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    ]
  },
  "structure": {
    "primary": {
      "id": "primary-bullish-wave5",
      "degree": "primary",
      "pattern": "impulse",
      "stage": "wave5",
      "title": "Five-wave advance mature",
      "direction": "bullish",
      "score": 95,
      "rules": [
        {
          "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Origin 483.40; Wave 2 488.98.",
          "hard": true
        },
        {
          "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Wave 1 521.30; Wave 3 595.30.",
          "hard": true
        },
        {
          "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 521.30; Wave 4 551.45.",
          "hard": true
        },
        {
          "label": "Wave 3 is not the shortest motive wave",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Motive lengths: 37.90, 106.32, 37.69.",
          "hard": true
        },
        {
          "label": "Wave 5 makes motive progress",
          "passed": false,
          "detail": "Wave 3 595.30; Wave 5 589.14.",
          "hard": false
        }
      ],
      "guidelines": [
        {
          "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Retraced 85% of Wave 1.",
          "hard": false
        },
        {
          "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Wave 3 is 2.81\u00d7 Wave 1.",
          "hard": false
        },
        {
          "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Retraced 41% of Wave 3.",
          "hard": false
        },
        {
          "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation",
          "passed": true,
          "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 9w; Wave 4 lasted 5w.",
          "hard": false
        }
      ],
      "labels": [
        {
          "index": 247,
          "date": "2026-03-27",
          "price": 483.404839,
          "kind": "low",
          "move_percent": -16.326433949129832,
          "weeks": 13,
          "confirmed": true,
          "label": "0"
        },
        {
          "index": 250,
          "date": "2026-04-17",
          "price": 521.3,
          "kind": "high",
          "move_percent": 7.839218382338116,
          "weeks": 3,
          "confirmed": true,
          "label": "1"
        },
        {
          "index": 259,
          "date": "2026-06-19",
          "price": 488.976908,
          "kind": "low",
          "move_percent": -6.200478035680026,
          "weeks": 9,
          "confirmed": true,
          "label": "2"
        },
        {
          "index": 269,
          "date": "2026-08-28",
          "price": 595.3,
          "kind": "high",
          "move_percent": 21.743990413551387,
          "weeks": 10,
          "confirmed": true,
          "label": "3"
        },
        {
          "index": 274,
          "date": "2026-10-02",
          "price": 551.445664,
          "kind": "low",
          "move_percent": -7.366762304720307,
          "weeks": 5,
          "confirmed": true,
          "label": "4"
        },
        {
          "index": 275,
          "date": "2026-10-09",
          "price": 589.14,
          "kind": "high",
          "move_percent": 6.83554853375364,
          "weeks": 1,
          "confirmed": false,
          "label": "5"
        }
      ],
      "invalidation": 551.445664,
      "confirmation": 589.14,
      "forming": true,
      "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
      "evidence_weight": 90
    },
    "alternates": [
      {
        "id": "primary-bearish-wave2",
        "degree": "primary",
        "pattern": "impulse",
        "stage": "wave2",
        "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest",
        "direction": "bearish",
        "score": 63,
        "rules": [
          {
            "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Origin 595.30; Wave 2 589.14.",
            "hard": true
          }
        ],
        "guidelines": [
          {
            "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Retraced 86% of Wave 1.",
            "hard": false
          }
        ],
        "labels": [
          {
            "index": 269,
            "date": "2026-08-28",
            "price": 595.3,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 21.743990413551387,
            "weeks": 10,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "0"
          },
          {
            "index": 274,
            "date": "2026-10-02",
            "price": 551.445664,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -7.366762304720307,
            "weeks": 5,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "1"
          },
          {
            "index": 275,
            "date": "2026-10-09",
            "price": 589.14,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 6.83554853375364,
            "weeks": 1,
            "confirmed": false,
            "label": "2"
          }
        ],
        "invalidation": 595.3,
        "confirmation": 551.445664,
        "forming": true,
        "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
        "evidence_weight": 6
      },
      {
        "id": "primary-bearish-abc",
        "degree": "primary",
        "pattern": "correction",
        "stage": "wave_c",
        "title": "Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing",
        "direction": "bearish",
        "score": 58,
        "rules": [
          {
            "label": "Wave B protects the correction origin",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "Origin 488.98; Wave B 551.45.",
            "hard": true
          },
          {
            "label": "Wave C moves in the direction of Wave A",
            "passed": true,
            "detail": "A length 106.32; C length 37.69.",
            "hard": true
          }
        ],
        "guidelines": [
          {
            "label": "Wave C is proportionate to Wave A",
            "passed": false,
            "detail": "Wave C is 0.35\u00d7 Wave A.",
            "hard": false
          }
        ],
        "labels": [
          {
            "index": 259,
            "date": "2026-06-19",
            "price": 488.976908,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -6.200478035680026,
            "weeks": 9,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "5"
          },
          {
            "index": 269,
            "date": "2026-08-28",
