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"2025-10-10", "value": 0.6741040951635435 }, { "date": "2025-10-17", "value": 0.6539507221744075 }, { "date": "2025-10-24", "value": 0.746820227495268 }, { "date": "2025-10-31", "value": 0.7270985732235434 }, { "date": "2025-11-07", "value": 0.420946380776097 }, { "date": "2025-11-14", "value": 0.09096825185062606 }, { "date": "2025-11-21", "value": -0.21941368777239642 }, { "date": "2025-11-28", "value": -0.12392204383722238 }, { "date": "2025-12-05", "value": -0.010418984008028726 }, { "date": "2025-12-12", "value": 0.08319657314610251 }, { "date": "2025-12-19", "value": 0.1603271680283774 }, { "date": "2025-12-26", "value": 0.19386339095397048 }, { "date": "2026-01-02", "value": 0.21300678518842522 }, { "date": "2026-01-09", "value": 0.811692287769739 }, { "date": "2026-01-16", "value": 1.0935803713334487 }, { "date": "2026-01-23", "value": 1.0079868262025602 }, { "date": "2026-01-30", "value": 0.7867420333707869 }, { "date": "2026-02-06", "value": 1.0017381793254345 }, { "date": "2026-02-13", "value": 1.2301684004326863 }, { "date": "2026-02-20", "value": 1.5719045665978655 }, { "date": "2026-02-27", "value": 1.873861401614966 }, { "date": "2026-03-06", "value": 1.5434811203924435 }, { "date": "2026-03-13", "value": 0.8942304149557774 }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "value": 0.39304512401203573 }, { "date": "2026-03-27", "value": 0.24786227353855395 }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "value": 0.5236039375862769 }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "value": 1.0743889024768354 }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "value": 1.2037844546765928 }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "value": 1.038018877454447 }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "value": 0.863555147293943 }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "value": 0.7857419210244069 }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "value": 0.5391066230897152 }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "value": 0.5361157856160595 }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "value": 0.5867064170599752 }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "value": 0.5150926928975059 }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "value": 0.5699629389322083 }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "value": 0.782113354670505 }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "value": 0.7166414532095398 }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "value": 0.8790133723611734 }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "value": 0.5307763624388661 }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "value": 0.2250568027971081 }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "value": 0.18867242019541808 }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "value": 0.3403496502096676 }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "value": 0.5566971858230132 } ] }, "structure": { "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 18.19; Wave 2 19.02.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 14% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 87, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 18.191999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.3812271707095185, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 94, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 19.16, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 5.321026018086308, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 99, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 19.021999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -0.7202557411273443, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 18.191999, "confirmation": 19.16, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 24 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bullish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "A/B/C reset may be completing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 19.43; Wave B 19.16.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 1.24; C length 0.14.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave C is 0.11\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 82, "date": "2026-04-10", "price": 19.431999, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 11.141615828278189, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 87, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 18.191999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.3812271707095185, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 94, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 19.16, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 5.321026018086308, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 99, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 19.021999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -0.7202557411273443, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 19.021999, "confirmation": 19.16, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 24 }, { "id": "tactical-bearish-abc", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 67, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 18.19; Wave B 18.25.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 0.97; C length 0.77.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.80\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 87, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 18.191999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.3812271707095185, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 94, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 19.16, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 5.321026018086308, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 96, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 18.247999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -4.759921711899792, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 99, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 19.021999, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 4.241560951422679, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 19.021999, "confirmation": 18.247999, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 51 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 8.0, "primary": null, "candidate_count": 0, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 8.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 5.0, "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 58, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 18.19; Wave 2 19.02.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 14% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 87, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 18.191999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.3812271707095185, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 94, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 19.16, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 5.321026018086308, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 99, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 19.021999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -0.7202557411273443, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 18.191999, "confirmation": 19.16, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 24 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 5.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 3.5, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bearish-abc", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing", "direction": "bearish", "score": 67, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 18.19; Wave B 18.25.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 0.97; C length 0.77.