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1.0018004695563265 }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": 1.1946300728746875 }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": 1.2882802473716157 }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": 1.3902648447558663 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": 1.4912923402600065 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": 1.4345505093356852 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": 1.3444092307602242 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": 1.2655803217799575 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": 1.0785848130310163 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": 1.0408527074381728 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": 1.0122863808787803 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": 0.8982546594251173 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": 0.7839869620589232 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": 0.7110311113262686 }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "value": 0.9037374398427453 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 71, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 5.09; Wave B 6.42.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 1.88; C length 1.30.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.69\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 53, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 5.0881, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.273290567138064, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 100, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 6.971, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 37.00595507163775, "weeks": 47, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 104, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 6.4232, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.858269975613262, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 123, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 7.724, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 20.25158799352349, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 7.724, "confirmation": 6.4232, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 54 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bullish-wave3", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 69, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 5.09; Wave 2 6.42.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 6.97; Wave 3 7.72.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 29% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.69\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 53, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 5.0881, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.273290567138064, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 100, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 6.971, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 37.00595507163775, "weeks": 47, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 104, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 6.4232, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.858269975613262, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 123, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 7.724, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 20.25158799352349, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 6.4232, "confirmation": 7.724, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 46 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 8.0, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 5.0, "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 71, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 5.09; Wave B 6.42.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 1.88; C length 1.30.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.69\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 53, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 5.0881, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.273290567138064, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 100, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 6.971, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 37.00595507163775, "weeks": 47, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 104, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 6.4232, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.858269975613262, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 123, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 7.724, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 20.25158799352349, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 7.724, "confirmation": 6.4232, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 54 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 3.5, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 100, "changes": 0, "observations": 9, "label": "High" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "cycle_rollover", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "confidence": 56, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bearish-abc", "labels": [ { "index": 53, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 5.0881, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.273290567138064, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 100, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 6.971, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 37.00595507163775, "weeks": 47, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 104, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 6.4232, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.858269975613262, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 123, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 7.724, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 20.25158799352349, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "notes": [ "Evidence is mixed; treat the count as a scenario rather than a signal." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": 8.453945756458554, "fair_value_gap": 26.523495055935538, "market_activity": 44.064644, "market_dynamics": 0.290131, "relative_strength": 0.030534, "roc30": 12.685097381282377, "hurst_alignment": 50, "hurst_risk": 50 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as bearish a/b/c rebound may be completing. Price is 8.5% above its 30-week trend. 5 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": 3.0278778177937884 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": 5.721324938406791 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 11.883654904687413 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 23.313696377540435 } ], "range": { "high_52": 7.728, "low_52": 6.264, "position_52": 99.72677595628419, "drawdown": -0.05175983436852432 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 13.317364416910522, "average_weekly_range": 1.3458371187909504, "active_drawdown": 0.0 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 104, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 6.4232, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.858269975613262, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": null, "decisive": null, "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above", "trend": 7.121917, "fair_value": 6.104795, "trend_gap": 8.453945756458554, "fair_value_gap": 26.523495055935538 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 104, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 6.4232, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.858269975613262, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 123, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 7.724, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 20.25158799352349, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 20.25158799352349, "weeks": 19, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "8.5% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "negative", "value": "Cresting", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "neutral", "value": "Mixed", "explanation": "Cycle lengths are not moving in one clear direction." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "positive", "value": "+0.0", "explanation": "Outperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "positive", "value": "+44.1", "explanation": "Participation is supportive" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "positive", "value": "+0.3", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "positive", "value": "+12.7", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive" } ], "positive": 5, "negative": 1, "neutral": 1, "observed": 7, "agreement": 71, "direction": "constructive", "scenario_direction": "bearish" }, "evidence": { "score": 75, "history_score": 48, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 67, "weekly_observations": 124, "confirmed_pivots": 4 }, "volume_ratio": 113.7476932065342, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 51, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 50, "positive_rate": 80.0, "median_return": 1.29, "bar_width": 6.45, "average_return": 1.07, "best_return": 6.17, "worst_return": -7.86 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 43, "positive_rate": 88.4, "median_return": 5.23, "bar_width": 26.150000000000002, "average_return": 4.76, "best_return": 10.4, "worst_return": -5.6 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 37, "positive_rate": 94.6, "median_return": 9.95, "bar_width": 49.75, "average_return": 9.17, "best_return": 14.81, "worst_return": -1.1 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "watching", "label": "Watching", "now": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is mixed.", "next": "A weekly close through 6.42, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 7.72; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 17, "constructive_count": 7, "constructive_percent": 41, "rising_cycle_count": 9, "rising_cycle_percent": 53, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 260, "positive_rate": 50.4, "median_return": 0.11, "average_return": -0.48, "median_excess_return": -0.51, "excess_observations": 260, "p10": -14.22, "p90": 9.57 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 96, "positive_rate": 55.2, "median_return": 1.53, "average_return": -1.35, "median_excess_return": -0.84, "excess_observations": 96, "p10": -31.75, "p90": 15.6 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 57, "positive_rate": 43.9, "median_return": 0.0, "average_return": -5.25, "median_excess_return": -4.94, "excess_observations": 57, "p10": -61.94, "p90": 24.04 } ], "benchmark": "^AEX", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 0.0, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 42, "label": "Watch", "tone": "watch", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 4, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 19, "explanation": "Price is 8.5% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 15, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 99, "explanation": "Price is 100% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 15, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 8, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 50, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 50/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has high recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "Price is 100% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range.", "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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