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          "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
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        {
          "index": 271,
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      "evidence_weight": 50
    },
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      {
        "id": "tactical-bullish-wave2",
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              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 40% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 271,
              "date": "2026-08-28",
              "price": 19.469999,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -11.900457013574659,
              "weeks": 1,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 274,
              "date": "2026-09-18",
              "price": 23.469999,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 20.54442837927213,
              "weeks": 3,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 275,
              "date": "2026-09-25",
              "price": 21.85,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -6.902424665633773,
              "weeks": 1,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "2"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 19.469999,
          "confirmation": 23.469999,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
          "evidence_weight": 50
        },
        "candidate_count": 1,
        "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 9.4% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "tactical",
        "label": "Tactical",
        "reversal_percent": 6.566293217419312,
        "primary": {
          "id": "tactical-bullish-wave2",
          "degree": "tactical",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave2",
          "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough",
          "direction": "bullish",
          "score": 63,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 19.47; Wave 2 21.85.",
              "hard": true
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 40% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 271,
              "date": "2026-08-28",
              "price": 19.469999,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -11.900457013574659,
              "weeks": 1,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 274,
              "date": "2026-09-18",
              "price": 23.469999,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 20.54442837927213,
              "weeks": 3,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 275,
              "date": "2026-09-25",
              "price": 21.85,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -6.902424665633773,
              "weeks": 1,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "2"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 19.469999,
          "confirmation": 23.469999,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
          "evidence_weight": 50
        },
        "candidate_count": 1,
        "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 6.6% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      }
    ],
    "stability": {
      "score": 36,
      "changes": 4,
      "observations": 9,
      "label": "Low"
    },
    "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration",
    "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities."
  },
  "scenario": {
    "setup": "wave_hurst_confluence",
    "title": "Wave + Hurst trough confluence",
    "direction": "bullish",
    "confidence": 95,
    "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.",
    "candidate_id": "primary-bullish-wave2",
    "labels": [
      {
        "index": 271,
        "date": "2026-08-28",
        "price": 19.469999,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -11.900457013574659,
        "weeks": 1,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "0"
      },
      {
        "index": 274,
        "date": "2026-09-18",
        "price": 23.469999,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 20.54442837927213,
        "weeks": 3,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "1"
      },
      {
        "index": 275,
        "date": "2026-09-25",
        "price": 21.85,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -6.902424665633773,
        "weeks": 1,
        "confirmed": false,
        "label": "2"
      }
    ],
    "notes": [
      "Hurst rhythm shows a rising stack.",
      "Hurst cycle alignment is strong.",
      "Price is above the 30-week trend line.",
      "Close remains below Fair Value, leaving valuation room if the turn holds.",
      "Market Activity is positive."
    ],
    "metrics": {
      "trend_gap": 15.034310496714994,
      "fair_value_gap": -15.254986691348343,
      "market_activity": 92.186257,
      "market_dynamics": 1.560643,
      "relative_strength": 7.023783,
      "roc30": 2.7335106838149485,
      "hurst_alignment": 100,
      "hurst_risk": 0
    }
  },
  "detail": {
    "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as wave + hurst trough confluence. Price is 15.0% above its 30-week trend. 7 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.",
    "returns": [
      {
        "weeks": 4,
        "label": "4-week return",
        "value": 12.22394002177401
      },
      {
        "weeks": 13,
        "label": "13-week return",
        "value": 36.56250000000001
      },
      {
        "weeks": 26,
        "label": "26-week return",
        "value": 8.652406332550658
      },
      {
        "weeks": 52,
        "label": "52-week return",
        "value": -6.815163633638845
      }
    ],
    "range": {
      "high_52": 26.055519,
      "low_52": 15.1,
      "position_52": 61.6127816491396,
      "drawdown": -16.140607293218757
    },
    "risk": {
      "annualised_volatility": 60.03682477433513,
      "average_weekly_range": 6.385730146942385,
      "active_drawdown": -32.65642510099995
    },
    "levels": {
      "support": {
        "index": 271,
        "date": "2026-08-28",
        "price": 19.469999,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -11.900457013574659,
        "weeks": 1,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "resistance": {
        "index": 274,
        "date": "2026-09-18",
        "price": 23.469999,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 20.54442837927213,
        "weeks": 3,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "decisive": {
        "index": 271,
        "date": "2026-08-28",
        "price": 19.469999,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -11.900457013574659,
        "weeks": 1,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "decisive_label": "Bullish structure weakens below",
      "trend": 18.994333,
      "fair_value": 25.783228,
      "trend_gap": 15.034310496714994,
      "fair_value_gap": -15.254986691348343
    },
    "active_swing": {
      "from": {
        "index": 274,
        "date": "2026-09-18",
        "price": 23.469999,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 20.54442837927213,
        "weeks": 3,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "to": {
        "index": 275,
        "date": "2026-09-25",
        "price": 21.85,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -6.902424665633773,
        "weeks": 1,
        "confirmed": false
      },
      "move_percent": -6.902424665633773,
      "weeks": 1,
      "status": "Forming"
    },
    "confirmation": {
      "rows": [
        {
          "label": "Trend",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "15.0% above trend",
          "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle pressure",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "Rising",
          "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle alignment",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "Rising Stack",
          "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are improving together."
