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        "label": "10w",
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      "title": "Possible bearish Wave 4 crest",
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        {
          "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Origin 112.21; Wave 2 89.77.",
          "hard": true
        },
        {
          "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Wave 1 84.16; Wave 3 83.50.",
          "hard": true
        },
        {
          "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 84.16; Wave 4 83.70.",
          "hard": true
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      ],
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        {
          "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
          "passed": false,
          "detail": "Retraced 20% of Wave 1.",
          "hard": false
        },
        {
          "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible",
          "passed": false,
          "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.22\u00d7 Wave 1.",
          "hard": false
        },
        {
          "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate",
          "passed": false,
          "detail": "Retraced 3% of Wave 3.",
          "hard": false
        },
        {
          "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 1w; Wave 4 lasted 10w.",
          "hard": false
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      ],
      "labels": [
        {
          "index": 245,
          "date": "2026-03-13",
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          "confirmed": true,
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        {
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        {
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          "date": "2026-07-31",
          "price": 83.5,
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          "weeks": 4,
          "confirmed": true,
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        {
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          "date": "2026-10-09",
          "price": 83.699997,
          "kind": "high",
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          "weeks": 10,
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      "invalidation": 84.157036,
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      "forming": true,
      "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
      "evidence_weight": 46
    },
    "alternates": [
      {
        "id": "primary-bearish-wave2",
        "degree": "primary",
        "pattern": "impulse",
        "stage": "wave2",
        "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest",
        "direction": "bearish",
        "score": 58,
        "rules": [
          {
            "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
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            "detail": "Origin 89.77; Wave 2 83.70.",
            "hard": true
          }
        ],
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            "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
            "passed": false,
            "detail": "Retraced 3% of Wave 1.",
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          }
        ],
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            "label": "1"
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            "index": 275,
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        ],
        "invalidation": 89.767509,
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        "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
        "evidence_weight": 11
      },
      {
        "id": "strategic-bearish-wave3",
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        "pattern": "impulse",
        "stage": "wave3",
        "title": "Possible bearish Wave 3 declining",
        "direction": "bearish",
        "score": 74,
        "rules": [
          {
            "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Origin 122.19; Wave 2 112.21.",
            "hard": true
          },
          {
            "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Wave 1 99.85; Wave 3 83.70.",
            "hard": true
          }
        ],
        "guidelines": [
          {
            "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Retraced 55% of Wave 1.",
            "hard": false
          },
          {
            "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Wave 3 is 1.28\u00d7 Wave 1.",
            "hard": false
          }
        ],
        "labels": [
          {
            "index": 228,
            "date": "2025-11-07",
            "price": 122.194115,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 58.686974504268264,
            "weeks": 30,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "0"
          },
          {
            "index": 244,
            "date": "2026-03-06",
            "price": 99.847328,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -18.287940462599195,
            "weeks": 16,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "1"
          },
          {
            "index": 245,
            "date": "2026-03-13",
            "price": 112.209381,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 12.380955252002327,
            "weeks": 1,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "2"
          },
          {
            "index": 275,
            "date": "2026-10-09",
            "price": 83.699997,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -25.407308859497228,
            "weeks": 30,
            "confirmed": false,
            "label": "3"
          }
        ],
        "invalidation": 112.209381,
        "confirmation": 83.699997,
        "forming": true,
        "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
        "evidence_weight": 43
      }
    ],
    "degrees": [
      {
        "key": "strategic",
        "label": "Strategic",
        "reversal_percent": 10.235942952727658,
        "primary": {
          "id": "strategic-bearish-wave3",
          "degree": "strategic",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave3",
          "title": "Possible bearish Wave 3 declining",
          "direction": "bearish",
          "score": 74,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 122.19; Wave 2 112.21.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 1 99.85; Wave 3 83.70.",
              "hard": true
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 55% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 3 is 1.28\u00d7 Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 228,
              "date": "2025-11-07",
              "price": 122.194115,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 58.686974504268264,
              "weeks": 30,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 244,
              "date": "2026-03-06",
              "price": 99.847328,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -18.287940462599195,
