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"2026-06-19", "value": -1.0503472373016596 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": -0.8930780275188037 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": -0.8006699459432657 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": -0.7770186908619908 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": -0.7882544459637941 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": -0.8188867520960865 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 909.77; Wave 2 873.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 28% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 99, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 909.766235, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 7.538279989388093, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 104, "date": "2026-05-22", "price": 858.946899, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.585977369230462, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 113, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 873.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 1.6360849566324553, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 909.766235, "confirmation": 858.946899, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 28 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bearish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 845.99; Wave B 858.95.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 63.77; C length 14.05.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave C is 0.22\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 97, "date": "2026-04-03", "price": 845.99292, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -17.39918983236677, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 99, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 909.766235, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 7.538279989388093, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 104, "date": "2026-05-22", "price": 858.946899, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.585977369230462, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 113, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 873.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 1.6360849566324553, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 873.0, "confirmation": 858.946899, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 28 }, { "id": "tactical-bullish-wave2", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 849.00; Wave 2 873.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 31% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 107, "date": "2026-06-12", "price": 849.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.679324057349748, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 108, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 884.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 4.122497055359246, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 113, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 873.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -1.244343891402715, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 849.0, "confirmation": 884.0, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 43 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 8.0, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 5.0, "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 909.77; Wave 2 873.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 28% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 99, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 909.766235, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 7.538279989388093, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 104, "date": "2026-05-22", "price": 858.946899, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.585977369230462, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 113, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 873.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 1.6360849566324553, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 909.766235, "confirmation": 858.946899, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 28 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 3.5, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bullish-wave2", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 849.00; Wave 2 873.00.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 31% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 107, "date": "2026-06-12", "price": 849.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.679324057349748, "weeks": 8, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 108, "date": "2026-06-19", "price": 884.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 4.122497055359246, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 113, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 873.0, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -1.244343891402715, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 849.0, "confirmation": 884.0, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 43 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 68, "changes": 2, "observations": 9, "label": "Moderate" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "cycle_rollover", "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest", "direction": "bearish", "confidence": 52, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bearish-wave2", "labels": [ { "index": 99, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 909.766235, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 7.538279989388093, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 104, "date": "2026-05-22", "price": 858.946899, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.585977369230462, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 113, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 873.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 1.6360849566324553, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "notes": [ "Market Activity has fallen below zero.", "30-week price rate of change is negative." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": -3.5013274376188948, "fair_value_gap": -7.6279033172943524, "market_activity": -50.226806, "market_dynamics": 0.394194, "relative_strength": -23.244914, "roc30": -13.342919968857291, "hurst_alignment": 50, "hurst_risk": 50 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as possible bearish wave 2 crest. Price is 3.5% below its 30-week trend. 2 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": -0.5694760820045558 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": -1.7821684046158226 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": -10.051023510548195 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": -6.229436232176122 } ], "range": { "high_52": 1061.870558, "low_52": 822.077944, "position_52": 21.235873428528528, "drawdown": -17.786589577898447 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 17.337140528024047, "average_weekly_range": 2.744094203261492, "active_drawdown": -17.188097785079563 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 104, "date": "2026-05-22", "price": 858.946899, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.585977369230462, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": { "index": 99, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 909.766235, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 7.538279989388093, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": { "index": 99, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 909.766235, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 7.538279989388093, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above", "trend": 904.675657, "fair_value": 945.090597, "trend_gap": -3.5013274376188948, "fair_value_gap": -7.6279033172943524 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 104, "date": "2026-05-22", "price": 858.946899, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -5.585977369230462, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 113, "date": "2026-07-24", "price": 873.0, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 1.6360849566324553, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 1.6360849566324553, "weeks": 9, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "negative", "value": "3.5% below trend", "explanation": "Price remains below its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "positive", "value": "Rising", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "neutral", "value": "Mixed", "explanation": "Cycle lengths are not moving in one clear direction." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "negative", "value": "-23.2", "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "negative", "value": "-50.2", "explanation": "Participation is weak" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "positive", "value": "+0.4", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "negative", "value": "-13.3", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is negative" } ], "positive": 2, "negative": 4, "neutral": 1, "observed": 7, "agreement": 57, "direction": "defensive", "scenario_direction": "bearish" }, "evidence": { "score": 80, "history_score": 44, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 114, "confirmed_pivots": 6 }, "volume_ratio": 40.094365992464134, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 11, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 10, "positive_rate": 40.0, "median_return": -0.74, "bar_width": 3.7, "average_return": -0.32, "best_return": 3.3, "worst_return": -3.36 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 2, "positive_rate": 100.0, "median_return": 5.99, "bar_width": 29.950000000000003, "average_return": 5.99, "best_return": 8.95, "worst_return": 3.04 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 2, "positive_rate": 100.0, "median_return": 5.33, "bar_width": 26.65, "average_return": 5.33, "best_return": 6.41, "worst_return": 4.25 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "watching", "label": "Watching", "now": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is mixed.", "next": "A weekly close through 858.95, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 909.77; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 24, "constructive_count": 13, "constructive_percent": 54, "rising_cycle_count": 7, "rising_cycle_percent": 29, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 461, "positive_rate": 61.2, "median_return": 1.42, "average_return": 56.53, "median_excess_return": -0.06, "excess_observations": 461, "p10": -9.3, "p90": 8.11 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 180, "positive_rate": 58.9, "median_return": 2.57, "average_return": 152.1, "median_excess_return": 0.18, "excess_observations": 180, "p10": -18.21, "p90": 13.13 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 115, "positive_rate": 69.6, "median_return": 7.02, "average_return": 200.03, "median_excess_return": 0.89, "excess_observations": 115, "p10": -21.76, "p90": 26.39 } ], "benchmark": "^N225", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 4.21148167239405, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 11, "label": "Contained", "tone": "contained", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 3.5% below the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 21% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is rising." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 8, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 50, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 50/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 3, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 32, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has moderate recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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