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2.5567188261021494 }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "value": 0.646918504821925 } ] }, "hurst": { "status": "falling stack", "phase": "cresting", "alignment_score": 0, "risk_score": 100, "trough_alignment": 0, "crest_alignment": 0, "nearest_trough_window": 8, "nearest_crest_window": 10, "method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation", "explanation": "Nominal cycles are starting bands, not fixed clocks. 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2.208128756626398 }, { "date": "2025-12-26", "value": 2.321733216814968 }, { "date": "2026-01-02", "value": 2.5021506774499547 }, { "date": "2026-01-09", "value": 2.6722806592668817 }, { "date": "2026-01-16", "value": 2.7419478185200896 }, { "date": "2026-01-23", "value": 2.77818947245876 }, { "date": "2026-01-30", "value": 2.802784662453558 }, { "date": "2026-02-06", "value": 2.8232171138525963 }, { "date": "2026-02-13", "value": 2.8422517718632303 }, { "date": "2026-02-20", "value": 2.8608023364262314 }, { "date": "2026-02-27", "value": 2.8800457823112535 }, { "date": "2026-03-06", "value": 2.4379376669867794 }, { "date": "2026-03-13", "value": 1.9917268434468292 }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "value": 1.6590929482483836 }, { "date": "2026-03-27", "value": 1.39965772046618 }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "value": 1.3653646353930446 }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "value": 1.6898586446914035 }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "value": 2.113273110911833 }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": 2.280282610639863 }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 2.278671589847011 }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": 2.5850458315305764 }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": 2.566836364169228 }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": 2.6083931309464696 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": 2.7847424869191517 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": 2.5778780258690968 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": 2.6064633838382445 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": 2.8046138009519885 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": 2.673991896420121 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": 2.327731488891926 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": 2.1336221375766007 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": 1.7452882456034378 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": 1.4539328212001317 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": 1.2807758837064083 }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "value": 1.2264608195352442 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 66.43; Wave 2 66.67.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 97% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 266, "date": "2026-06-05", "price": 66.433998, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.970214121293241, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 268, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 75.741128, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 14.009588885498056, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 66.67, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.976489180356543, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 66.433998, "confirmation": 75.741128, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 33 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "strategic-bearish-wave2", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 75.74; Wave 2 66.67.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 17% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 268, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 75.741128, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 42.26506998824424, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 272, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 64.78, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -14.471830945005205, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 66.67, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 2.917567150355049, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 75.741128, "confirmation": 64.78, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 33 }, { "id": "strategic-bearish-abc", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 53.24; Wave B 64.78.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 22.50; C length 1.89.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave C is 0.08\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 256, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 53.239441, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -14.883794375761362, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 268, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 75.741128, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 42.26506998824424, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 272, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 64.78, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -14.471830945005205, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 66.67, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 2.917567150355049, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 66.67, "confirmation": 64.78, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 33 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 11.730474400883779, "primary": { "id": "strategic-bearish-wave2", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 75.74; Wave 2 66.67.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 17% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 268, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 75.741128, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 42.26506998824424, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 272, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 64.78, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -14.471830945005205, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 66.67, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 2.917567150355049, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 75.741128, "confirmation": 64.78, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 33 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 11.7% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 7.331546500552361, "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 66.43; Wave 2 66.67.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 97% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 266, "date": "2026-06-05", "price": 66.433998, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.970214121293241, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 268, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 75.741128, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 14.009588885498056, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 66.67, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.976489180356543, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 66.433998, "confirmation": 75.741128, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 33 }, "candidate_count": 1, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 7.3% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 5.132082550386652, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bullish-wave2", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 66.43; Wave 2 66.67.