              "weeks": 16,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 245,
              "date": "2026-03-13",
              "price": 112.209381,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 12.380955252002327,
              "weeks": 1,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "2"
            },
            {
              "index": 275,
              "date": "2026-10-09",
              "price": 83.699997,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -25.407308859497228,
              "weeks": 30,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "3"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 112.209381,
          "confirmation": 83.699997,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
          "evidence_weight": 43
        },
        "candidate_count": 2,
        "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 10.2% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "primary",
        "label": "Primary",
        "reversal_percent": 6.397464345454786,
        "primary": {
          "id": "primary-bearish-wave4",
          "degree": "primary",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave4",
          "title": "Possible bearish Wave 4 crest",
          "direction": "bearish",
          "score": 75,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 112.21; Wave 2 89.77.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 1 84.16; Wave 3 83.50.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 84.16; Wave 4 83.70.",
              "hard": true
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": false,
              "detail": "Retraced 20% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible",
              "passed": false,
              "detail": "Wave 3 is 0.22\u00d7 Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": false,
              "detail": "Retraced 3% of Wave 3.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 1w; Wave 4 lasted 10w.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 245,
              "date": "2026-03-13",
              "price": 112.209381,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 12.380955252002327,
              "weeks": 1,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 260,
              "date": "2026-06-26",
              "price": 84.157036,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -24.99999977720222,
              "weeks": 15,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 261,
              "date": "2026-07-03",
              "price": 89.767509,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 6.6666713404687865,
              "weeks": 1,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "2"
            },
            {
              "index": 265,
              "date": "2026-07-31",
              "price": 83.5,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -6.981934855739402,
              "weeks": 4,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "3"
            },
            {
              "index": 275,
              "date": "2026-10-09",
              "price": 83.699997,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 0.23951736526945652,
              "weeks": 10,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "4"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 84.157036,
          "confirmation": 83.5,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
          "evidence_weight": 46
        },
        "candidate_count": 2,
        "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 6.4% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "tactical",
        "label": "Tactical",
        "reversal_percent": 4.47822504181835,
        "primary": {
          "id": "tactical-bearish-wave2",
          "degree": "tactical",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave2",
          "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest",
          "direction": "bearish",
          "score": 58,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 88.10; Wave 2 83.70.",
              "hard": true
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": false,
              "detail": "Retraced 23% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 268,
              "date": "2026-08-21",
              "price": 88.099998,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 5.508979640718562,
              "weeks": 3,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 269,
              "date": "2026-08-28",
              "price": 82.400002,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -6.469916151416937,
              "weeks": 1,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 275,
              "date": "2026-10-09",
              "price": 83.699997,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 1.5776637966586404,
              "weeks": 6,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "2"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 88.099998,
          "confirmation": 82.400002,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements."
        },
        "candidate_count": 1,
        "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 4.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      }
    ],
    "stability": {
      "score": 68,
      "changes": 2,
      "observations": 9,
      "label": "Moderate"
    },
    "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration",
    "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities."
  },
  "scenario": {
    "setup": "cycle_rollover",
    "title": "Possible bearish Wave 4 crest",
    "direction": "bearish",
    "confidence": 62,
    "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.",
    "candidate_id": "primary-bearish-wave4",
    "labels": [
      {
        "index": 245,
        "date": "2026-03-13",
        "price": 112.209381,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 12.380955252002327,
        "weeks": 1,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "0"
      },
      {
        "index": 260,
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "price": 84.157036,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -24.99999977720222,
        "weeks": 15,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "1"
      },
      {
        "index": 261,
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "price": 89.767509,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 6.6666713404687865,
        "weeks": 1,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "2"
      },
      {
        "index": 265,
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "price": 83.5,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -6.981934855739402,
        "weeks": 4,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "3"
      },
      {
        "index": 275,
        "date": "2026-10-09",
        "price": 83.699997,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 0.23951736526945652,
        "weeks": 10,
        "confirmed": false,
        "label": "4"
      }
    ],
    "notes": [
      "Market Activity has fallen below zero.",
      "30-week price rate of change is negative."
