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74, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 15.90; Wave 2 15.70.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 13.95; Wave 3 12.10.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 90% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 1.85\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 254, "date": "2026-04-10", "price": 15.9, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 5.64325680752855, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 261, "date": "2026-05-29", "price": 13.953642, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -12.241245283018868, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 274, "date": "2026-08-28", "price": 15.7, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 12.515427871805791, "weeks": 13, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-09-04", "price": 12.1, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -22.929936305732483, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 15.7, "confirmation": 12.1, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 35 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bullish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "A/B/C reset may be completing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 70, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 15.90; Wave B 15.70.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 1.95; C length 3.60.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 1.85\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 254, "date": "2026-04-10", "price": 15.9, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 5.64325680752855, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 261, "date": "2026-05-29", "price": 13.953642, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -12.241245283018868, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 274, "date": "2026-08-28", "price": 15.7, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 12.515427871805791, "weeks": 13, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-09-04", "price": 12.1, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -22.929936305732483, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 12.1, "confirmation": 15.7, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 25 }, { "id": "strategic-bullish-abc", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "A/B/C reset may be completing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 76, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 16.25; Wave B 15.70.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 2.29; C length 3.60.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 1.57\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 249, "date": "2026-03-06", "price": 16.246731, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 27.343741304591497, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 261, "date": "2026-05-29", "price": 13.953642, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -14.114156257034109, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 274, "date": "2026-08-28", "price": 15.7, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 12.515427871805791, "weeks": 13, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-09-04", "price": 12.1, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -22.929936305732483, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 12.1, "confirmation": 15.7, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 41 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 8.0, "primary": { "id": "strategic-bullish-abc", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "A/B/C reset may be completing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 76, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 16.25; Wave B 15.70.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 2.29; C length 3.60.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 1.57\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 249, "date": "2026-03-06", "price": 16.246731, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 27.343741304591497, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 261, "date": "2026-05-29", "price": 13.953642, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -14.114156257034109, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 274, "date": "2026-08-28", "price": 15.7, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 12.515427871805791, "weeks": 13, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-09-04", "price": 12.1, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -22.929936305732483, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 12.1, "confirmation": 15.7, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 41 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 5.0, "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-wave3", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 3 declining", "direction": "bearish", "score": 74, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 15.90; Wave 2 15.70.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 13.95; Wave 3 12.10.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 90% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 1.85\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 254, "date": "2026-04-10", "price": 15.9, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 5.64325680752855, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 261, "date": "2026-05-29", "price": 13.953642, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -12.241245283018868, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 274, "date": "2026-08-28", "price": 15.7, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 12.515427871805791, "weeks": 13, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-09-04", "price": 12.1, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -22.929936305732483, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 15.7, "confirmation": 12.1, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 35 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 3.5, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 36, "changes": 4, "observations": 9, "label": "Low" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "wave3_continuation", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 3 declining", "direction": "bearish", "confidence": 95, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bearish-wave3", "labels": [ { "index": 254, "date": "2026-04-10", "price": 15.9, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 5.64325680752855, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 261, "date": "2026-05-29", "price": 13.953642, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -12.241245283018868, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 274, "date": "2026-08-28", "price": 15.7, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 12.515427871805791, "weeks": 13, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-09-04", "price": 12.1, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -22.929936305732483, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "notes": [ "Hurst rhythm shows a falling stack.", "Hurst risk alignment is elevated.", "Market Activity has fallen below zero.", "Market Dynamics is negative.", "30-week price rate of change is negative." