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    "risk_score": 45,
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        "label": "10w",
        "estimated_period": 8,
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        "timing_available": false,
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  "structure": {
    "primary": {
      "id": "primary-bullish-wave2",
      "degree": "primary",
      "pattern": "impulse",
      "stage": "wave2",
      "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough",
      "direction": "bullish",
      "score": 63,
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        {
          "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Origin 4.95; Wave 2 6.54.",
          "hard": true
        }
      ],
      "guidelines": [
        {
          "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Retraced 68% of Wave 1.",
          "hard": false
        }
      ],
      "labels": [
        {
          "index": 254,
          "date": "2026-05-08",
          "price": 4.95,
          "kind": "low",
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          "weeks": 9,
          "confirmed": true,
          "label": "0"
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        {
          "index": 262,
          "date": "2026-07-03",
          "price": 9.99,
          "kind": "high",
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          "weeks": 8,
          "confirmed": true,
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        },
        {
          "index": 275,
          "date": "2026-10-02",
          "price": 6.54,
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          "weeks": 13,
          "confirmed": false,
          "label": "2"
        }
      ],
      "invalidation": 4.95,
      "confirmation": 9.99,
      "forming": true,
      "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
      "evidence_weight": 20
    },
    "alternates": [
      {
        "id": "strategic-bullish-abc",
        "degree": "strategic",
        "pattern": "correction",
        "stage": "wave_c",
        "title": "A/B/C reset may be completing",
        "direction": "bullish",
        "score": 76,
        "rules": [
          {
            "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Origin 10.75; Wave B 9.99.",
            "hard": true
          },
          {
            "label": "Wave C moves in the direction of Wave A",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "A length 5.80; C length 3.45.",
            "hard": true
          }
        ],
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          {
            "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Wave C is 0.59\u00d7 Wave A.",
            "hard": false
          }
        ],
        "labels": [
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            "index": 162,
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            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "5"
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            "index": 254,
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            "price": 4.95,
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            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "A"
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            "date": "2026-07-03",
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            "kind": "high",
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            "label": "B"
          },
          {
            "index": 275,
            "date": "2026-10-02",
            "price": 6.54,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -34.53453453453454,
            "weeks": 13,
            "confirmed": false,
            "label": "C"
          }
        ],
        "invalidation": 6.54,
        "confirmation": 9.99,
        "forming": true,
        "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.",
        "evidence_weight": 59
      },
      {
        "id": "tactical-bearish-wave3",
        "degree": "tactical",
        "pattern": "impulse",
        "stage": "wave3",
        "title": "Possible bearish Wave 3 declining",
        "direction": "bearish",
        "score": 64,
        "rules": [
          {
            "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Origin 9.99; Wave 2 7.18.",
            "hard": true
          },
          {
            "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Wave 1 6.78; Wave 3 6.54.",
            "hard": true
          }
        ],
        "guidelines": [
          {
            "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
            "passed": false,
            "detail": "Retraced 12% of Wave 1.",
            "hard": false
          },
          {
            "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible",
            "passed": false,
            "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.20\u00d7 Wave 1.",
            "hard": false
          }
        ],
        "labels": [
          {
            "index": 262,
            "date": "2026-07-03",
            "price": 9.99,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 65.67164179104478,
            "weeks": 2,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "0"
          },
          {
            "index": 266,
            "date": "2026-07-31",
            "price": 6.78,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -32.132132132132135,
            "weeks": 4,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "1"
          },
          {
            "index": 269,
            "date": "2026-08-21",
            "price": 7.18,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 5.899705014749254,
            "weeks": 3,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "2"
          },
          {
            "index": 275,
            "date": "2026-10-02",
            "price": 6.54,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -8.913649025069635,
            "weeks": 6,
            "confirmed": false,
            "label": "3"
          }
        ],
        "invalidation": 7.18,
        "confirmation": 6.54,
        "forming": true,
        "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
        "evidence_weight": 22
      }
    ],
    "degrees": [
      {
        "key": "strategic",
        "label": "Strategic",
        "reversal_percent": 10.162094428283751,
        "primary": {
          "id": "strategic-bullish-abc",
          "degree": "strategic",
          "pattern": "correction",
          "stage": "wave_c",
          "title": "A/B/C reset may be completing",
          "direction": "bullish",
          "score": 76,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 10.75; Wave B 9.99.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave C moves in the direction of Wave A",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "A length 5.80; C length 3.45.",
              "hard": true
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave C is 0.59\u00d7 Wave A.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 162,
              "date": "2024-07-19",
              "price": 10.75,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 37.820512820512825,
              "weeks": 13,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "5"
            },
            {
              "index": 254,
              "date": "2026-05-08",
              "price": 4.95,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -53.95348837209303,
              "weeks": 92,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "A"
            },
            {
              "index": 262,
              "date": "2026-07-03",
              "price": 9.99,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 101.81818181818181,
              "weeks": 8,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "B"
            },
            {
              "index": 275,
              "date": "2026-10-02",
              "price": 6.54,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -34.53453453453454,
              "weeks": 13,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "C"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 6.54,
          "confirmation": 9.99,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.",
          "evidence_weight": 59
        },
        "candidate_count": 2,
        "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 10.2% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "primary",
        "label": "Primary",