    ],
    "metrics": {
      "trend_gap": -5.326643338939621,
      "fair_value_gap": -7.560487719719593,
      "market_activity": -19.647638,
      "market_dynamics": 0.090638,
      "relative_strength": -39.181613,
      "roc30": -25.407308859497228,
      "hurst_alignment": 75,
      "hurst_risk": 25
    }
  },
  "detail": {
    "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as possible bearish wave 4 crest. Price is 5.3% below its 30-week trend. 3 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.",
    "returns": [
      {
        "weeks": 4,
        "label": "4-week return",
        "value": 2.3227309661590017
      },
      {
        "weeks": 13,
        "label": "13-week return",
        "value": -4.534294949415781
      },
      {
        "weeks": 26,
        "label": "26-week return",
        "value": -14.127440996829224
      },
      {
        "weeks": 52,
        "label": "52-week return",
        "value": -26.650521718557837
      }
    ],
    "range": {
      "high_52": 125.046898,
      "low_52": 81.099998,
      "position_52": 5.916228448422976,
      "drawdown": -33.065115297782114
    },
    "risk": {
      "annualised_volatility": 22.154657820022795,
      "average_weekly_range": 2.20378901389566,
      "active_drawdown": -31.502432011558003
    },
    "levels": {
      "support": {
        "index": 265,
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "price": 83.5,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -6.981934855739402,
        "weeks": 4,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "resistance": {
        "index": 261,
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "price": 89.767509,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 6.6666713404687865,
        "weeks": 1,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "decisive": {
        "index": 261,
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "price": 89.767509,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 6.6666713404687865,
        "weeks": 1,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above",
      "trend": 88.409242,
      "fair_value": 90.545693,
      "trend_gap": -5.326643338939621,
      "fair_value_gap": -7.560487719719593
    },
    "active_swing": {
      "from": {
        "index": 265,
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "price": 83.5,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -6.981934855739402,
        "weeks": 4,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "to": {
        "index": 275,
        "date": "2026-10-09",
        "price": 83.699997,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 0.23951736526945652,
        "weeks": 10,
        "confirmed": false
      },
      "move_percent": 0.23951736526945652,
      "weeks": 10,
      "status": "Forming"
    },
    "confirmation": {
      "rows": [
        {
          "label": "Trend",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "5.3% below trend",
          "explanation": "Price remains below its 30-week trend."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle pressure",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "Troughing",
          "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle alignment",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "Rising Stack",
          "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are improving together."
        },
        {
          "label": "Relative strength",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "-39.2",
          "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark"
        },
        {
          "label": "Market activity",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "-19.6",
          "explanation": "Participation is weak"
        },
        {
          "label": "Market dynamics",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+0.1",
          "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive"
        },
        {
          "label": "30-week momentum",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "-25.4",
          "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is negative"
        }
      ],
      "positive": 3,
      "negative": 4,
      "neutral": 0,
      "observed": 7,
      "agreement": 57,
      "direction": "defensive",
      "scenario_direction": "bearish"
    },
    "evidence": {
      "score": 100,
      "history_score": 100,
      "indicator_coverage": 100,
      "structure_score": 100,
      "weekly_observations": 276,
      "confirmed_pivots": 28
    },
    "volume_ratio": 78.49859801796227,
    "historical": {
      "available": true,
      "matches": 18,
      "horizons": [
        {
          "weeks": 4,
          "observations": 17,
          "positive_rate": 17.6,
          "median_return": -1.6,
          "bar_width": 8.0,
          "average_return": -2.26,
          "best_return": 4.92,
          "worst_return": -9.43
        },
        {
          "weeks": 13,
          "observations": 8,
          "positive_rate": 37.5,
          "median_return": -3.9,
          "bar_width": 19.5,
          "average_return": -0.9,
          "best_return": 16.79,
          "worst_return": -12.38
        },
        {
          "weeks": 26,
          "observations": 5,
          "positive_rate": 60.0,
          "median_return": 13.0,
          "bar_width": 65.0,
          "average_return": 9.04,
          "best_return": 32.07,
          "worst_return": -14.31
        }
      ],
      "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast."
