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        "label": "10w",
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    ]
  },
  "structure": {
    "primary": {
      "id": "primary-bearish-wave5",
      "degree": "primary",
      "pattern": "impulse",
      "stage": "wave5",
      "title": "Five-wave decline mature",
      "direction": "bearish",
      "score": 95,
      "rules": [
        {
          "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Origin 13.50; Wave 2 12.81.",
          "hard": true
        },
        {
          "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Wave 1 10.74; Wave 3 7.29.",
          "hard": true
        },
        {
          "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 10.74; Wave 4 9.62.",
          "hard": true
        },
        {
          "label": "Wave 3 is not the shortest motive wave",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Motive lengths: 2.76, 5.52, 1.19.",
          "hard": true
        },
        {
          "label": "Wave 5 makes motive progress",
          "passed": false,
          "detail": "Wave 3 7.29; Wave 5 8.43.",
          "hard": false
        }
      ],
      "guidelines": [
        {
          "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Retraced 75% of Wave 1.",
          "hard": false
        },
        {
          "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Wave 3 is 2.00\u00d7 Wave 1.",
          "hard": false
        },
        {
          "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Retraced 42% of Wave 3.",
          "hard": false
        },
        {
          "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 5w; Wave 4 lasted 6w.",
          "hard": false
        }
      ],
      "labels": [
        {
          "index": 243,
          "date": "2026-02-27",
          "price": 13.5,
          "kind": "high",
          "move_percent": 84.00304763566307,
          "weeks": 44,
          "confirmed": true,
          "label": "0"
        },
        {
          "index": 248,
          "date": "2026-04-03",
          "price": 10.74,
          "kind": "low",
          "move_percent": -20.444444444444443,
          "weeks": 5,
          "confirmed": true,
          "label": "1"
        },
        {
          "index": 253,
          "date": "2026-05-08",
          "price": 12.81,
          "kind": "high",
          "move_percent": 19.273743016759777,
          "weeks": 5,
          "confirmed": true,
          "label": "2"
        },
        {
          "index": 263,
          "date": "2026-07-17",
          "price": 7.294574,
          "kind": "low",
          "move_percent": -43.05562841530055,
          "weeks": 10,
          "confirmed": true,
          "label": "3"
        },
        {
          "index": 269,
          "date": "2026-08-28",
          "price": 9.62,
          "kind": "high",
          "move_percent": 31.87884583801603,
          "weeks": 6,
          "confirmed": true,
          "label": "4"
        },
        {
          "index": 275,
          "date": "2026-10-09",
          "price": 8.43,
          "kind": "low",
          "move_percent": -12.370062370062366,
          "weeks": 6,
          "confirmed": false,
          "label": "5"
        }
      ],
      "invalidation": 9.62,
      "confirmation": 8.43,
      "forming": true,
      "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
      "evidence_weight": 90
    },
    "alternates": [
      {
        "id": "primary-bullish-wave2",
        "degree": "primary",
        "pattern": "impulse",
        "stage": "wave2",
        "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough",
        "direction": "bullish",
        "score": 63,
        "rules": [
          {
            "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Origin 7.29; Wave 2 8.43.",
            "hard": true
          }
        ],
        "guidelines": [
          {
            "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Retraced 51% of Wave 1.",
            "hard": false
          }
        ],
        "labels": [
          {
            "index": 263,
            "date": "2026-07-17",
            "price": 7.294574,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -43.05562841530055,
            "weeks": 10,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "0"
          },
          {
            "index": 269,
            "date": "2026-08-28",
            "price": 9.62,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 31.87884583801603,
            "weeks": 6,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "1"
          },
          {
            "index": 275,
            "date": "2026-10-09",
            "price": 8.43,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -12.370062370062366,
            "weeks": 6,
            "confirmed": false,
            "label": "2"
          }
        ],
        "invalidation": 7.294574,
        "confirmation": 9.62,
        "forming": true,
        "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
        "evidence_weight": 6
      },
      {
        "id": "primary-bullish-abc",
        "degree": "primary",
        "pattern": "correction",
        "stage": "wave_c",
        "title": "A/B/C reset may be completing",
        "direction": "bullish",
        "score": 58,
        "rules": [
          {
            "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Origin 12.81; Wave B 9.62.",
            "hard": true
          },
          {
            "label": "Wave C moves in the direction of Wave A",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "A length 5.52; C length 1.19.",
            "hard": true
          }
        ],
        "guidelines": [
          {
            "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A",
            "passed": false,
            "detail": "Wave C is 0.22\u00d7 Wave A.",
            "hard": false
          }
        ],
        "labels": [
          {
            "index": 253,
            "date": "2026-05-08",
            "price": 12.81,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 19.273743016759777,
            "weeks": 5,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "5"
          },
          {
            "index": 263,
            "date": "2026-07-17",
            "price": 7.294574,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -43.05562841530055,
            "weeks": 10,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "A"
          },
          {
            "index": 269,
            "date": "2026-08-28",
            "price": 9.62,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 31.87884583801603,
            "weeks": 6,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "B"
          },
          {
            "index": 275,
            "date": "2026-10-09",
            "price": 8.43,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -12.370062370062366,
            "weeks": 6,
            "confirmed": false,
            "label": "C"
          }
        ],
        "invalidation": 8.43,
        "confirmation": 9.62,
        "forming": true,
        "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.",
        "evidence_weight": 4
      }
    ],
    "degrees": [
      {
        "key": "strategic",
        "label": "Strategic",
        "reversal_percent": 13.019524569413385,
        "primary": {
          "id": "strategic-bullish-wave2",