            "price": 595.3,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 21.743990413551387,
            "weeks": 10,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "A"
          },
          {
            "index": 274,
            "date": "2026-10-02",
            "price": 551.445664,
            "kind": "low",
            "move_percent": -7.366762304720307,
            "weeks": 5,
            "confirmed": true,
            "label": "B"
          },
          {
            "index": 275,
            "date": "2026-10-09",
            "price": 589.14,
            "kind": "high",
            "move_percent": 6.83554853375364,
            "weeks": 1,
            "confirmed": false,
            "label": "C"
          }
        ],
        "invalidation": 589.14,
        "confirmation": 551.445664,
        "forming": true,
        "explanation": "A three-leg corrective interpretation whose Wave B and Wave C geometry is internally consistent.",
        "evidence_weight": 4
      }
    ],
    "degrees": [
      {
        "key": "strategic",
        "label": "Strategic",
        "reversal_percent": 9.623087249713542,
        "primary": {
          "id": "strategic-bearish-wave2",
          "degree": "strategic",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave2",
          "title": "Possible bearish Wave 2 crest",
          "direction": "bearish",
          "score": 63,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 596.22; Wave 2 589.14.",
              "hard": true
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 94% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 216,
              "date": "2025-08-22",
              "price": 596.221869,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 12.532698590656079,
              "weeks": 9,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 247,
              "date": "2026-03-27",
              "price": 483.404839,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -18.92198791520678,
              "weeks": 31,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 275,
              "date": "2026-10-09",
              "price": 589.14,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 21.87300425430785,
              "weeks": 28,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "2"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 596.221869,
          "confirmation": 483.404839,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements."
        },
        "candidate_count": 1,
        "explanation": "Strategic degree uses a 9.6% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "primary",
        "label": "Primary",
        "reversal_percent": 6.014429531070964,
        "primary": {
          "id": "primary-bullish-wave5",
          "degree": "primary",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave5",
          "title": "Five-wave advance mature",
          "direction": "bullish",
          "score": 95,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 483.40; Wave 2 488.98.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 1 521.30; Wave 3 595.30.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 521.30; Wave 4 551.45.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 is not the shortest motive wave",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Motive lengths: 37.90, 106.32, 37.69.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 5 makes motive progress",
              "passed": false,
              "detail": "Wave 3 595.30; Wave 5 589.14.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 85% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 3 is 2.81\u00d7 Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 41% of Wave 3.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 9w; Wave 4 lasted 5w.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 247,
              "date": "2026-03-27",
              "price": 483.404839,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -16.326433949129832,
              "weeks": 13,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 250,
              "date": "2026-04-17",
              "price": 521.3,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 7.839218382338116,
              "weeks": 3,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 259,
              "date": "2026-06-19",
              "price": 488.976908,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -6.200478035680026,
              "weeks": 9,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "2"
            },
            {
              "index": 269,
              "date": "2026-08-28",
              "price": 595.3,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 21.743990413551387,
              "weeks": 10,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "3"
            },
            {
              "index": 274,
              "date": "2026-10-02",
              "price": 551.445664,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -7.366762304720307,
              "weeks": 5,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "4"
            },
            {
              "index": 275,
              "date": "2026-10-09",
              "price": 589.14,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 6.83554853375364,
              "weeks": 1,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "5"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 551.445664,
          "confirmation": 589.14,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements.",
          "evidence_weight": 90
        },
        "candidate_count": 3,
        "explanation": "Primary degree uses a 6.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      },
      {
        "key": "tactical",
        "label": "Tactical",
        "reversal_percent": 4.210100671749674,
        "primary": {
          "id": "tactical-bullish-wave5",
          "degree": "tactical",
          "pattern": "impulse",
          "stage": "wave5",
          "title": "Five-wave advance mature",
          "direction": "bullish",
          "score": 95,
          "rules": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 protects the Wave 1 origin",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Origin 483.40; Wave 2 488.98.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 exceeds Wave 1",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 1 521.30; Wave 3 595.30.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 4 does not overlap Wave 1",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 1 boundary 521.30; Wave 4 551.45.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 is not the shortest motive wave",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Motive lengths: 37.90, 106.32, 37.69.",