    },
    "lifecycle": {
      "state": "watching",
      "label": "Watching",
      "now": "Possible bearish Wave 4 crest is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is rising stack.",
      "next": "A weekly close below 83.50, with a cycle-price cross and relative strength in the same direction.",
      "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 84.16; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.",
      "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.",
      "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation."
    },
    "peer_evidence": {
      "available": true,
      "peers": 23,
      "constructive_count": 16,
      "constructive_percent": 70,
      "rising_cycle_count": 12,
      "rising_cycle_percent": 52,
      "horizons": [
        {
          "weeks": 4,
          "observations": 526,
          "positive_rate": 47.1,
          "median_return": -0.65,
          "average_return": 1.16,
          "median_excess_return": -2.41,
          "excess_observations": 526,
          "p10": -11.07,
          "p90": 13.66
        },
        {
          "weeks": 13,
          "observations": 200,
          "positive_rate": 48.0,
          "median_return": -0.12,
          "average_return": 5.3,
          "median_excess_return": -4.84,
          "excess_observations": 200,
          "p10": -19.34,
          "p90": 26.08
        },
        {
          "weeks": 26,
          "observations": 113,
          "positive_rate": 51.3,
          "median_return": 0.25,
          "average_return": 10.38,
          "median_excess_return": -9.85,
          "excess_observations": 113,
          "p10": -29.82,
          "p90": 54.94
        }
      ],
      "benchmark": "^TWII",
      "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count."
    },
    "event_positioning": {
      "earnings_date": null,
      "earnings_weeks": null,
      "options_available": false,
      "options_direction": null,
      "options_conviction": null,
      "expected_move": null,
      "invalidation_distance": 0.5460442250673067,
      "collision": false,
      "flags": [],
      "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure."
    },
    "downside_vulnerability": {
      "score": 7,
      "label": "Contained",
      "tone": "contained",
      "components": [
        {
          "key": "wave",
          "label": "Wave maturity",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 25,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5."
        },
        {
          "key": "extension",
          "label": "Trend extension",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 20,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Price is 5.3% below the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability."
        },
        {
          "key": "range",
          "label": "Range position",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Price is 6% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range."
        },
        {
          "key": "cycle",
          "label": "Cycle rollover",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is troughing."
        },
        {
          "key": "hurst",
          "label": "Multi-cycle risk",
          "score": 4,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 25,
          "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 25/100."
        },
        {
          "key": "stability",
          "label": "Count instability",
          "score": 3,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 32,
          "explanation": "The primary interpretation has moderate recent stability."
        },
        {
          "key": "event",
          "label": "Event proximity",
          "score": 0,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 0,
          "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available."
        }
      ],
      "warnings": [],
      "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down."
    }
  },
  "chart": {
    "dates": [
      "2023-10-06",
      "2023-10-13",
      "2023-10-20",
      "2023-10-27",
      "2023-11-03",
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      "2023-11-17",
      "2023-11-24",
      "2023-12-01",
      "2023-12-08",
      "2023-12-15",
      "2023-12-22",
      "2023-12-29",
      "2024-01-05",
      "2024-01-12",
      "2024-01-19",
      "2024-01-26",
      "2024-02-02",
      "2024-02-09",
      "2024-02-16",
      "2024-02-23",
      "2024-03-01",
      "2024-03-08",
      "2024-03-15",
      "2024-03-22",
      "2024-03-29",
      "2024-04-05",
      "2024-04-12",
      "2024-04-19",
      "2024-04-26",
      "2024-05-03",
      "2024-05-10",
      "2024-05-17",
      "2024-05-24",
      "2024-05-31",
      "2024-06-07",
      "2024-06-14",
      "2024-06-21",
      "2024-06-28",
      "2024-07-05",
      "2024-07-12",
      "2024-07-19",
      "2024-07-26",
      "2024-08-02",
      "2024-08-09",
      "2024-08-16",
      "2024-08-23",
      "2024-08-30",
      "2024-09-06",
      "2024-09-13",
      "2024-09-20",
      "2024-09-27",
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