{ "ticker": { "symbol": "7722", "name": "LINE Pay Taiwan Limited", "exchange": "TAI" }, "latest_week": "2026-08-14", "latest_close": 276.5, "latest_open": 302.0, "latest_high": 309.0, "latest_low": 276.0, "bar_count": 132, "analysis_bar_count": 132, "reversal_percent": 8.500501121832425, "model": { "version": "ewc-2.1.0", "as_of": "2026-08-14", "price_basis": "weekly OHLCV; Elliott pivots use weekly closes", "wave_method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "cycle_method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation", "repainting_policy": "only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained" }, "pivots": [ { "index": 53, "date": "2025-02-07", "price": 794.410767, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 91.34395132549473, "weeks": 6, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 71, "date": "2025-06-13", "price": 525.82428, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -33.80952249857911, "weeks": 18, "confirmed": 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"kind": "low", "move_percent": -14.60842936247981, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 130, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 301.5, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 11.666666666666666, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 131, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 276.5, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.291873963515755, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 276.5, "confirmation": 301.5, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 40 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bullish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 270.00; Wave 2 276.50.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 79% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 129, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 270.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -14.60842936247981, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 130, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 301.5, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 11.666666666666666, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 131, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 276.5, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.291873963515755, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 270.0, "confirmation": 301.5, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 20 }, { "id": "tactical-bullish-abc", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "A/B/C reset may be completing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 71, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 316.19; Wave B 301.50.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 46.19; C length 25.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.54\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 122, "date": "2026-06-12", "price": 316.19046, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 28.76447289963617, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 129, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 270.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -14.60842936247981, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 130, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 301.5, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 11.666666666666666, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 131, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 276.5, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.291873963515755, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 276.5, "confirmation": 301.5, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 40 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 13.600801794931881, "primary": { "id": "strategic-bearish-wave2", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 316.19; Wave 2 276.50.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 14% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 122, "date": "2026-06-12", "price": 316.19046, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 28.76447289963617, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 129, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 270.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -14.60842936247981, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 131, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 276.5, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 2.4074074074074074, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 316.19046, "confirmation": 270.0, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements." }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 13.6% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 8.500501121832425, "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "A/B/C reset may be completing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 71, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 316.19; Wave B 301.50.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 46.19; C length 25.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.54\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 122, "date": "2026-06-12", "price": 316.19046, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 28.76447289963617, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 129, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 270.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -14.60842936247981, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 130, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 301.5, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 11.666666666666666, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 131, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 276.5, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.291873963515755, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 276.5, "confirmation": 301.5, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 40 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 8.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 5.950350785282697, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bullish-abc", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "A/B/C reset may be completing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 71, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 316.19; Wave B 301.50.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 46.19; C length 25.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.54\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 122, "date": "2026-06-12", "price": 316.19046, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 28.76447289963617, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 129, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 270.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -14.60842936247981, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 130, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 301.5, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 11.666666666666666, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 131, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 276.5, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.291873963515755, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 276.5, "confirmation": 301.5, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 40 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 6.