{ "ticker": { "symbol": "6890", "name": "Lai Yih Footwear Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TAI" }, "latest_week": "2026-08-14", "latest_close": 168.5, "latest_open": 175.5, "latest_high": 182.0, "latest_low": 168.0, "bar_count": 112, "analysis_bar_count": 112, "reversal_percent": 16.0, "model": { "version": "ewc-2.1.0", "as_of": "2026-08-14", "price_basis": "weekly OHLCV; Elliott pivots use weekly closes", "wave_method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "cycle_method": "adaptive Hurst-style phasing with nominal harmonic bands, trough spacing, FLD and cyclic trend-line confirmation", "repainting_policy": "only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained" }, "pivots": [ { "index": 41, "date": "2025-04-04", "price": 353.481537, "kind": "high", "move_percent": null, "weeks": 0, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 42, "date": "2025-04-11", "price": 261.631989, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -25.98425614518023, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true }, { "index": 44, 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"primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "A/B/C reset may be completing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 77, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 270.68; Wave B 244.86.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 125.78; C length 76.36.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.61\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 76, "date": "2025-12-05", "price": 270.680176, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 35.40670064935095, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 93, "date": "2026-04-10", "price": 144.904755, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -46.466432399541524, "weeks": 17, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 102, "date": "2026-06-12", "price": 244.85556, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 68.97689796307927, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 111, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 168.5, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -31.18391920526534, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 168.5, "confirmation": 244.85556, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 39 }, "alternates": [ { "id": "primary-bullish-wave2", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave2", "title": "Possible Wave 2 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 63, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 144.90; Wave 2 168.50.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 76% of Wave 1.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 93, "date": "2026-04-10", "price": 144.904755, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -46.466432399541524, "weeks": 17, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 102, "date": "2026-06-12", "price": 244.85556, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 68.97689796307927, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 111, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 168.5, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -31.18391920526534, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": false, "label": "2" } ], "invalidation": 144.904755, "confirmation": 244.85556, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 12 }, { "id": "tactical-bullish-wave4", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave4", "title": "Possible Wave 4 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 80, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 144.90; Wave 2 147.30.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 167.86; Wave 3 244.86.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 167.86; Wave 4 168.50.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 90% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 is 4.25\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 78% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 3w; Wave 4 lasted 9w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 93, "date": "2026-04-10", "price": 144.904755, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -46.466432399541524, "weeks": 17, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 94, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 167.85997, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 15.841588497216678, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 97, "date": "2026-05-08", "price": 147.295929, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -12.250711709289595, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 102, "date": "2026-06-12", "price": 244.85556, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 66.23375925073937, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 111, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 168.5, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -31.18391920526534, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": false, "label": "4" } ], "invalidation": 147.295929, "confirmation": 244.85556, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 49 } ], "degrees": [ { "key": "strategic", "label": "Strategic", "reversal_percent": 24.0, "primary": { "id": "strategic-bullish-abc", "degree": "strategic", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "A/B/C reset may be completing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 77, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 270.68; Wave B 244.86.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 125.78; C length 76.36.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.61\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 76, "date": "2025-12-05", "price": 270.680176, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 35.40670064935095, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 93, "date": "2026-04-10", "price": 144.904755, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -46.466432399541524, "weeks": 17, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 102, "date": "2026-06-12", "price": 244.85556, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 68.97689796307927, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 111, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 168.5, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -31.18391920526534, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 168.5, "confirmation": 244.85556, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent." }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 24.