{ "ticker": { "symbol": "3008", "name": "Bosera Global Exchange Traded Funds Series Open-ended Fund Company - Bosera Hashkey Bitcoin Etf", "exchange": "HKG" }, "latest_week": "2026-08-07", "latest_close": 4.94, "latest_open": 4.88, "latest_high": 4.996, "latest_low": 4.794, "bar_count": 118, "analysis_bar_count": 118, "reversal_percent": 9.677391950727426, "model": { "version": "ewc-2.1.0", "as_of": "2026-08-07", "price_basis": "weekly OHLCV; Elliott pivots use weekly closes", "wave_method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "cycle_method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation", "repainting_policy": "only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained" }, "pivots": [ { "index": 35, "date": "2025-01-10", "price": 7.34, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -99.00352969873025, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 37, "date": "2025-01-24", "price": 8.155, "kind": "high", 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0.58\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 8% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 14w; Wave 4 lasted 9w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 88, "date": "2026-01-16", "price": 7.35, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 13.865220759101465, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 91, "date": "2026-02-06", "price": 4.992, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -32.08163265306122, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 105, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 6.205, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 24.298878205128208, "weeks": 14, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 108, "date": "2026-06-05", "price": 4.836, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -22.062852538275582, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 117, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 4.94, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 2.150537634408604, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": false, "label": "4" } ], "invalidation": 6.205, "confirmation": 4.836, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 55 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 6.21; Wave 2 4.94.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 8% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 105, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 6.205, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 24.298878205128208, "weeks": 14, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 108, "date": "2026-06-05", "price": 4.836, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -22.062852538275582, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 117, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 4.94, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 2.150537634408604, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 6.205, "confirmation": 4.836, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 9 }, { "id": "strategic-bearish-wave4", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave4", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 4 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 75, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 9.30; Wave 2 6.21.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 4.99; Wave 3 4.84.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 4.99; Wave 4 4.94.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 28% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.32\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 8% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 14w; Wave 4 lasted 9w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 74, "date": "2025-10-10", "price": 9.305, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 51.79445350734095, "weeks": 32, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 91, "date": "2026-02-06", "price": 4.992, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -46.35142396560988, "weeks": 17, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 105, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 6.205, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 24.298878205128208, "weeks": 14, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 108, "date": "2026-06-05", "price": 4.836, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -22.062852538275582, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 117, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 4.94, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 2.150537634408604, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": false, "label": "4" } ], "invalidation": 6.205, "confirmation": 4.836, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 36 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 15.483827121163882, "primary": { "id": "strategic-bearish-wave4", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave4", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 4 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 75, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 9.30; Wave 2 6.21.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 4.99; Wave 3 4.84.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 4.99; Wave 4 4.94.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 28% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.32\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 8% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 14w; Wave 4 lasted 9w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 74, "date": "2025-10-10", "price": 9.305, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 51.79445350734095, "weeks": 32, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 91, "date": "2026-02-06", "price": 4.992, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -46.35142396560988, "weeks": 17, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 105, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 6.205, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 24.298878205128208, "weeks": 14, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 108, "date": "2026-06-05", "price": 4.836, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -22.062852538275582, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 117, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 4.94, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 2.150537634408604, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": false, "label": "4" } ], "invalidation": 6.205, "confirmation": 4.836, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 36 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 15.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 9.677391950727426, "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-wave4", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave4", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 4 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 80, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 7.35; Wave 2 6.21.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 4.99; Wave 3 4.84.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 4.99; Wave 4 4.94.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 51% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.58\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 8% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 14w; Wave 4 lasted 9w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 88, "date": "2026-01-16", "price": 7.35, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 13.865220759101465, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 91, "date": "2026-02-06", "price": 4.992, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -32.08163265306122, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 105, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 6.205, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 24.298878205128208, "weeks": 14, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 108, "date": "2026-06-05", "price": 4.836, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -22.062852538275582, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 117, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 4.94, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 2.150537634408604, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": false, "label": "4" } ], "invalidation": 6.205, "confirmation": 4.836, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 55 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 9.7% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 6.7741743655091975, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bullish-wave2", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 4.66; Wave 2 4.94.