{ "ticker": { "symbol": "7724", "name": "U ARK", "exchange": "TWO" }, "latest_week": "2026-08-14", "latest_close": 15.0, "latest_open": 19.0, "latest_high": 19.6, "latest_low": 14.35, "bar_count": 103, "analysis_bar_count": 103, "reversal_percent": 9.238092665567246, "model": { "version": "ewc-2.1.0", "as_of": "2026-08-14", "price_basis": "weekly OHLCV; Elliott pivots use weekly closes", "wave_method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "cycle_method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation", "repainting_policy": "only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained" }, "pivots": [ { "index": 34, "date": "2025-04-18", "price": 20.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 35.13513513513512, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 39, "date": "2025-05-23", "price": 14.05, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -29.749999999999993, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 42, "date": 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"2025-11-07", "value": 0.34901810224989843 }, { "date": "2025-11-14", "value": 0.45628864154663495 }, { "date": "2025-11-21", "value": 0.5788941050786425 }, { "date": "2025-11-28", "value": 0.6609717319979067 }, { "date": "2025-12-05", "value": 0.7225966181981217 }, { "date": "2025-12-12", "value": 0.9311406607423457 }, { "date": "2025-12-19", "value": 1.0766951895463306 }, { "date": "2025-12-26", "value": 1.1599091120402345 }, { "date": "2026-01-02", "value": 1.1344234262109303 }, { "date": "2026-01-09", "value": 0.9162623736910828 }, { "date": "2026-01-16", "value": 0.7053565836524546 }, { "date": "2026-01-23", "value": 0.5883856679452599 }, { "date": "2026-01-30", "value": 0.4146263307546403 }, { "date": "2026-02-06", "value": 0.2909106566175861 }, { "date": "2026-02-13", "value": 0.24309537632605058 }, { "date": "2026-02-27", "value": 0.15314646440126128 }, { "date": "2026-03-06", "value": -0.3029276613824661 }, { "date": "2026-03-13", "value": -0.40826750113366306 }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "value": -0.4850109420310975 }, { "date": "2026-03-27", "value": -0.5416338097853648 }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "value": -0.5688031656937402 }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "value": -0.581069642255323 }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "value": -0.6653907973344946 }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": -0.7421592676378068 }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": -0.7997168220123368 }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": -0.7012012789281137 }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": -0.654851833524663 }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": -0.6300974578472462 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": -0.6619094824957626 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": -0.8321935410946337 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": -0.989598097352747 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": -1.2570677102778824 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": -1.4955887512580925 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": -1.5634167941868369 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": -1.5968766992559607 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": -1.6972222584156413 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": -1.9587355647820828 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": -2.0473790832542345 }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "value": -1.4730780551298248 }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "value": -1.5904274245666448 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 14.00; Wave 2 15.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 83% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 99, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 14.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -55.974841382856646, "weeks": 29, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 101, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 19.75, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 41.07142857142857, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 102, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 15.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -24.050632911392405, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 14.0, "confirmation": 19.75, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 38 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bullish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "A/B/C reset may be completing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 31.80; Wave B 19.75.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 17.80; C length 4.75.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave C is 0.27\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 70, "date": "2025-12-26", "price": 31.799999, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 27.710839357429727, "weeks": 17, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 99, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 14.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -55.974841382856646, "weeks": 29, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 101, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 19.75, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 41.07142857142857, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 102, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 15.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -24.050632911392405, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 15.0, "confirmation": 19.75, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 25 }, { "id": "strategic-bullish-wave2", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 14.00; Wave 2 15.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 83% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 99, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 14.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -55.974841382856646, "weeks": 29, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 101, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 19.75, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 41.07142857142857, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 102, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 15.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -24.050632911392405, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 14.0, "confirmation": 19.75, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 38 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 14.780948264907593, "primary": { "id": "strategic-bullish-wave2", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 14.00; Wave 2 15.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 83% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 99, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 14.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -55.974841382856646, "weeks": 29, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 101, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 19.75, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 41.07142857142857, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 102, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 15.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -24.050632911392405, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 14.0, "confirmation": 19.75, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 38 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 14.8% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 9.238092665567246, "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 14.00; Wave 2 15.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 83% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 99, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 14.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -55.974841382856646, "weeks": 29, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 101, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 19.75, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 41.07142857142857, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 102, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 15.