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 97% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 266, "date": "2026-06-05", "price": 66.433998, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.970214121293241, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 268, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 75.741128, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 14.009588885498056, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 66.67, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.976489180356543, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 66.433998, "confirmation": 75.741128, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements." }, "candidate_count": 1, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 5.1% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 20, "changes": 5, "observations": 9, "label": "Low" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "wave2_trough", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "confidence": 73, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bullish-wave2", "labels": [ { "index": 266, "date": "2026-06-05", "price": 66.433998, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.970214121293241, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 268, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 75.741128, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 14.009588885498056, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 66.67, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.976489180356543, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "notes": [ "Price is above the 30-week trend line.", "Market Activity is positive.", "30-week price rate of change is positive.", "Relative Strength is positive." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": 5.749133236199153, "fair_value_gap": 64.79552760708218, "market_activity": 8.395624, "market_dynamics": -0.839517, "relative_strength": 7.019139, "roc30": 22.702439608664058, "hurst_alignment": 0, "hurst_risk": 100 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as possible wave 2 trough. Price is 5.7% above its 30-week trend. 4 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": -4.429472477064225 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": -2.748527618251193 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 13.52784289503867 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 61.835267766851956 } ], "range": { "high_52": 76.547414, "low_52": 40.379178, "position_52": 72.69036289190326, "drawdown": -12.903654720458617 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 37.39391745238627, "average_weekly_range": 7.494092160614031, "active_drawdown": -11.976489180356543 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 266, "date": "2026-06-05", "price": 66.433998, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.970214121293241, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": { "index": 268, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 75.741128, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 14.009588885498056, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": { "index": 266, "date": "2026-06-05", "price": 66.433998, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.970214121293241, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bullish structure weakens below", "trend": 63.045434, "fair_value": 40.456195, "trend_gap": 5.749133236199153, "fair_value_gap": 64.79552760708218 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 268, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 75.741128, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 14.009588885498056, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 275, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 66.67, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -11.976489180356543, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": -11.976489180356543, "weeks": 7, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "5.7% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "negative", "value": "Falling", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "negative", "value": "Falling Stack", "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are weakening together." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "positive", "value": "+7.0", "explanation": "Outperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "positive", "value": "+8.4", "explanation": "Participation is supportive" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "negative", "value": "-0.8", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is weak" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "positive", "value": "+22.7", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive" } ], "positive": 4, "negative": 3, "neutral": 0, "observed": 7, "agreement": 57, "direction": "constructive", "scenario_direction": "bullish" }, "evidence": { "score": 100, "history_score": 100, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 276, "confirmed_pivots": 7 }, "volume_ratio": 72.03902091344725, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 64, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 63, "positive_rate": 73.0, "median_return": 3.84, "bar_width": 19.2, "average_return": 3.82, "best_return": 18.43, "worst_return": -9.88 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 60, "positive_rate": 76.7, "median_return": 8.3, "bar_width": 41.5, "average_return": 9.43, "best_return": 40.95, "worst_return": -9.7 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 51, "positive_rate": 84.3, "median_return": 7.68, "bar_width": 38.4, "average_return": 15.36, "best_return": 54.19, "worst_return": -7.27 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "watching", "label": "Watching", "now": "Possible Wave 2 trough is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is falling stack.", "next": "A weekly close through 75.74, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 66.43; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 16, "constructive_count": 3, "constructive_percent": 19, "rising_cycle_count": 3, "rising_cycle_percent": 19, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 92, "positive_rate": 53.3, "median_return": 0.44, "average_return": -0.53, "median_excess_return": -1.26, "excess_observations": 92, "p10": -6.98, "p90": 6.45 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 56, "positive_rate": 60.7, "median_return": 3.61, "average_return": 1.06, "median_excess_return": -0.39, "excess_observations": 56, "p10": -11.81, "p90": 12.25 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 42, "positive_rate": 66.7, "median_return": 3.64, "average_return": 4.72, "median_excess_return": -3.8, "excess_observations": 42, "p10": -19.24, "p90": 27.86 } ], "benchmark": "SPY", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": true, "options_direction": "mixed", "options_conviction": 30.41, "expected_move": 6.10731033, "invalidation_distance": 0.353985300734962, "collision": true, "flags": [ "The options-implied move is large enough to cross the Elliott invalidation level in one event-sized move." ], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 34, "label": "Watch", "tone": "watch", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 5.7% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 73% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 11, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 73, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 15, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 100/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 8, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 80, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has low recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling.", "Hurst risk alignment is 100/100.", "The primary interpretation has low recent stability." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down." } }, "chart": { "dates": [ "2023-08-18", "2023-08-25", "2023-09-01", "2023-09-08", "2023-09-15", "2023-09-22", "2023-09-29", "2023-10-06", "2023-10-13", "2023-10-20", "2023-10-27", "2023-11-03", "2023-11-10", "2023-11-17", "2023-11-24", "2023-12-01", "2023-12-08", "2023-12-15", "2023-12-22", "2023-12-29", "2024-01-05", "2024-01-12", "2024-01-19", "2024-01-26", "2024-02-02", "2024-02-09", "2024-02-16", "2024-02-23", "2024-03-01", "2024-03-08", "2024-03-15", "2024-03-22", "2024-03-29", "2024-04-05", "2024-04-12", "2024-04-19", "2024-04-26", "2024-05-03", "2024-05-10", "2024-05-17", "2024-05-24", "2024-05-31", "2024-06-07", "2024-06-14", "2024-06-21", "2024-06-28", "2024-07-05", "2024-07-12", "2024-07-19", "2024-07-26", "2024-08-02", "2024-08-09", "2024-08-16", "2024-08-23", "2024-08-30", "2024-09-06", "2024-09-13", "2024-09-20", "2024-09-27", 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