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 22% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 111, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 4.656, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -24.96373892022563, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 115, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 5.02, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 7.817869415807559, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 117, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 4.94, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -1.593625498007952, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 4.656, "confirmation": 5.02, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements." }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 6.8% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 20, "changes": 5, "observations": 9, "label": "Low" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "cycle_rollover", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 4 crest", "direction": "bearish", "confidence": 72, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bearish-wave4", "labels": [ { "index": 88, "date": "2026-01-16", "price": 7.35, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 13.865220759101465, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 91, "date": "2026-02-06", "price": 4.992, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -32.08163265306122, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 105, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 6.205, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 24.298878205128208, "weeks": 14, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 108, "date": "2026-06-05", "price": 4.836, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -22.062852538275582, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 117, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 4.94, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 2.150537634408604, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": false, "label": "4" } ], "notes": [ "Market Activity has fallen below zero.", "Market Dynamics is negative.", "30-week price rate of change is negative." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": -9.47738767133328, "fair_value_gap": -81.26927506293278, "market_activity": -9.870798, "market_dynamics": -0.005127, "relative_strength": -23.867486, "roc30": -29.073941134242634, "hurst_alignment": 75, "hurst_risk": 25 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as possible bearish wave 4 crest. Price is 9.5% below its 30-week trend. 2 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": 0.4065040650406598 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": -19.148936170212764 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": -1.0416666666666587 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": -45.71428571428571 } ], "range": { "high_52": 9.625, "low_52": 4.49, "position_52": 8.763388510223956, "drawdown": -48.67532467532467 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 31.868273714741317, "average_weekly_range": 4.072184086044438, "active_drawdown": -99.32935105064406 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 108, "date": "2026-06-05", "price": 4.836, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -22.062852538275582, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": { "index": 105, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 6.205, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 24.298878205128208, "weeks": 14, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": { "index": 105, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 6.205, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 24.298878205128208, "weeks": 14, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above", "trend": 5.4572, "fair_value": 26.373779, "trend_gap": -9.47738767133328, "fair_value_gap": -81.26927506293278 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 108, "date": "2026-06-05", "price": 4.836, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -22.062852538275582, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 117, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 4.94, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 2.150537634408604, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 2.150537634408604, "weeks": 9, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "negative", "value": "9.5% below trend", "explanation": "Price remains below its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "positive", "value": "Troughing", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "positive", "value": "Rising Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are improving together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "negative", "value": "-23.9", "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "negative", "value": "-9.9", "explanation": "Participation is weak" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "negative", "value": "-0.0", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is weak" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "negative", "value": "-29.1", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is negative" } ], "positive": 2, "negative": 5, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 71, "direction": "defensive", "scenario_direction": "bearish" }, "evidence": { "score": 81, "history_score": 45, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 118, "confirmed_pivots": 16 }, "volume_ratio": 184.82199950193086, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 32, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 31, "positive_rate": 38.7, "median_return": -0.97, "bar_width": 4.85, "average_return": -3.6, "best_return": 13.5, "worst_return": -30.75 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 28, "positive_rate": 17.9, "median_return": -14.52, "bar_width": 72.6, "average_return": -12.21, "best_return": 22.4, "worst_return": -36.16 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 15, "positive_rate": 0.0, "median_return": -26.56, "bar_width": 100.0, "average_return": -24.96, "best_return": -7.98, "worst_return": -34.31 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "watching", "label": "Watching", "now": "Possible bearish Wave 4 crest is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is rising stack.", "next": "A weekly close through 4.84, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 6.21; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 22, "constructive_count": 6, "constructive_percent": 27, "rising_cycle_count": 8, "rising_cycle_percent": 36, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 427, "positive_rate": 42.9, "median_return": -1.12, "average_return": 0.54, "median_excess_return": -0.2, "excess_observations": 427, "p10": -8.23, "p90": 11.24 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 159, "positive_rate": 46.5, "median_return": -1.58, "average_return": 0.27, "median_excess_return": -0.04, "excess_observations": 159, "p10": -14.52, "p90": 16.37 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 88, "positive_rate": 44.3, "median_return": -1.05, "average_return": 0.47, "median_excess_return": -1.19, "excess_observations": 88, "p10": -20.39, "p90": 23.91 } ], "benchmark": "^HSI", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 25.607287449392704, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 12, "label": "Contained", "tone": "contained", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 9.5% below the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 9% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is troughing." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 4, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 25, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 25/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 8, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 80, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has low recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "The primary interpretation has low recent stability." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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