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "primary", "label": "Primary", "reversal_percent": 16.0, "primary": { "id": "primary-bullish-abc", "degree": "primary", "pattern": "correction", "stage": "wave_c", "title": "A/B/C reset may be completing", "direction": "bullish", "score": 77, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 270.68; Wave B 244.86.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave C progresses beyond Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "A length 125.78; C length 76.36.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave C is 0.61\u00d7 Wave A.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 76, "date": "2025-12-05", "price": 270.680176, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 35.40670064935095, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 93, "date": "2026-04-10", "price": 144.904755, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -46.466432399541524, "weeks": 17, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 102, "date": "2026-06-12", "price": 244.85556, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 68.97689796307927, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 111, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 168.5, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -31.18391920526534, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "invalidation": 168.5, "confirmation": 244.85556, "forming": true, "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.", "evidence_weight": 39 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 16.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." }, { "key": "tactical", "label": "Tactical", "reversal_percent": 11.2, "primary": { "id": "tactical-bullish-wave4", "degree": "tactical", "pattern": "impulse", "stage": "wave4", "title": "Possible Wave 4 trough", "direction": "bullish", "score": 80, "rules": [ { "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin", "passed": true, "detail": "Origin 144.90; Wave 2 147.30.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 167.86; Wave 3 244.86.", "hard": true }, { "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 167.86; Wave 4 168.50.", "hard": true } ], "guidelines": [ { "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate", "passed": true, "detail": "Retraced 90% of Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible", "passed": false, "detail": "Wave 3 is 4.25\u00d7 Wave 1.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate", "passed": false, "detail": "Retraced 78% of Wave 3.", "hard": false }, { "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation", "passed": true, "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 3w; Wave 4 lasted 9w.", "hard": false } ], "labels": [ { "index": 93, "date": "2026-04-10", "price": 144.904755, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -46.466432399541524, "weeks": 17, "confirmed": true, "label": "0" }, { "index": 94, "date": "2026-04-17", "price": 167.85997, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 15.841588497216678, "weeks": 1, "confirmed": true, "label": "1" }, { "index": 97, "date": "2026-05-08", "price": 147.295929, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -12.250711709289595, "weeks": 3, "confirmed": true, "label": "2" }, { "index": 102, "date": "2026-06-12", "price": 244.85556, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 66.23375925073937, "weeks": 5, "confirmed": true, "label": "3" }, { "index": 111, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 168.5, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -31.18391920526534, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": false, "label": "4" } ], "invalidation": 147.295929, "confirmation": 244.85556, "forming": true, "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.", "evidence_weight": 49 }, "candidate_count": 2, "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 11.2% weekly closing-price reversal threshold." } ], "stability": { "score": 84, "changes": 1, "observations": 9, "label": "High" }, "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration", "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities." }, "scenario": { "setup": "abc_reset", "title": "A/B/C reset may be completing", "direction": "bullish", "confidence": 53, "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.", "candidate_id": "primary-bullish-abc", "labels": [ { "index": 76, "date": "2025-12-05", "price": 270.680176, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 35.40670064935095, "weeks": 12, "confirmed": true, "label": "5" }, { "index": 93, "date": "2026-04-10", "price": 144.904755, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -46.466432399541524, "weeks": 17, "confirmed": true, "label": "A" }, { "index": 102, "date": "2026-06-12", "price": 244.85556, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 68.97689796307927, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": true, "label": "B" }, { "index": 111, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 168.5, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -31.18391920526534, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": false, "label": "C" } ], "notes": [ "Close remains below Fair Value, leaving valuation room if the turn holds." ], "metrics": { "trend_gap": -7.827806917471121, "fair_value_gap": -37.44035996453028, "market_activity": -22.737727, "market_dynamics": -0.043409, "relative_strength": -42.410481, "roc30": -29.672985727672952, "hurst_alignment": 50, "hurst_risk": 50 } }, "detail": { "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as a/b/c reset may be completing. Price is 7.8% below its 30-week trend. 