          "degree": "strategic",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave2",
          "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough",
          "direction": "bullish",
          "score": 58,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 7.29; Wave 2 8.43.",
              "hard": true
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": false,
              "detail": "Retraced 5% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 263,
              "date": "2026-07-17",
              "price": 7.294574,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -39.86336356141798,
              "weeks": 9,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 265,
              "date": "2026-07-31",
              "price": 8.489122,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 16.375843195229773,
              "weeks": 2,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 275,
              "date": "2026-10-09",
              "price": 8.43,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -0.696444225916418,
              "weeks": 10,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "2"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 7.294574,
          "confirmation": 8.489122,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements."
        },
        "candidate_count": 2,
        "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 13.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "primary",
        "label": "Primary",
        "reversal_percent": 8.137202855883364,
        "primary": {
          "id": "primary-bearish-wave5",
          "degree": "primary",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave5",
          "title": "Five-wave decline mature",
          "direction": "bearish",
          "score": 95,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 13.50; Wave 2 12.81.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 1 10.74; Wave 3 7.29.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 10.74; Wave 4 9.62.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 is not the shortest motive wave",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Motive lengths: 2.76, 5.52, 1.19.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 5 makes motive progress",
              "passed": false,
              "detail": "Wave 3 7.29; Wave 5 8.43.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 75% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 3 is 2.00\u00d7 Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 42% of Wave 3.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 5w; Wave 4 lasted 6w.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 243,
              "date": "2026-02-27",
              "price": 13.5,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 84.00304763566307,
              "weeks": 44,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 248,
              "date": "2026-04-03",
              "price": 10.74,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -20.444444444444443,
              "weeks": 5,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 253,
              "date": "2026-05-08",
              "price": 12.81,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 19.273743016759777,
              "weeks": 5,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "2"
            },
            {
              "index": 263,
              "date": "2026-07-17",
              "price": 7.294574,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -43.05562841530055,
              "weeks": 10,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "3"
            },
            {
              "index": 269,
              "date": "2026-08-28",
              "price": 9.62,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 31.87884583801603,
              "weeks": 6,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "4"
            },
            {
              "index": 275,
              "date": "2026-10-09",
              "price": 8.43,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -12.370062370062366,
              "weeks": 6,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "5"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 9.62,
          "confirmation": 8.43,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
          "evidence_weight": 90
        },
        "candidate_count": 3,
        "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 8.1% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "tactical",
        "label": "Tactical",
        "reversal_percent": 5.696041999118354,
        "primary": {
          "id": "tactical-bearish-wave5",
          "degree": "tactical",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave5",
          "title": "Five-wave decline mature",
          "direction": "bearish",
          "score": 92,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 12.81; Wave 2 11.02.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 1 10.33; Wave 3 7.29.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 10.33; Wave 4 9.62.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 is not the shortest motive wave",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Motive lengths: 2.48, 3.73, 1.19.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 5 makes motive progress",
              "passed": false,
              "detail": "Wave 3 7.29; Wave 5 8.43.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": false,
              "detail": "Retraced 28% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 3 is 1.50\u00d7 Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": false,
              "detail": "Retraced 62% of Wave 3.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 1w; Wave 4 lasted 6w.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 253,
              "date": "2026-05-08",
              "price": 12.81,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 15.301530153015312,
              "weeks": 2,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 255,
              "date": "2026-05-22",
              "price": 10.33,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -19.35987509758002,
              "weeks": 2,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 256,
              "date": "2026-05-29",
              "price": 11.02,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 6.679574056147139,
              "weeks": 1,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "2"
            },
            {
              "index": 263,
              "date": "2026-07-17",
              "price": 7.294574,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -33.806043557168785,
              "weeks": 7,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "3"
            },
            {
              "index": 269,
              "date": "2026-08-28",
              "price": 9.62,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 31.87884583801603,
              "weeks": 6,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "4"
            },
            {
              "index": 275,
              "date": "2026-10-09",
              "price": 8.43,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -12.370062370062366,
              "weeks": 6,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "5"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 9.62,
          "confirmation": 8.43,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements."
