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0.8558966497920868 }, { "date": "2026-02-27", "value": 0.7920140585385582 }, { "date": "2026-03-06", "value": 0.5898243976088249 }, { "date": "2026-03-13", "value": 0.3329293499496555 }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "value": 0.03935660276757791 }, { "date": "2026-03-27", "value": -0.29248545910932333 }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "value": -0.2656073549329497 }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "value": -0.05335676796242653 }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "value": 0.3448934021314203 }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": 0.6268924689490178 }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 0.8379443753394838 }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": 1.0790602881191118 }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": 1.2187100402542446 }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": 1.320863486066239 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": 1.444620810610943 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": 1.343969881353965 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": 1.2466311590398804 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": 1.2091066776690342 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": 1.029097785130706 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": 0.9575127682515358 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": 0.970071031517014 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": 0.8587190915962265 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": 0.7023873509971845 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": 0.6624320323237425 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 75, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 24.23; Wave B 27.98.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 6.58; C length 3.87.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.59\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 52, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 24.2325, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.541046230607305, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 92, "date": "2026-01-09", "price": 30.8144, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 27.16145672134529, "weeks": 40, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 103, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 27.98, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.198296900150575, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 121, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 31.8497, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 13.830235882773403, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 31.8497, "confirmation": 27.98, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 62 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bullish-wave3", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 69, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 24.23; Wave 2 27.98.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 30.81; Wave 3 31.85.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 43% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.59\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 52, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 24.2325, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.541046230607305, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 92, "date": "2026-01-09", "price": 30.8144, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 27.16145672134529, "weeks": 40, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 103, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 27.98, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.198296900150575, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 121, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 31.8497, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 13.830235882773403, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 27.98, "confirmation": 31.8497, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 38 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 8.0, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 5.0, "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 75, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 24.23; Wave B 27.98.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 6.58; C length 3.87.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.59\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 52, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 24.2325, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.541046230607305, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 92, "date": "2026-01-09", "price": 30.8144, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 27.16145672134529, "weeks": 40, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 103, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 27.98, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.198296900150575, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 121, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 31.8497, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 13.830235882773403, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 31.8497, "confirmation": 27.98, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 62 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 3.5, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 68, "changes": 2, "observations": 9, "label": "Moderate" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "hurst_crest_risk", "title": "Hurst crest risk", "direction": "risk", "confidence": 80, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bearish-abc", "labels": [ { "index": 52, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 24.2325, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.541046230607305, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 92, "date": "2026-01-09", "price": 30.8144, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 27.16145672134529, "weeks": 40, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 103, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 27.98, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.198296900150575, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 121, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 31.8497, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 13.830235882773403, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "notes": [ "Hurst rhythm shows a falling stack.", "Hurst risk alignment is elevated." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": 3.353510659773814, "fair_value_gap": 13.104728472052233, "market_activity": 28.933209, "market_dynamics": 0.321631, "relative_strength": -3.512471, "roc30": 5.0781082463172735, "hurst_alignment": 25, "hurst_risk": 75 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as hurst crest risk. Price is 3.4% above its 30-week trend. 4 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": 0.09962914073793819 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": 2.641637125362544 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 3.8498157748866872 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 13.822913465180934 } ], "range": { "high_52": 32.4287, "low_52": 27.79, "position_52": 87.51805462737403, "drawdown": -1.7854554761677177 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 11.874894809128604, "average_weekly_range": 1.8635092792874568, "active_drawdown": -1.4804366452922058 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 103, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 27.98, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.198296900150575, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": null, "decisive": null, "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above", "trend": 30.816273, "fair_value": 28.159477, "trend_gap": 3.353510659773814, "fair_value_gap": 13.104728472052233 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 103, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 27.98, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -9.198296900150575, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 121, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 31.8497, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 13.830235882773403, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 13.830235882773403, "weeks": 18, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "3.4% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "negative", "value": "Cresting", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "negative", "value": "Falling Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are weakening together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "negative", "value": "-3.5", "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "positive", "value": "+28.9", "explanation": "Participation is supportive" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "positive", "value": "+0.3", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "positive", "value": "+5.1", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive" } ], "positive": 4, "negative": 3, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 57, "direction": "constructive", "scenario_direction": "risk" }, "evidence": { "score": 75, "history_score": 47, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 67, "weekly_observations": 122, "confirmed_pivots": 4 }, "volume_ratio": 29.789624047514803, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 43, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 42, "positive_rate": 64.3, "median_return": 0.62, "bar_width": 3.1, "average_return": 0.3, "best_return": 3.68, "worst_return": -7.82 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 34, "positive_rate": 79.4, "median_return": 2.81, "bar_width": 14.05, "average_return": 1.92, "best_return": 8.77, "worst_return": -8.73 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 28, "positive_rate": 85.7, "median_return": 4.69, "bar_width": 23.450000000000003, "average_return": 3.84, "best_return": 9.6, "worst_return": -5.43 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "triggered", "label": "Triggered", "now": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is falling stack.", "next": "A weekly close through 27.98, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 31.85; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 17, "constructive_count": 10, "constructive_percent": 59, "rising_cycle_count": 7, "rising_cycle_percent": 41, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 480, "positive_rate": 64.4, "median_return": 0.68, "average_return": 0.64, "median_excess_return": -0.51, "excess_observations": 480, "p10": -4.89, "p90": 6.14 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 167, "positive_rate": 69.5, "median_return": 1.91, "average_return": 3.26, "median_excess_return": -0.95, "excess_observations": 167, "p10": -6.47, "p90": 12.5 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 90, "positive_rate": 67.8, "median_return": 3.24, "average_return": 2.98, "median_excess_return": -2.62, "excess_observations": 90, "p10": -11.29, "p90": 16.2 } ], "benchmark": "SPY", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 0.0, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 37, "label": "Watch", "tone": "watch", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 3.4% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 8, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 50, "explanation": "Price is 88% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 15, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 11, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 75, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 75/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 3, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 32, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has moderate recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting.", "Hurst risk alignment is 75/100." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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