{ "ticker": { "symbol": "EMXCNS", "name": "UBS MSCI EM ex China Socially Responsible UCITS ETF USD acc", "exchange": "EBS" }, "latest_week": "2026-08-07", "latest_close": 10.494, "latest_open": 10.044, "latest_high": 10.494, "latest_low": 10.044, "bar_count": 125, "analysis_bar_count": 125, "reversal_percent": 5.225035663046678, "model": { "version": "ewc-2.1.0", "as_of": "2026-08-07", "price_basis": "weekly OHLCV; Elliott pivots use weekly closes", "wave_method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "cycle_method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation", "repainting_policy": "only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained" }, "pivots": [ { "index": 53, "date": "2025-03-28", "price": 5.418, "kind": "high", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 54, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 5.017, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.401255075673676, "weeks": 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}, { "date": "2026-08-07", "value": 0.8729734545860013 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-wave5", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave5", "title": "Five-wave advance mature", "direction": "bullish", "score": 95, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 5.02; Wave 2 7.86.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 8.95; Wave 3 11.37.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 8.95; Wave 4 9.89.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 is not the shortest motive wave", "passed": true, "detail": "Motive lengths: 3.93, 3.51, 0.61.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 5 makes motive progress", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 11.37; Wave 5 10.49.", "hard": false } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 28% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.89\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 42% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 5w; Wave 4 lasted 6w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 54, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 5.017, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.401255075673676, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 101, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 8.946, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 78.313733306757, "weeks": 47, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 106, "date": "2026-04-03", "price": 7.855, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -12.195394589760781, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 117, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 11.37, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 44.74856779121577, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 123, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 9.889, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -13.025505716798593, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "4" }, { "index": 124, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 10.494, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.117908787541718, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "5" } ], "invalidation": 9.889, "confirmation": 10.494, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 90 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 11.37; Wave 2 10.49.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 41% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 117, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 11.37, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 44.74856779121577, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 123, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 9.889, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -13.025505716798593, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 124, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 10.494, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.117908787541718, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 11.37, "confirmation": 9.889, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 6 }, { "id": "primary-bearish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 7.86; Wave B 9.89.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 3.51; C length 0.61.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave C is 0.17\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 106, "date": "2026-04-03", "price": 7.855, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -12.195394589760781, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 117, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 11.37, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 44.74856779121577, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 123, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 9.889, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -13.025505716798593, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 124, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 10.494, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.117908787541718, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 10.494, "confirmation": 9.889, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 4 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 8.360057060874686, "primary": { "id": "strategic-bearish-wave2", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 11.37; Wave 2 10.49.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 26% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 117, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 11.37, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 44.74856779121577, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 121, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 10.188, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -10.395778364116083, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 124, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 10.494, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 3.0035335689045852, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 11.37, "confirmation": 10.188, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements." }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.4% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 5.225035663046678, "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-wave5", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave5", "title": "Five-wave advance mature", "direction": "bullish", "score": 95, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 5.02; Wave 2 7.86.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 8.95; Wave 3 11.37.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 8.95; Wave 4 9.89.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 is not the shortest motive wave", "passed": true, "detail": "Motive lengths: 3.93, 3.51, 0.61.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 5 makes motive progress", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 11.37; Wave 5 10.49.", "hard": false } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 28% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.89\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 42% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 5w; Wave 4 lasted 6w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 54, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 5.017, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.401255075673676, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 101, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 8.946, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 78.313733306757, "weeks": 47, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 106, "date": "2026-04-03", "price": 7.855, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -12.195394589760781, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 117, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 11.37, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 44.74856779121577, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 123, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 9.889, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -13.025505716798593, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "4" }, { "index": 124, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 10.494, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.117908787541718, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "5" } ], "invalidation": 9.889, "confirmation": 10.494, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 90 }, "candidate_count": 3, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.2% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 3.6575249641326746, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bearish-wave4", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave4", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 4 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 85, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 11.37; Wave 2 11.15.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 10.75; Wave 3 9.89.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 10.75; Wave 4 10.49.