        },
        "candidate_count": 3,
        "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 5.7% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      }
    ],
    "stability": {
      "score": 84,
      "changes": 1,
      "observations": 9,
      "label": "High"
    },
    "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration",
    "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities."
  },
  "scenario": {
    "setup": "wave5_risk",
    "title": "Five-wave decline mature",
    "direction": "risk",
    "confidence": 95,
    "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.",
    "candidate_id": "primary-bearish-wave5",
    "labels": [
      {
        "index": 243,
        "date": "2026-02-27",
        "price": 13.5,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 84.00304763566307,
        "weeks": 44,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "0"
      },
      {
        "index": 248,
        "date": "2026-04-03",
        "price": 10.74,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -20.444444444444443,
        "weeks": 5,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "1"
      },
      {
        "index": 253,
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "price": 12.81,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 19.273743016759777,
        "weeks": 5,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "2"
      },
      {
        "index": 263,
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "price": 7.294574,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -43.05562841530055,
        "weeks": 10,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "3"
      },
      {
        "index": 269,
        "date": "2026-08-28",
        "price": 9.62,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 31.87884583801603,
        "weeks": 6,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "4"
      },
      {
        "index": 275,
        "date": "2026-10-09",
        "price": 8.43,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -12.370062370062366,
        "weeks": 6,
        "confirmed": false,
        "label": "5"
      }
    ],
    "notes": [
      "Hurst rhythm shows a falling stack.",
      "Hurst risk alignment is elevated.",
      "Market Activity has fallen below zero.",
      "30-week price rate of change is negative."
    ],
    "metrics": {
      "trend_gap": -13.314662223331876,
      "fair_value_gap": -1.9235434104662665,
      "market_activity": -31.094259,
      "market_dynamics": 0.414797,
      "relative_strength": -3.614517,
      "roc30": -31.351791530944624,
      "hurst_alignment": 0,
      "hurst_risk": 100
    }
  },
  "detail": {
    "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as five-wave decline mature. Price is 13.3% below its 30-week trend. 1 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.",
    "returns": [
      {
        "weeks": 4,
        "label": "4-week return",
        "value": -8.069792802617233
      },
      {
        "weeks": 13,
        "label": "13-week return",
        "value": 4.995336861907333
      },
      {
        "weeks": 26,
        "label": "26-week return",
        "value": -29.219143576826202
      },
      {
        "weeks": 52,
        "label": "52-week return",
        "value": 1.6887816646562193
      }
    ],
    "range": {
      "high_52": 14.37,
      "low_52": 7.206452,
      "position_52": 17.080195456218068,
      "drawdown": -41.33611691022965
    },
    "risk": {
      "annualised_volatility": 44.363957684473235,
      "average_weekly_range": 4.980078412375496,
      "active_drawdown": -37.55555555555556
    },
    "levels": {
      "support": {
        "index": 263,
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "price": 7.294574,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -43.05562841530055,
        "weeks": 10,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "resistance": {
        "index": 269,
        "date": "2026-08-28",
        "price": 9.62,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 31.87884583801603,
        "weeks": 6,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "decisive": {
        "index": 269,
        "date": "2026-08-28",
        "price": 9.62,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 31.87884583801603,
        "weeks": 6,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above",
      "trend": 9.724828,
      "fair_value": 8.595335,
      "trend_gap": -13.314662223331876,
      "fair_value_gap": -1.9235434104662665
    },
    "active_swing": {
      "from": {
        "index": 269,
        "date": "2026-08-28",
        "price": 9.62,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 31.87884583801603,
        "weeks": 6,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "to": {
        "index": 275,
        "date": "2026-10-09",
        "price": 8.43,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -12.370062370062366,
        "weeks": 6,
        "confirmed": false
      },
      "move_percent": -12.370062370062366,
      "weeks": 6,
      "status": "Forming"
    },
    "confirmation": {
      "rows": [
        {
          "label": "Trend",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "13.3% below trend",
          "explanation": "Price remains below its 30-week trend."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle pressure",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "Falling",
          "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle alignment",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "Falling Stack",
          "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are weakening together."