        "reversal_percent": 6.351309017677345,
        "primary": {
          "id": "primary-bullish-wave2",
          "degree": "primary",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave2",
          "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough",
          "direction": "bullish",
          "score": 63,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 4.95; Wave 2 6.54.",
              "hard": true
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 68% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 254,
              "date": "2026-05-08",
              "price": 4.95,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -13.157894736842104,
              "weeks": 9,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 262,
              "date": "2026-07-03",
              "price": 9.99,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 101.81818181818181,
              "weeks": 8,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 275,
              "date": "2026-10-02",
              "price": 6.54,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -34.53453453453454,
              "weeks": 13,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "2"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 4.95,
          "confirmation": 9.99,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
          "evidence_weight": 20
        },
        "candidate_count": 1,
        "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 6.4% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "tactical",
        "label": "Tactical",
        "reversal_percent": 4.445916312374141,
        "primary": {
          "id": "tactical-bearish-wave3",
          "degree": "tactical",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave3",
          "title": "Possible bearish Wave 3 declining",
          "direction": "bearish",
          "score": 64,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 9.99; Wave 2 7.18.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 1 6.78; Wave 3 6.54.",
              "hard": true
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": false,
              "detail": "Retraced 12% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible",
              "passed": false,
              "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.20\u00d7 Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 262,
              "date": "2026-07-03",
              "price": 9.99,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 65.67164179104478,
              "weeks": 2,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 266,
              "date": "2026-07-31",
              "price": 6.78,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -32.132132132132135,
              "weeks": 4,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 269,
              "date": "2026-08-21",
              "price": 7.18,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 5.899705014749254,
              "weeks": 3,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "2"
            },
            {
              "index": 275,
              "date": "2026-10-02",
              "price": 6.54,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -8.913649025069635,
              "weeks": 6,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "3"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 7.18,
          "confirmation": 6.54,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
          "evidence_weight": 22
        },
        "candidate_count": 2,
        "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 4.4% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      }
    ],
    "stability": {
      "score": 100,
      "changes": 0,
      "observations": 9,
      "label": "High"
    },
    "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration",
    "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities."
  },
  "scenario": {
    "setup": "wave_hurst_confluence",
    "title": "Wave + Hurst trough confluence",
    "direction": "bullish",
    "confidence": 95,
    "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.",
    "candidate_id": "primary-bullish-wave2",
    "labels": [
      {
        "index": 254,
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "price": 4.95,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -13.157894736842104,
        "weeks": 9,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "0"
      },
      {
        "index": 262,
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "price": 9.99,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 101.81818181818181,
        "weeks": 8,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "1"
      },
      {
        "index": 275,
        "date": "2026-10-02",
        "price": 6.54,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -34.53453453453454,
        "weeks": 13,
        "confirmed": false,
        "label": "2"
      }
    ],
    "notes": [
      "Hurst rhythm shows a trough cluster.",
      "Hurst cycle alignment is strong.",
      "Price is above the 30-week trend line.",
      "Close remains below Fair Value, leaving valuation room if the turn holds.",
      "Market Activity is positive."
    ],
    "metrics": {
      "trend_gap": 3.181704085285509,
      "fair_value_gap": -7.9679233032254295,
      "market_activity": 6.378871,
      "market_dynamics": -0.586232,
      "relative_strength": -18.565778,
      "roc30": 14.736842105263156,
      "hurst_alignment": 67,
      "hurst_risk": 45
    }
  },
  "detail": {
    "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as wave + hurst trough confluence. Price is 3.2% above its 30-week trend. 4 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.",
    "returns": [
      {
        "weeks": 4,
        "label": "4-week return",
        "value": -2.533532041728762
      },
      {
        "weeks": 13,
        "label": "13-week return",
        "value": -34.53453453453454
      },
      {
        "weeks": 26,
        "label": "26-week return",
        "value": 27.734375
      },
      {
        "weeks": 52,
        "label": "52-week return",
        "value": 14.335664335664342
      }
    ],
    "range": {
      "high_52": 9.99,
      "low_52": 4.9,
      "position_52": 32.22003929273084,
      "drawdown": -34.53453453453454
    },
    "risk": {
      "annualised_volatility": 94.06551750518776,
      "average_weekly_range": 4.1125709811455895,
      "active_drawdown": -51.55555555555556
    },
    "levels": {
      "support": {
        "index": 254,
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "price": 4.95,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -13.157894736842104,
        "weeks": 9,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "resistance": {
        "index": 262,
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "price": 9.99,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 101.81818181818181,
        "weeks": 8,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "decisive": {
        "index": 254,
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "price": 4.95,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -13.157894736842104,
        "weeks": 9,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "decisive_label": "Bullish structure weakens below",
      "trend": 6.338333,
      "fair_value": 7.106218,
      "trend_gap": 3.181704085285509,
      "fair_value_gap": -7.9679233032254295
    },
    "active_swing": {
      "from": {
        "index": 262,
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "price": 9.99,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 101.81818181818181,
        "weeks": 8,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "to": {
        "index": 275,
        "date": "2026-10-02",
        "price": 6.54,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -34.53453453453454,
        "weeks": 13,
        "confirmed": false
      },
      "move_percent": -34.53453453453454,
      "weeks": 13,
      "status": "Forming"
    },
    "confirmation": {
      "rows": [
        {
          "label": "Trend",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "3.2% above trend",
          "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle pressure",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "Falling",
          "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle alignment",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "Trough Cluster",
          "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are improving together."