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 65% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 2.04\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 48% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 1w; Wave 4 lasted 1w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 117, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 11.37, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 7.345166163141982, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 118, "date": "2026-06-26", "price": 10.75, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.452946350043969, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 119, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 11.152, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 3.739534883720923, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 123, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 9.889, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.325322812051649, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 124, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 10.494, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.117908787541718, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "4" } ], "invalidation": 11.152, "confirmation": 9.889, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements." }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.7% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 20, "changes": 5, "observations": 9, "label": "Low" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "wave5_risk", "title": "Five-wave advance mature", "direction": "risk", "confidence": 95, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bullish-wave5", "labels": [ { "index": 54, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 5.017, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.401255075673676, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 101, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 8.946, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 78.313733306757, "weeks": 47, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 106, "date": "2026-04-03", "price": 7.855, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -12.195394589760781, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 117, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 11.37, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 44.74856779121577, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 123, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 9.889, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -13.025505716798593, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true, "label": "4" }, { "index": 124, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 10.494, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.117908787541718, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "5" } ], "notes": [ "Hurst rhythm shows a falling stack.", "Hurst risk alignment is elevated.", "Market Dynamics is negative." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": 11.032732436825667, "fair_value_gap": 54.304899364356146, "market_activity": 23.827486, "market_dynamics": -0.655156, "relative_strength": 12.8087, "roc30": 34.832326866246945, "hurst_alignment": 0, "hurst_risk": 100 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as five-wave advance mature. Price is 11.0% above its 30-week trend. 4 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": -2.5264722273825027 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": 1.0982658959537475 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 25.511302475780393 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 64.99999999999999 } ], "range": { "high_52": 11.37, "low_52": 6.37, "position_52": 82.48, "drawdown": -7.704485488126644 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 35.41970818137034, "average_weekly_range": 2.8273612467696423, "active_drawdown": -7.704485488126644 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 123, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 9.889, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -13.025505716798593, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": { "index": 117, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 11.37, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 44.74856779121577, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": { "index": 117, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 11.37, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 44.74856779121577, "weeks": 11, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above", "trend": 9.451267, "fair_value": 6.800821, "trend_gap": 11.032732436825667, "fair_value_gap": 54.304899364356146 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 123, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 9.889, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -13.025505716798593, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 124, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 10.494, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 6.117908787541718, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 6.117908787541718, "weeks": 1, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "11.0% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "negative", "value": "Cresting", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "negative", "value": "Falling Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are weakening together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "positive", "value": "+12.8", "explanation": "Outperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "positive", "value": "+23.8", "explanation": "Participation is supportive" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "negative", "value": "-0.7", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is weak" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "positive", "value": "+34.8", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive" } ], "positive": 4, "negative": 3, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 57, "direction": "constructive", "scenario_direction": "risk" }, "evidence": { "score": 82, "history_score": 48, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 125, "confirmed_pivots": 6 }, "volume_ratio": 22.679596710387827, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 32, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 31, "positive_rate": 87.1, "median_return": 6.39, "bar_width": 31.95, "average_return": 6.02, "best_return": 20.68, "worst_return": -11.33 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 29, "positive_rate": 100.0, "median_return": 12.06, "bar_width": 60.300000000000004, "average_return": 17.04, "best_return": 41.97, "worst_return": 3.37 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 20, "positive_rate": 100.0, "median_return": 33.43, "bar_width": 100.0, "average_return": 34.78, "best_return": 55.33, "worst_return": 16.7 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "mature", "label": "Mature / manage risk", "now": "Five-wave advance mature is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is falling stack.", "next": "Watch for a confirmed weekly reversal, cycle rollover, or deterioration in relative strength and participation; a mature count is a risk-management state, not a fresh bullish trigger.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 9.89; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 24, "constructive_count": 13, "constructive_percent": 54, "rising_cycle_count": 8, "rising_cycle_percent": 33, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 696, "positive_rate": 62.4, "median_return": 0.89, "average_return": 0.74, "median_excess_return": 0.03, "excess_observations": 696, "p10": -6.54, "p90": 6.54 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 244, "positive_rate": 71.3, "median_return": 3.44, "average_return": 3.37, "median_excess_return": 1.44, "excess_observations": 244, "p10": -11.5, "p90": 17.53 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 133, "positive_rate": 76.7, "median_return": 5.49, "average_return": 4.99, "median_excess_return": 3.54, "excess_observations": 133, "p10": -16.93, "p90": 26.25 } ], "benchmark": "^SSMI", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 5.76519916142558, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 75, "label": "High vulnerability", "tone": "high", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 25, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "A forming Wave 5 is mature structure: upside can continue, but reward-to-risk is usually less forgiving." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 8, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 39, "explanation": "Price is 11.0% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 4, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 30, "explanation": "Price is 82% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 15, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 15, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 100/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 8, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 80, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has low recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "A forming Wave 5 is mature structure: upside can continue, but reward-to-risk is usually less forgiving.", "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting.", "Hurst risk alignment is 100/100.", "The primary interpretation has low recent stability." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down." } }, "chart": { "dates": [ "2024-03-22", "2024-03-29", "2024-04-05", "2024-04-12", "2024-04-19", "2024-04-26", "2024-05-03", "2024-05-10", "2024-05-17", "2024-05-24", "2024-05-31", "2024-06-07", "2024-06-14", "2024-06-21", "2024-06-28", "2024-07-05", "2024-07-12", "2024-07-19", "2024-07-26", "2024-08-02", "2024-08-09", "2024-08-16", "2024-08-23", "2024-08-30", "2024-09-06", "2024-09-13", "2024-09-20", "2024-09-27", "2024-10-04", "2024-10-11", "2024-10-18", "2024-10-25", "2024-11-01", "2024-11-08", "2024-11-15", "2024-11-22", "2024-11-29", "2024-12-06", "2024-12-13", "2024-12-20", "2024-12-27", "2025-01-03", "2025-01-10", "2025-01-17", "2025-01-24", "2025-01-31", "2025-02-07", "2025-02-14", "2025-02-21", "2025-02-28", "2025-03-07", "2025-03-14", "2025-03-21", "2025-03-28", "2025-04-04", "2025-04-11", "2025-04-18", "2025-04-25", "2025-05-02", 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