0 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.", "returns": [ { "weeks": 4, "label": "4-week return", "value": -2.601156069364162 }, { "weeks": 13, "label": "13-week return", "value": 6.446630300201988 }, { "weeks": 26, "label": "26-week return", "value": -14.480988085750097 }, { "weeks": 52, "label": "52-week return", "value": -30.505257790725604 } ], "range": { "high_52": 287.418332, "low_52": 135.818317, "position_52": 21.557836257470022, "drawdown": -41.3746510782757 }, "risk": { "annualised_volatility": 79.1150571242959, "average_weekly_range": 12.782945847669444, "active_drawdown": -63.309558878316906 }, "levels": { "support": { "index": 93, "date": "2026-04-10", "price": 144.904755, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -46.466432399541524, "weeks": 17, "confirmed": true }, "resistance": { "index": 102, "date": "2026-06-12", "price": 244.85556, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 68.97689796307927, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": true }, "decisive": { "index": 93, "date": "2026-04-10", "price": 144.904755, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -46.466432399541524, "weeks": 17, "confirmed": true }, "decisive_label": "Bullish structure weakens below", "trend": 182.810015, "fair_value": 269.342982, "trend_gap": -7.827806917471121, "fair_value_gap": -37.44035996453028 }, "active_swing": { "from": { "index": 102, "date": "2026-06-12", "price": 244.85556, "kind": "high", "move_percent": 68.97689796307927, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": true }, "to": { "index": 111, "date": "2026-08-14", "price": 168.5, "kind": "low", "move_percent": -31.18391920526534, "weeks": 9, "confirmed": false }, "move_percent": -31.18391920526534, "weeks": 9, "status": "Forming" }, "confirmation": { "rows": [ { "label": "Trend", "status": "negative", "value": "7.8% below trend", "explanation": "Price remains below its 30-week trend." }, { "label": "Cycle pressure", "status": "negative", "value": "Falling", "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising." }, { "label": "Cycle alignment", "status": "neutral", "value": "Mixed", "explanation": "Cycle lengths are not moving in one clear direction." }, { "label": "Relative strength", "status": "negative", "value": "-42.4", "explanation": "Underperforming its benchmark" }, { "label": "Market activity", "status": "negative", "value": "-22.7", "explanation": "Participation is weak" }, { "label": "Market dynamics", "status": "negative", "value": "-0.0", "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is weak" }, { "label": "30-week momentum", "status": "negative", "value": "-29.7", "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is negative" } ], "positive": 0, "negative": 6, "neutral": 1, "observed": 7, "agreement": 86, "direction": "defensive", "scenario_direction": "bullish" }, "evidence": { "score": 80, "history_score": 43, "indicator_coverage": 100, "structure_score": 100, "weekly_observations": 112, "confirmed_pivots": 7 }, "volume_ratio": 24.737930539574535, "historical": { "available": true, "matches": 30, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 29, "positive_rate": 48.3, "median_return": -1.98, "bar_width": 9.9, "average_return": 3.32, "best_return": 57.47, "worst_return": -21.12 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 26, "positive_rate": 69.2, "median_return": 13.01, "bar_width": 65.05, "average_return": 10.87, "best_return": 57.54, "worst_return": -34.52 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 13, "positive_rate": 0.0, "median_return": -26.51, "bar_width": 100.0, "average_return": -25.04, "best_return": -11.35, "worst_return": -34.66 } ], "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast." }, "lifecycle": { "state": "setup", "label": "Setup in timing window", "now": "A/B/C reset may be completing is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is mixed.", "next": "A weekly close through 244.86, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.", "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 168.50; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.", "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.", "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation." }, "peer_evidence": { "available": true, "peers": 24, "constructive_count": 15, "constructive_percent": 62, "rising_cycle_count": 15, "rising_cycle_percent": 62, "horizons": [ { "weeks": 4, "observations": 173, "positive_rate": 50.9, "median_return": 0.24, "average_return": 0.78, "median_excess_return": -0.77, "excess_observations": 173, "p10": -9.36, "p90": 9.44 }, { "weeks": 13, "observations": 102, "positive_rate": 48.0, "median_return": -0.55, "average_return": 1.06, "median_excess_return": -4.24, "excess_observations": 102, "p10": -15.08, "p90": 19.98 }, { "weeks": 26, "observations": 77, "positive_rate": 44.2, "median_return": -1.3, "average_return": 1.6, "median_excess_return": -10.1, "excess_observations": 77, "p10": -17.48, "p90": 24.33 } ], "benchmark": "^TWII", "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count." }, "event_positioning": { "earnings_date": null, "earnings_weeks": null, "options_available": false, "options_direction": null, "options_conviction": null, "expected_move": null, "invalidation_distance": 0.0, "collision": false, "flags": [], "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure." }, "downside_vulnerability": { "score": 21, "label": "Contained", "tone": "contained", "components": [ { "key": "wave", "label": "Wave maturity", "score": 0, "maximum": 25, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "The primary count is not presently a mature Wave 5." }, { "key": "extension", "label": "Trend extension", "score": 0, "maximum": 20, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 7.8% below the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability." }, { "key": "range", "label": "Range position", "score": 0, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "Price is 22% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range." }, { "key": "cycle", "label": "Cycle rollover", "score": 11, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 73, "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling." }, { "key": "hurst", "label": "Multi-cycle risk", "score": 8, "maximum": 15, "bar_width": 50, "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 50/100." }, { "key": "stability", "label": "Count instability", "score": 2, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 16, "explanation": "The primary interpretation has high recent stability." }, { "key": "event", "label": "Event proximity", "score": 0, "maximum": 10, "bar_width": 0, "explanation": "No upcoming stored earnings date is available." } ], "warnings": [ "Medium-term cycle pressure is falling." ], "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. 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