        },
        {
          "label": "Relative strength",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "-18.6",
          "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark"
        },
        {
          "label": "Market activity",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+6.4",
          "explanation": "Participation is supportive"
        },
        {
          "label": "Market dynamics",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "-0.6",
          "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is weak"
        },
        {
          "label": "30-week momentum",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+14.7",
          "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive"
        }
      ],
      "positive": 4,
      "negative": 3,
      "neutral": 0,
      "observed": 7,
      "agreement": 57,
      "direction": "constructive",
      "scenario_direction": "bullish"
    },
    "evidence": {
      "score": 100,
      "history_score": 100,
      "indicator_coverage": 100,
      "structure_score": 100,
      "weekly_observations": 276,
      "confirmed_pivots": 27
    },
    "volume_ratio": 44.9027266136034,
    "historical": {
      "available": true,
      "matches": 28,
      "horizons": [
        {
          "weeks": 4,
          "observations": 27,
          "positive_rate": 33.3,
          "median_return": -2.57,
          "bar_width": 12.85,
          "average_return": -0.75,
          "best_return": 19.71,
          "worst_return": -9.89
        },
        {
          "weeks": 13,
          "observations": 23,
          "positive_rate": 30.4,
          "median_return": -4.89,
          "bar_width": 24.45,
          "average_return": 0.97,
          "best_return": 37.82,
          "worst_return": -19.93
        },
        {
          "weeks": 26,
          "observations": 23,
          "positive_rate": 39.1,
          "median_return": -2.82,
          "bar_width": 14.1,
          "average_return": -7.95,
          "best_return": 14.86,
          "worst_return": -24.53
        }
      ],
      "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast."
    },
    "lifecycle": {
      "state": "setup",
      "label": "Setup in timing window",
      "now": "Possible Wave 2 trough is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is trough cluster.",
      "next": "A weekly close above 9.99, with a cycle-price cross and relative strength in the same direction.",
      "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 4.95; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.",
      "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.",
      "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation."
    },
    "peer_evidence": {
      "available": true,
      "peers": 24,
      "constructive_count": 17,
      "constructive_percent": 71,
      "rising_cycle_count": 6,
      "rising_cycle_percent": 25,
      "horizons": [
        {
          "weeks": 4,
          "observations": 169,
          "positive_rate": 50.3,
          "median_return": 0.2,
          "average_return": 0.11,
          "median_excess_return": -2.42,
          "excess_observations": 169,
          "p10": -9.72,
          "p90": 8.79
        },
        {
          "weeks": 13,
          "observations": 101,
          "positive_rate": 48.5,
          "median_return": -0.98,
          "average_return": 5.26,
          "median_excess_return": -4.6,
          "excess_observations": 101,
          "p10": -13.36,
          "p90": 23.31
        },
        {
          "weeks": 26,
          "observations": 83,
          "positive_rate": 55.4,
          "median_return": 2.42,
          "average_return": 8.99,
          "median_excess_return": -3.64,
          "excess_observations": 83,
          "p10": -19.51,
          "p90": 41.97
        }
      ],
      "benchmark": "^TWII",
      "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count."
    },
    "event_positioning": {
      "earnings_date": null,
      "earnings_weeks": null,
      "options_available": false,
      "options_direction": null,
      "options_conviction": null,
      "expected_move": null,
      "invalidation_distance": 24.31192660550459,
      "collision": false,
      "flags": [],
      "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure."
    },
    "downside_vulnerability": {
      "score": 18,
      "label": "Contained",
      "tone": "contained",
      "components": [
        {
          "key": "wave",
          "label": "Wave maturity",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 25,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5."
        },
        {
          "key": "extension",
          "label": "Trend extension",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 20,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Price is 3.2% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability."
        },
        {
          "key": "range",
          "label": "Range position",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Price is 32% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range."
        },
        {
          "key": "cycle",
          "label": "Cycle rollover",
          "score": 11,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 73,
          "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling."
        },
        {
          "key": "hurst",
          "label": "Multi-cycle risk",
          "score": 7,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 45,
          "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 45/100."
        },
        {
          "key": "stability",
          "label": "Count instability",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "The primary interpretation has high recent stability."
        },
        {
          "key": "event",
          "label": "Event proximity",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available."
        }
      ],
      "warnings": [
        "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling."
      ],
      "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down."
    }
  },
  "chart": {
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      "2025-01-03",
      "2025-01-10",
      "2025-01-17",
      "2025-01-24",
      "2025-02-07",
      "2025-02-14",
      "2025-02-21",
      "2025-02-28",
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