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 20, "changes": 5, "observations": 9, "label": "Low" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "abc_reset", "title": "A/B/C reset may be completing", "direction": "bullish", "confidence": 57, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bullish-abc", "labels": [ { "index": 122, "date": "2026-06-12", "price": 316.19046, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 28.76447289963617, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 129, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 270.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -14.60842936247981, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 130, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 301.5, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 11.666666666666666, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 131, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 276.5, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.291873963515755, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "notes": [ "Close remains below Fair Value, leaving valuation room if the turn holds.", "Market Dynamics supports the setup." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": -13.610772457354612, "fair_value_gap": -47.34123094506257, "market_activity": -59.678921, "market_dynamics": 0.50922, "relative_strength": -55.85224, "roc30": -47.0713792049272, "hurst_alignment": 50, "hurst_risk": 50 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as a/b/c reset may be completing. Price is 13.6% below its 30-week trend. 2 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": -3.225002806474917 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": 12.601046713267074 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": -32.957073883775344 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": -59.16653206267162 } ], "range": { "high_52": 685.652188, "low_52": 237.97244, "position_52": 8.606053807910916, "drawdown": -59.673431392885746 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 46.095803011321664, "average_weekly_range": 11.67174406997424, "active_drawdown": -71.47632849902664 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 129, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 270.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -14.60842936247981, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": { "index": 130, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 301.5, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 11.666666666666666, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": { "index": 129, "date": "2026-07-31", "price": 270.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -14.60842936247981, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bullish structure weakens below", "trend": 320.063054, "fair_value": 525.078738, "trend_gap": -13.610772457354612, "fair_value_gap": -47.34123094506257 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 130, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 301.5, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 11.666666666666666, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 131, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 276.5, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -8.291873963515755, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": -8.291873963515755, "weeks": 1, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "negative", "value": "13.6% below trend", "explanation": "Price remains below its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "positive", "value": "Rising", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "neutral", "value": "Mixed", "explanation": "Cycle lengths are not moving in one clear direction." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "negative", "value": "-55.9", "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "negative", "value": "-59.7", "explanation": "Participation is weak" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "positive", "value": "+0.5", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "negative", "value": "-47.1", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is negative" } ], "positive": 2, "negative": 4, "neutral": 1, "observed": 7, "agreement": 57, "direction": "defensive", "scenario_direction": "bullish" }, "evidence": { "score": 83, "history_score": 51, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 132, "confirmed_pivots": 15 }, "volume_ratio": 71.40704607035, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 18, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 17, "positive_rate": 29.4, "median_return": -4.35, "bar_width": 21.75, "average_return": -0.68, "best_return": 28.76, "worst_return": -21.05 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 8, "positive_rate": 25.0, "median_return": -43.69, "bar_width": 100.0, "average_return": -31.26, "best_return": 13.37, "worst_return": -46.14 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 6, "positive_rate": 0.0, "median_return": -43.33, "bar_width": 100.0, "average_return": -43.28, "best_return": -42.1, "worst_return": -45.31 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "watching", "label": "Watching", "now": "A/B/C reset may be completing is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is mixed.", "next": "A weekly close through 301.50, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 276.50; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 24, "constructive_count": 14, "constructive_percent": 58, "rising_cycle_count": 9, "rising_cycle_percent": 38, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 120, "positive_rate": 59.2, "median_return": 1.78, "average_return": 3.36, "median_excess_return": 2.07, "excess_observations": 120, "p10": -8.36, "p90": 15.82 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 71, "positive_rate": 62.0, "median_return": 5.95, "average_return": 8.69, "median_excess_return": 4.1, "excess_observations": 71, "p10": -15.65, "p90": 35.37 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 57, "positive_rate": 66.7, "median_return": 13.97, "average_return": 18.89, "median_excess_return": 8.61, "excess_observations": 57, "p10": -16.59, "p90": 49.08 } ], "benchmark": "^TWII", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 0.0, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 16, "label": "Contained", "tone": "contained", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 13.6% below the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 9% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is rising." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 8, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 50, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 50/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 8, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 80, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has low recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "The primary interpretation has low recent stability." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down." } }, "chart": { "dates": [ "2024-01-26", "2024-02-02", "2024-02-09", "2024-02-16", "2024-02-23", "2024-03-01", "2024-03-08", "2024-03-15", "2024-03-22", "2024-03-29", "2024-04-05", "2024-04-12", "2024-04-19", "2024-04-26", "2024-05-03", "2024-05-10", "2024-05-17", "2024-05-24", "2024-05-31", "2024-06-07", "2024-06-14", "2024-06-21", "2024-06-28", "2024-07-05", "2024-07-12", "2024-07-19", "2024-07-26", "2024-08-02", "2024-08-09", "2024-08-16", "2024-08-23", "2024-08-30", "2024-09-06", "2024-09-13", "2024-09-20", "2024-09-27", "2024-10-04", "2024-10-11", "2024-10-18", "2024-10-25", "2024-11-01", "2024-11-08", "2024-11-15", "2024-11-22", "2024-11-29", "2024-12-06", "2024-12-13", "2024-12-20", "2024-12-27", "2025-01-03", "2025-01-10", "2025-01-17", "2025-01-24", "2025-02-07", "2025-02-14", "2025-02-21", "2025-02-28", "2025-03-07", "2025-03-14", 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