        },
        {
          "label": "Relative strength",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "-3.6",
          "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark"
        },
        {
          "label": "Market activity",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "-31.1",
          "explanation": "Participation is weak"
        },
        {
          "label": "Market dynamics",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+0.4",
          "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive"
        },
        {
          "label": "30-week momentum",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "-31.4",
          "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is negative"
        }
      ],
      "positive": 1,
      "negative": 6,
      "neutral": 0,
      "observed": 7,
      "agreement": 86,
      "direction": "defensive",
      "scenario_direction": "risk"
    },
    "evidence": {
      "score": 100,
      "history_score": 100,
      "indicator_coverage": 100,
      "structure_score": 100,
      "weekly_observations": 276,
      "confirmed_pivots": 23
    },
    "volume_ratio": 56.653743151382784,
    "historical": {
      "available": true,
      "matches": 72,
      "horizons": [
        {
          "weeks": 4,
          "observations": 71,
          "positive_rate": 66.2,
          "median_return": 2.79,
          "bar_width": 13.95,
          "average_return": 3.49,
          "best_return": 24.86,
          "worst_return": -17.85
        },
        {
          "weeks": 13,
          "observations": 66,
          "positive_rate": 78.8,
          "median_return": 5.17,
          "bar_width": 25.85,
          "average_return": 5.3,
          "best_return": 26.67,
          "worst_return": -18.15
        },
        {
          "weeks": 26,
          "observations": 63,
          "positive_rate": 71.4,
          "median_return": 7.22,
          "bar_width": 36.1,
          "average_return": 9.65,
          "best_return": 56.04,
          "worst_return": -12.31
        }
      ],
      "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast."
    },
    "lifecycle": {
      "state": "mature",
      "label": "Mature / manage risk",
      "now": "Five-wave decline mature is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is falling stack.",
      "next": "Watch for a confirmed weekly reversal, cycle rollover, or deterioration in relative strength and participation; a mature count is a risk-management state, not a fresh bullish trigger.",
      "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 9.62; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.",
      "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.",
      "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation."
    },
    "peer_evidence": {
      "available": true,
      "peers": 24,
      "constructive_count": 8,
      "constructive_percent": 33,
      "rising_cycle_count": 2,
      "rising_cycle_percent": 8,
      "horizons": [
        {
          "weeks": 4,
          "observations": 157,
          "positive_rate": 47.8,
          "median_return": -0.18,
          "average_return": -0.38,
          "median_excess_return": 0.1,
          "excess_observations": 157,
          "p10": -10.13,
          "p90": 8.99
        },
        {
          "weeks": 13,
          "observations": 97,
          "positive_rate": 54.6,
          "median_return": 0.98,
          "average_return": 1.48,
          "median_excess_return": -0.44,
          "excess_observations": 97,
          "p10": -18.87,
          "p90": 20.19
        },
        {
          "weeks": 26,
          "observations": 80,
          "positive_rate": 58.8,
          "median_return": 1.97,
          "average_return": 5.88,
          "median_excess_return": 7.06,
          "excess_observations": 80,
          "p10": -19.24,
          "p90": 24.66
        }
      ],
      "benchmark": "399001.SZ",
      "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count."
    },
    "event_positioning": {
      "earnings_date": null,
      "earnings_weeks": null,
      "options_available": false,
      "options_direction": null,
      "options_conviction": null,
      "expected_move": null,
      "invalidation_distance": 14.11625148279952,
      "collision": false,
      "flags": [],
      "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure."
    },
    "downside_vulnerability": {
      "score": 53,
      "label": "Elevated vulnerability",
      "tone": "elevated",
      "components": [
        {
          "key": "wave",
          "label": "Wave maturity",
          "score": 25,
          "maximum": 25,
          "bar_width": 100,
          "explanation": "A forming Wave 5 is mature structure: upside can continue, but reward-to-risk is usually less forgiving."
        },
        {
          "key": "extension",
          "label": "Trend extension",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 20,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Price is 13.3% below the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability."
        },
        {
          "key": "range",
          "label": "Range position",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Price is 17% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range."
        },
        {
          "key": "cycle",
          "label": "Cycle rollover",
          "score": 11,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 73,
          "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling."
        },
        {
          "key": "hurst",
          "label": "Multi-cycle risk",
          "score": 15,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 100,
          "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 100/100."
        },
        {
          "key": "stability",
          "label": "Count instability",
          "score": 2,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 16,
          "explanation": "The primary interpretation has high recent stability."
        },
        {
          "key": "event",
          "label": "Event proximity",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available."
        }
      ],
      "warnings": [
        "A forming Wave 5 is mature structure: upside can continue, but reward-to-risk is usually less forgiving.",
        "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling.",
        "Hurst risk alignment is 100/100."
      ],
      "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down."
    }
  },
  "chart": {
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