{ "ticker": { "symbol": "WRDU", "name": "Amundi Core MSCI World UCITS ETF Acc", "exchange": "AMS" }, "latest_week": "2026-08-07", "latest_close": 186.729996, "latest_open": 181.429993, "latest_high": 186.809998, "latest_low": 181.429993, "bar_count": 134, "analysis_bar_count": 134, "reversal_percent": 5.0, "model": { "version": "ewc-2.1.0", "as_of": "2026-08-07", "price_basis": "weekly OHLCV; Elliott pivots use weekly closes", "wave_method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "cycle_method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation", "repainting_policy": "only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained" }, "pivots": [ { "index": 62, "date": "2025-03-28", "price": 133.029999, "kind": "high", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 63, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 122.997002, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.54190564189962, "weeks": 1, 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1.2569224576787061 }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": 1.3600666991509796 }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": 1.4652963507130812 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": 1.566316933485184 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": 1.500926904571226 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": 1.3843949636003876 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": 1.3028972029303745 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": 1.1232550064460423 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": 1.081880337177453 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": 1.0532104577001915 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": 0.9345013104004896 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": 0.8166052787171687 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": 0.7457341195620576 }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "value": 0.9389007012885009 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 71, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 123.00; Wave B 155.36.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 45.51; C length 31.37.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.69\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 63, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 122.997002, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.54190564189962, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 110, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 168.505997, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 37.000084766293746, "weeks": 47, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 114, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 155.358994, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.802097987052658, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 133, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 186.729996, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 20.19258827075052, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 186.729996, "confirmation": 155.358994, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 54 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bullish-wave3", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave3", "title": "Possible Wave 3 advancing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 69, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 123.00; Wave 2 155.36.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 168.51; Wave 3 186.73.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 29% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.69\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 63, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 122.997002, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.54190564189962, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 110, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 168.505997, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 37.000084766293746, "weeks": 47, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 114, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 155.358994, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.802097987052658, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 133, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 186.729996, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 20.19258827075052, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": false, "label": "3" } ], "invalidation": 155.358994, "confirmation": 186.729996, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 46 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 8.0, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 5.0, "primary": { "id": "primary-bearish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 71, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 123.00; Wave B 155.36.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 45.51; C length 31.37.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.69\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 63, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 122.997002, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.54190564189962, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 110, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 168.505997, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 37.000084766293746, "weeks": 47, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 114, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 155.358994, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.802097987052658, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 133, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 186.729996, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 20.19258827075052, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 186.729996, "confirmation": 155.358994, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 54 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 3.5, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 100, "changes": 0, "observations": 9, "label": "High" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "cycle_rollover", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "confidence": 56, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bearish-abc", "labels": [ { "index": 63, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 122.997002, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.54190564189962, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 110, "date": "2026-02-27", "price": 168.505997, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 37.000084766293746, "weeks": 47, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 114, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 155.358994, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.802097987052658, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 133, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 186.729996, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 20.19258827075052, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "notes": [ "Evidence is mixed; treat the count as a scenario rather than a signal." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": 8.426863045354526, "fair_value_gap": 28.106204017637868, "market_activity": 43.77682, "market_dynamics": 0.38993, "relative_strength": -0.097229, "roc30": 11.95246188882831, "hurst_alignment": 50, "hurst_risk": 50 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as bearish a/b/c rebound may be completing. Price is 8.4% above its 30-week trend. 4 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": 3.051875878342318 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": 5.721761142609875 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 11.743439881091534 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 23.05593124494021 } ], "range": { "high_52": 186.809998, "low_52": 151.660004, "position_52": 99.77239825417891, "drawdown": -0.042825331008251206 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 13.38364951070993, "average_weekly_range": 1.3679568147461858, "active_drawdown": 0.0 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 114, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 155.358994, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.802097987052658, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": null, "decisive": null, "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above", "trend": 172.217466, "fair_value": 145.761868, "trend_gap": 8.426863045354526, "fair_value_gap": 28.106204017637868 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 114, "date": "2026-03-27", "price": 155.358994, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -7.802097987052658, "weeks": 4, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 133, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 186.729996, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 20.19258827075052, "weeks": 19, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": 20.19258827075052, "weeks": 19, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "8.4% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "negative", "value": "Cresting", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "neutral", "value": "Mixed", "explanation": "Cycle lengths are not moving in one clear direction." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "negative", "value": "-0.1", "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "positive", "value": "+43.8", "explanation": "Participation is supportive" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "positive", "value": "+0.4", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "positive", "value": "+12.0", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive" } ], "positive": 4, "negative": 2, "neutral": 1, "observed": 7, "agreement": 57, "direction": "constructive", "scenario_direction": "bearish" }, "evidence": { "score": 77, "history_score": 52, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 67, "weekly_observations": 134, "confirmed_pivots": 4 }, "volume_ratio": 143.04815929613338, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 33, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 32, "positive_rate": 71.9, "median_return": 0.8, "bar_width": 4.0, "average_return": 0.39, "best_return": 4.63, "worst_return": -7.8 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 28, "positive_rate": 89.3, "median_return": 4.3, "bar_width": 21.5, "average_return": 4.47, "best_return": 11.2, "worst_return": -1.14 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 22, "positive_rate": 90.9, "median_return": 8.08, "bar_width": 40.4, "average_return": 7.27, "best_return": 14.63, "worst_return": -1.28 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "watching", "label": "Watching", "now": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is mixed.", "next": "A weekly close through 155.36, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 186.73; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 17, "constructive_count": 7, "constructive_percent": 41, "rising_cycle_count": 9, "rising_cycle_percent": 53, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 260, "positive_rate": 50.4, "median_return": 0.11, "average_return": -0.48, "median_excess_return": -0.51, "excess_observations": 260, "p10": -14.22, "p90": 9.57 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 96, "positive_rate": 55.2, "median_return": 1.53, "average_return": -1.35, "median_excess_return": -0.84, "excess_observations": 96, "p10": -31.75, "p90": 15.6 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 57, "positive_rate": 43.9, "median_return": 0.0, "average_return": -5.25, "median_excess_return": -4.94, "excess_observations": 57, "p10": -61.94, "p90": 24.04 } ], "benchmark": "^AEX", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 0.0, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 42, "label": "Watch", "tone": "watch", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 4, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 19, "explanation": "Price is 8.4% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 15, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 99, "explanation": "Price is 100% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 15, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 100, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 8, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 50, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 50/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has high recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "Price is 100% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range.", "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down." } }, "chart": { "dates": [ "2024-01-19", "2024-01-26", "2024-02-02", "2024-02-09", "2024-02-16", "2024-02-23", "2024-03-01", "2024-03-08", "2024-03-15", "2024-03-22", "2024-03-29", "2024-04-05", "2024-04-12", "2024-04-19", "2024-04-26", "2024-05-03", "2024-05-10", "2024-05-17", "2024-05-24", "2024-05-31", "2024-06-07", "2024-06-14", "2024-06-21", "2024-06-28", "2024-07-05", "2024-07-12", "2024-07-19", "2024-07-26", "2024-08-02", "2024-08-09", "2024-08-16", "2024-08-23", "2024-08-30", "2024-09-06", "2024-09-13", "2024-09-20", "2024-09-27", "2024-10-04", "2024-10-11", "2024-10-18", "2024-10-25", "2024-11-01", "2024-11-08", "2024-11-15", "2024-11-22", "2024-11-29", "2024-12-06", "2024-12-13", "2024-12-20", "2024-12-27", "2025-01-03", "2025-01-10", "2025-01-17", "2025-01-24", "2025-01-31", "2025-02-07", "2025-02-14", "2025-02-21", "2025-02-28", 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