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -24.050632911392405, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 14.0, "confirmation": 19.75, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 38 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 9.2% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 6.466664865897072, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bullish-wave2", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 14.00; Wave 2 15.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 83% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 99, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 14.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -55.974841382856646, "weeks": 29, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 101, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 19.75, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 41.07142857142857, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 102, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 15.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -24.050632911392405, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 14.0, "confirmation": 19.75, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements." }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 6.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 0, "changes": 7, "observations": 9, "label": "Low" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "wave2_trough", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "confidence": 45, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bullish-wave2", "labels": [ { "index": 99, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 14.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -55.974841382856646, "weeks": 29, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 101, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 19.75, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 41.07142857142857, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 102, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 15.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -24.050632911392405, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "notes": [ "Close remains below Fair Value, leaving valuation room if the turn holds." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": -33.95464982821384, "fair_value_gap": -47.91315442173219, "market_activity": -55.200439, "market_dynamics": -0.794761, "relative_strength": -58.471657, "roc30": -48.275862068965516, "hurst_alignment": 50, "hurst_risk": 50 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as possible wave 2 trough. Price is 34.0% below its 30-week trend. 0 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": -10.447761194029852 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": -37.5 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": -46.23655913978494 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": -46.902654867256636 } ], "range": { "high_52": 32.299999, "low_52": 12.8, "position_52": 11.282051860618042, "drawdown": -53.560370079268424 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 68.02322103071471, "average_weekly_range": 12.57715774714773, "active_drawdown": -75.0 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 99, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 14.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -55.974841382856646, "weeks": 29, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": { "index": 101, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 19.75, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 41.07142857142857, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": { "index": 99, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 14.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -55.974841382856646, "weeks": 29, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bullish structure weakens below", "trend": 22.711667, "fair_value": 28.798058, "trend_gap": -33.95464982821384, "fair_value_gap": -47.91315442173219 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 101, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 19.75, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 41.07142857142857, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 102, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 15.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -24.050632911392405, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": -24.050632911392405, "weeks": 1, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "negative", "value": "34.0% below trend", "explanation": "Price remains below its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "negative", "value": "Falling", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "neutral", "value": "Mixed", "explanation": "Cycle lengths are not moving in one clear direction." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "negative", "value": "-58.5", "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "negative", "value": "-55.2", "explanation": "Participation is weak" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "negative", "value": "-0.8", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is weak" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "negative", "value": "-48.3", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is negative" } ], "positive": 0, "negative": 6, "neutral": 1, "observed": 7, "agreement": 86, "direction": "defensive", "scenario_direction": "bullish" }, "evidence": { "score": 79, "history_score": 40, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 103, "confirmed_pivots": 13 }, "volume_ratio": 406.95718202214425, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 23, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 22, "positive_rate": 18.2, "median_return": -9.06, "bar_width": 45.300000000000004, "average_return": -8.65, "best_return": 9.72, "worst_return": -22.81 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 13, "positive_rate": 0.0, "median_return": -24.15, "bar_width": 100.0, "average_return": -23.34, "best_return": -13.98, "worst_return": -39.52 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 0, "positive_rate": null, "median_return": null, "bar_width": 0, "average_return": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "watching", "label": "Watching", "now": "Possible Wave 2 trough is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is mixed.", "next": "A weekly close through 19.75, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 14.00; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 24, "constructive_count": 14, "constructive_percent": 58, "rising_cycle_count": 9, "rising_cycle_percent": 38, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 338, "positive_rate": 53.3, "median_return": 0.99, "average_return": 2.37, "median_excess_return": 0.7, "excess_observations": 338, "p10": -11.73, "p90": 19.31 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 141, "positive_rate": 62.4, "median_return": 7.39, "average_return": 8.96, "median_excess_return": 3.33, "excess_observations": 141, "p10": -15.34, "p90": 32.27 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 92, "positive_rate": 63.0, "median_return": 9.51, "average_return": 17.05, "median_excess_return": 6.31, "excess_observations": 92, "p10": -18.63, "p90": 64.32 } ], "benchmark": "^TWII", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 6.666666666666667, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 29, "label": "Contained", "tone": "contained", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 34.0% below the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 11% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 11, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 73, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 8, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 50, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 50/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 10, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has low recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling.", "The primary interpretation has low recent stability." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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