457847604895
    },
    "active_swing": {
      "from": {
        "index": 0,
        "date": "2025-12-12",
        "price": 4.9855,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": null,
        "weeks": 0,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "to": {
        "index": 32,
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "price": 5.01,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 0.49142513288536244,
        "weeks": 32,
        "confirmed": false
      },
      "move_percent": 0.49142513288536244,
      "weeks": 32,
      "status": "Forming"
    },
    "confirmation": {
      "rows": [
        {
          "label": "Trend",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "0.4% below trend",
          "explanation": "Price remains below its 30-week trend."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle pressure",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "Falling",
          "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle alignment",
          "status": "neutral",
          "value": "Mixed",
          "explanation": "Cycle lengths are not moving in one clear direction."
        },
        {
          "label": "Relative strength",
          "status": "neutral",
          "value": "Unavailable",
          "explanation": "The reading is neutral or unavailable."
        },
        {
          "label": "Market activity",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+29.8",
          "explanation": "Participation is supportive"
        },
        {
          "label": "Market dynamics",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+0.5",
          "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive"
        },
        {
          "label": "30-week momentum",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+0.4",
          "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive"
        }
      ],
      "positive": 3,
      "negative": 2,
      "neutral": 1,
      "observed": 6,
      "agreement": 50,
      "direction": "constructive",
      "scenario_direction": "neutral"
    },
    "evidence": {
      "score": 25,
      "history_score": 13,
      "indicator_coverage": 38,
      "structure_score": 17,
      "weekly_observations": 33,
      "confirmed_pivots": 1
    },
    "volume_ratio": 82.31177094379639,
    "historical": {
      "available": false,
      "matches": 0,
      "horizons": [],
      "note": "At least 90 weekly observations are required."
    },
    "lifecycle": {
      "state": "observing",
      "label": "Observing",
      "now": "No rule-valid primary Elliott count is dominant.",
      "next": "Wait for a valid swing structure or a confirmed cycle turn.",
      "wrong": "No active thesis to invalidate.",
      "risk": "Forcing a wave count where the geometry does not support one."
    },
    "peer_evidence": {
      "available": true,
      "peers": 22,
      "constructive_count": 11,
      "constructive_percent": 50,
      "rising_cycle_count": 3,
      "rising_cycle_percent": 14,
      "horizons": [
        {
          "weeks": 4,
          "observations": 106,
          "positive_rate": 64.2,
          "median_return": 1.64,
          "average_return": 1.51,
          "median_excess_return": 0.1,
          "excess_observations": 106,
          "p10": -6.22,
          "p90": 7.93
        },
        {
          "weeks": 13,
          "observations": 77,
          "positive_rate": 84.4,
          "median_return": 3.69,
          "average_return": 5.64,
          "median_excess_return": 1.0,
          "excess_observations": 77,
          "p10": -1.63,
          "p90": 14.97
        },
        {
          "weeks": 26,
          "observations": 50,
          "positive_rate": 80.0,
          "median_return": 7.06,
          "average_return": 7.11,
          "median_excess_return": 1.06,
          "excess_observations": 50,
          "p10": -2.3,
          "p90": 17.34
        }
      ],
      "benchmark": "^GDAXI",
      "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count."
    },
    "event_positioning": {
      "earnings_date": null,
      "earnings_weeks": null,
      "options_available": false,
      "options_direction": null,
      "options_conviction": null,
      "expected_move": null,
      "invalidation_distance": null,
      "collision": false,
      "flags": [],
      "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure."
    },
    "downside_vulnerability": {
      "score": 32,
      "label": "Watch",
      "tone": "watch",
      "components": [
        {
          "key": "wave",
          "label": "Wave maturity",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 25,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5."
        },
        {
          "key": "extension",
          "label": "Trend extension",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 20,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Price is 0.4% below the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability."
        },
        {
          "key": "range",
          "label": "Range position",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Price is 52% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range."
        },
        {
          "key": "cycle",
          "label": "Cycle rollover",
          "score": 11,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 73,
          "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling."
        },
        {
          "key": "hurst",
          "label": "Multi-cycle risk",
          "score": 11,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 75,
          "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 75/100."
        },
        {
          "key": "stability",
          "label": "Count instability",
          "score": 10,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 100,
          "explanation": "The primary interpretation has unavailable recent stability."
        },
        {
          "key": "event",
          "label": "Event proximity",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available."
        }
      ],
      "warnings": [
        "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling.",
        "Hurst risk alignment is 75/100.",
        "The primary interpretation has unavailable recent stability."
      ],
      "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down."
    }
  },
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