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.80\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 87, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 18.191999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.3812271707095185, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 94, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 19.16, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 5.321026018086308, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 96, "date": "2026-07-17", "price": 18.247999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -4.759921711899792, "weeks": 2, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 99, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 19.021999, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 4.241560951422679, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 19.021999, "confirmation": 18.247999, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 51 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 3.5% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 20, "changes": 5, "observations": 9, "label": "Low" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "wave2_trough", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "confidence": 66, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bullish-wave2", "labels": [ { "index": 87, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 18.191999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.3812271707095185, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 94, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 19.16, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 5.321026018086308, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 99, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 19.021999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -0.7202557411273443, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "notes": [ "Price is above the 30-week trend line.", "Market Activity is positive.", "30-week price rate of change is positive." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": 2.625983355188973, "fair_value_gap": 13.554410844679637, "market_activity": 0.709039, "market_dynamics": -0.65013, "relative_strength": -4.90018, "roc30": 3.922628719261988, "hurst_alignment": 50, "hurst_risk": 50 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as possible wave 2 trough. Price is 2.6% above its 30-week trend. 3 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": 3.933990820675344 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": 2.0165129250241347 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": 3.775226404800888 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": 9.561104711438789 } ], "range": { "high_52": 19.441999, "low_52": 16.666, "position_52": 84.87031155270594, "drawdown": -2.160271688111897 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 16.824287061803282, "average_weekly_range": 1.4915822691976373, "active_drawdown": -2.1099218870894347 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 87, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 18.191999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.3812271707095185, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": { "index": 94, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 19.16, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 5.321026018086308, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": { "index": 87, "date": "2026-05-15", "price": 18.191999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -6.3812271707095185, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bullish structure weakens below", "trend": 18.535266, "fair_value": 16.75144, "trend_gap": 2.625983355188973, "fair_value_gap": 13.554410844679637 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 94, "date": "2026-07-03", "price": 19.16, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 5.321026018086308, "weeks": 7, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 99, "date": "2026-08-07", "price": 19.021999, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -0.7202557411273443, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": -0.7202557411273443, "weeks": 5, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "positive", "value": "2.6% above trend", "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "negative", "value": "Falling", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "neutral", "value": "Mixed", "explanation": "Cycle lengths are not moving in one clear direction." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "negative", "value": "-4.9", "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "positive", "value": "+0.7", "explanation": "Participation is supportive" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "negative", "value": "-0.7", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is weak" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "positive", "value": "+3.9", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive" } ], "positive": 3, "negative": 3, "neutral": 1, "observed": 7, "agreement": 43, "direction": "mixed", "scenario_direction": "bullish" }, "evidence": { "score": 78, "history_score": 38, "indicator_coverage": 99, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 100, "confirmed_pivots": 9 }, "volume_ratio": 0.140096419300342, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 20, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 19, "positive_rate": 63.2, "median_return": 0.77, "bar_width": 3.85, "average_return": 0.96, "best_return": 5.28, "worst_return": -4.44 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 11, "positive_rate": 90.9, "median_return": 4.49, "bar_width": 22.450000000000003, "average_return": 4.29, "best_return": 11.05, "worst_return": -5.82 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 8, "positive_rate": 100.0, "median_return": 7.95, "bar_width": 39.75, "average_return": 8.06, "best_return": 9.87, "worst_return": 6.82 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "triggered", "label": "Triggered", "now": "Possible Wave 2 trough is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is mixed.", "next": "A weekly close through 19.16, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 18.19; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 24, "constructive_count": 13, "constructive_percent": 54, "rising_cycle_count": 8, "rising_cycle_percent": 33, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 696, "positive_rate": 62.4, "median_return": 0.89, "average_return": 0.74, "median_excess_return": 0.03, "excess_observations": 696, "p10": -6.54, "p90": 6.54 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 244, "positive_rate": 71.3, "median_return": 3.44, "average_return": 3.37, "median_excess_return": 1.44, "excess_observations": 244, "p10": -11.5, "p90": 17.53 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 133, "positive_rate": 76.7, "median_return": 5.49, "average_return": 4.99, "median_excess_return": 3.54, "excess_observations": 133, "p10": -16.93, "p90": 26.25 } ], "benchmark": "^SSMI", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 4.363368960328522, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 33, "label": "Watch", "tone": "watch", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 2.6% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 6, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 39, "explanation": "Price is 85% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 11, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 73, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 8, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 50, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 50/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 8, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 80, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has low recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling.", "The primary interpretation has low recent stability." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down." } }, "chart": { "dates": [ "2024-09-13", "2024-09-20", "2024-09-27", "2024-10-04", "2024-10-11", "2024-10-18", "2024-10-25", "2024-11-01", "2024-11-08", "2024-11-15", "2024-11-22", "2024-11-29", "2024-12-06", "2024-12-13", "2024-12-20", "2024-12-27", "2025-01-03", "2025-01-10", "2025-01-17", "2025-01-24", "2025-01-31", "2025-02-07", "2025-02-14", "2025-02-21", "2025-02-28", "2025-03-07", "2025-03-14", "2025-03-21", "2025-03-28", "2025-04-04", "2025-04-11", "2025-04-18", "2025-04-25", "2025-05-02", "2025-05-09", "2025-05-16", "2025-05-23", "2025-05-30", "2025-06-06", "2025-06-13", "2025-06-20", "2025-06-27", "2025-07-04", "2025-07-11", "2025-07-18", "2025-07-25", "2025-08-01", "2025-08-08", "2025-08-15", "2025-08-22", "2025-08-29", "2025-09-05", "2025-09-12", "2025-09-19", "2025-09-26", "2025-10-03", "2025-10-10", "2025-10-17", "2025-10-24", 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