        },
        {
          "label": "Relative strength",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+7.0",
          "explanation": "Outperforming its benchmark"
        },
        {
          "label": "Market activity",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+92.2",
          "explanation": "Participation is supportive"
        },
        {
          "label": "Market dynamics",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+1.6",
          "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive"
        },
        {
          "label": "30-week momentum",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+2.7",
          "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive"
        }
      ],
      "positive": 7,
      "negative": 0,
      "neutral": 0,
      "observed": 7,
      "agreement": 100,
      "direction": "constructive",
      "scenario_direction": "bullish"
    },
    "evidence": {
      "score": 100,
      "history_score": 100,
      "indicator_coverage": 100,
      "structure_score": 100,
      "weekly_observations": 276,
      "confirmed_pivots": 7
    },
    "volume_ratio": 199.8397079254369,
    "historical": {
      "available": true,
      "matches": 75,
      "horizons": [
        {
          "weeks": 4,
          "observations": 75,
          "positive_rate": 54.7,
          "median_return": 1.24,
          "bar_width": 6.2,
          "average_return": 0.03,
          "best_return": 9.64,
          "worst_return": -12.87
        },
        {
          "weeks": 13,
          "observations": 74,
          "positive_rate": 37.8,
          "median_return": -2.55,
          "bar_width": 12.75,
          "average_return": -1.49,
          "best_return": 16.87,
          "worst_return": -33.14
        },
        {
          "weeks": 26,
          "observations": 74,
          "positive_rate": 55.4,
          "median_return": 0.89,
          "bar_width": 4.45,
          "average_return": 0.04,
          "best_return": 27.19,
          "worst_return": -27.73
        }
      ],
      "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast."
    },
    "lifecycle": {
      "state": "watching",
      "label": "Watching",
      "now": "Possible Wave 2 trough is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is rising stack.",
      "next": "A weekly close above 23.47, with a cycle-price cross and relative strength in the same direction.",
      "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 19.47; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.",
      "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.",
      "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation."
    },
    "peer_evidence": {
      "available": true,
      "peers": 24,
      "constructive_count": 11,
      "constructive_percent": 46,
      "rising_cycle_count": 2,
      "rising_cycle_percent": 8,
      "horizons": [
        {
          "weeks": 4,
          "observations": 813,
          "positive_rate": 55.2,
          "median_return": 0.77,
          "average_return": 0.57,
          "median_excess_return": 0.42,
          "excess_observations": 813,
          "p10": -6.92,
          "p90": 7.92
        },
        {
          "weeks": 13,
          "observations": 299,
          "positive_rate": 57.2,
          "median_return": 1.8,
          "average_return": 2.15,
          "median_excess_return": 0.84,
          "excess_observations": 299,
          "p10": -10.19,
          "p90": 14.46
        },
        {
          "weeks": 26,
          "observations": 163,
          "positive_rate": 60.1,
          "median_return": 3.93,
          "average_return": 5.08,
          "median_excess_return": 0.35,
          "excess_observations": 163,
          "p10": -12.17,
          "p90": 24.6
        }
      ],
      "benchmark": "^AXJO",
      "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count."
    },
    "event_positioning": {
      "earnings_date": "2026-10-20",
      "earnings_weeks": 4,
      "options_available": true,
      "options_direction": "bullish",
      "options_conviction": 21.48,
      "expected_move": 4.75028147,
      "invalidation_distance": 10.892453089244851,
      "collision": false,
      "flags": [
        "Earnings are due in about 4 weeks.",
        "Stored options pressure is bullish with 21/100 conviction."
      ],
      "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure."
    },
    "downside_vulnerability": {
      "score": 25,
      "label": "Contained",
      "tone": "contained",
      "components": [
        {
          "key": "wave",
          "label": "Wave maturity",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 25,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5."
        },
        {
          "key": "extension",
          "label": "Trend extension",
          "score": 14,
          "maximum": 20,
          "bar_width": 70,
          "explanation": "Price is 15.0% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability."
        },
        {
          "key": "range",
          "label": "Range position",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Price is 62% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range."
        },
        {
          "key": "cycle",
          "label": "Cycle rollover",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is rising."
        },
        {
          "key": "hurst",
          "label": "Multi-cycle risk",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 0/100."
        },
        {
          "key": "stability",
          "label": "Count instability",
          "score": 6,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 64,
          "explanation": "The primary interpretation has low recent stability."
        },
        {
          "key": "event",
          "label": "Event proximity",
          "score": 5,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 50,
          "explanation": "Earnings are about 4 week(s) away."
        }
      ],
      "warnings": [
        "Price is 15.0% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability."
      ],
      "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down."
    }
  },
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