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": -19.263356192924288, "fair_value_gap": 0.648609585207945, "market_activity": -10.906654, "market_dynamics": -0.036827, "relative_strength": -18.523829, "roc30": -11.389256086441321, "hurst_alignment": 25, "hurst_risk": 75 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as possible bearish wave 3 declining. Price is 19.3% below its 30-week trend. 0 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": -19.867549668874172 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": -18.522145243231943 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": -25.523479154052595 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 9.507613946744906 } ], "range": { "high_52": 16.246731, "low_52": 11.04946, "position_52": 20.213300403230843, "drawdown": -25.523479154052595 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 38.25882363106634, "average_weekly_range": 1.2954185949133836, "active_drawdown": -25.523479154052595 }, "levels": { "support": null, "resistance": { "index": 274, "date": "2026-08-28", "price": 15.7, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 12.515427871805791, "weeks": 13, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": { "index": 274, "date": "2026-08-28", "price": 15.7, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 12.515427871805791, "weeks": 13, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above", "trend": 14.986999, "fair_value": 12.022024, "trend_gap": -19.263356192924288, "fair_value_gap": 0.648609585207945 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 274, "date": "2026-08-28", "price": 15.7, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 12.515427871805791, "weeks": 13, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 275, "date": "2026-09-04", "price": 12.1, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -22.929936305732483, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": -22.929936305732483, "weeks": 1, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "negative", "value": "19.3% below trend", "explanation": "Price remains below its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "negative", "value": "Falling", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "negative", "value": "Falling Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are weakening together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "negative", "value": "-18.5", "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "negative", "value": "-10.9", "explanation": "Participation is weak" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "negative", "value": "-0.0", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is weak" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "negative", "value": "-11.4", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is negative" } ], "positive": 0, "negative": 7, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 100, "direction": "defensive", "scenario_direction": "bearish" }, "evidence": { "score": 100, "history_score": 100, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 276, "confirmed_pivots": 17 }, "volume_ratio": 632.6894732759289, "historical": { "available": false, "matches": 2, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 2, "positive_rate": 100.0, "median_return": 5.95, "bar_width": 29.75, "average_return": 5.95, "best_return": 6.35, "worst_return": 5.56 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 2, "positive_rate": 100.0, "median_return": 5.95, "bar_width": 29.75, "average_return": 5.95, "best_return": 6.35, "worst_return": 5.56 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 2, "positive_rate": 100.0, "median_return": 5.95, "bar_width": 29.75, "average_return": 5.95, "best_return": 6.35, "worst_return": 5.56 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "triggered", "label": "Triggered", "now": "Possible bearish Wave 3 declining is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is falling stack.", "next": "A weekly close through 12.10, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 15.70; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 22, "constructive_count": 12, "constructive_percent": 55, "rising_cycle_count": 4, "rising_cycle_percent": 18, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 412, "positive_rate": 51.7, "median_return": 0.44, "average_return": 0.62, "median_excess_return": -1.0, "excess_observations": 411, "p10": -9.46, "p90": 10.8 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 165, "positive_rate": 56.4, "median_return": 1.32, "average_return": 1.62, "median_excess_return": -3.21, "excess_observations": 164, "p10": -14.41, "p90": 18.26 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 106, "positive_rate": 52.8, "median_return": 2.26, "average_return": 2.93, "median_excess_return": -4.09, "excess_observations": 105, "p10": -18.23, "p90": 25.31 } ], "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": "2026-10-22", "earnings_weeks": 7, "options_available": true, "options_direction": "mixed", "options_conviction": 35.72, "expected_move": 3.56643357, "invalidation_distance": 29.752066115702476, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 28, "label": "Contained", "tone": "contained", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 19.3% below the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 20% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 11, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 73, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 11, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 75, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 75/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 6, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 64, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has low recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Earnings are about 7 week(s) away." } ], "warnings": [ "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling.", "Hurst risk alignment is 75/100." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down." } }, "chart": { "dates": [ "2023-09-15", "2023-09-22", "2023-09-29", "2023-10-06", "2023-10-13", "2023-10-20", "2023-10-27", "2023-11-03", "2023-11-10", "2023-11-17", "2023-11-24", "2023-12-01", "2023-12-08", "2023-12-15", "2023-12-22", "2023-12-29", "2024-01-05", "2024-01-12", "2024-01-19", "2024-01-26", "2024-02-02", "2024-02-09", "2024-02-16", "2024-02-23", "2024-03-01", "2024-03-08", "2024-03-15", "2024-03-22", "2024-03-29", "2024-04-05", "2024-04-12", "2024-04-19", "2024-04-26", "2024-05-03", "2024-05-10", "2024-05-17", "2024-05-24", "2024-05-31", "2024-06-07", "2024-06-14", "2024-06-21", "2024-06-28", "2024-07-05", "2024-07-12", "2024-07-19", "2024-07-26", "2024-08-02", "2024-08-09", "2024-08-16", "2024-08-23", "2024-08-30", "2024-09-06", "2024-09-13", "2024-09-20", "2024-09-27", "2024-10-04", "2024-10-11", "2024-10-18", "2024-10-25", 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