              "hard": true
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 5 makes motive progress",
              "passed": false,
              "detail": "Wave 3 595.30; Wave 5 589.14.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "guidelines": [
            {
              "label": "Wave 2 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 85% of Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 3 extension is plausible",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 3 is 2.81\u00d7 Wave 1.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Wave 4 retracement is proportionate",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Retraced 41% of Wave 3.",
              "hard": false
            },
            {
              "label": "Waves 2 and 4 show temporal alternation",
              "passed": true,
              "detail": "Wave 2 lasted 9w; Wave 4 lasted 5w.",
              "hard": false
            }
          ],
          "labels": [
            {
              "index": 247,
              "date": "2026-03-27",
              "price": 483.404839,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -11.754200390469698,
              "weeks": 7,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "0"
            },
            {
              "index": 250,
              "date": "2026-04-17",
              "price": 521.3,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 7.839218382338116,
              "weeks": 3,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "1"
            },
            {
              "index": 259,
              "date": "2026-06-19",
              "price": 488.976908,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -6.200478035680026,
              "weeks": 9,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "2"
            },
            {
              "index": 269,
              "date": "2026-08-28",
              "price": 595.3,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 21.743990413551387,
              "weeks": 10,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "3"
            },
            {
              "index": 274,
              "date": "2026-10-02",
              "price": 551.445664,
              "kind": "low",
              "move_percent": -7.366762304720307,
              "weeks": 5,
              "confirmed": true,
              "label": "4"
            },
            {
              "index": 275,
              "date": "2026-10-09",
              "price": 589.14,
              "kind": "high",
              "move_percent": 6.83554853375364,
              "weeks": 1,
              "confirmed": false,
              "label": "5"
            }
          ],
          "invalidation": 551.445664,
          "confirmation": 589.14,
          "forming": true,
          "explanation": "A rule-valid motive interpretation. Fibonacci proportions and alternation improve the fit but are guidelines, not hard requirements."
        },
        "candidate_count": 3,
        "explanation": "Tactical degree uses a 4.2% weekly closing-price reversal threshold."
      }
    ],
    "stability": {
      "score": 68,
      "changes": 2,
      "observations": 9,
      "label": "Moderate"
    },
    "method": "constraint-based Elliott candidate enumeration",
    "explanation": "Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities."
  },
  "scenario": {
    "setup": "wave5_risk",
    "title": "Five-wave advance mature",
    "direction": "risk",
    "confidence": 92,
    "score_explanation": "Rules agreement plus independent cycle, trend and participation confirmation; it is not a probability.",
    "candidate_id": "primary-bullish-wave5",
    "labels": [
      {
        "index": 247,
        "date": "2026-03-27",
        "price": 483.404839,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -16.326433949129832,
        "weeks": 13,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "0"
      },
      {
        "index": 250,
        "date": "2026-04-17",
        "price": 521.3,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 7.839218382338116,
        "weeks": 3,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "1"
      },
      {
        "index": 259,
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "price": 488.976908,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -6.200478035680026,
        "weeks": 9,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "2"
      },
      {
        "index": 269,
        "date": "2026-08-28",
        "price": 595.3,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 21.743990413551387,
        "weeks": 10,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "3"
      },
      {
        "index": 274,
        "date": "2026-10-02",
        "price": 551.445664,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -7.366762304720307,
        "weeks": 5,
        "confirmed": true,
        "label": "4"
      },
      {
        "index": 275,
        "date": "2026-10-09",
        "price": 589.14,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 6.83554853375364,
        "weeks": 1,
        "confirmed": false,
        "label": "5"
      }
    ],
    "notes": [
      "Hurst rhythm shows a falling stack.",
      "Hurst risk alignment is elevated."
    ],
    "metrics": {
      "trend_gap": 11.241578790244098,
      "fair_value_gap": 15.844350842778766,
      "market_activity": 33.908487,
      "market_dynamics": 0.433886,
      "relative_strength": 0.114095,
      "roc30": 18.507969338085534,
      "hurst_alignment": 25,
      "hurst_risk": 75
    }
  },
  "detail": {
    "summary": "The closing-price swing map is classified as five-wave advance mature. Price is 11.2% above its 30-week trend. 5 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.",
    "returns": [
      {
        "weeks": 4,
        "label": "4-week return",
        "value": 3.6578295759994712
      },
      {
        "weeks": 13,
        "label": "13-week return",
        "value": 11.846451759881532
      },
      {
        "weeks": 26,
        "label": "26-week return",
        "value": 18.14462760197328
      },
      {
        "weeks": 52,
        "label": "52-week return",
        "value": 6.021728612858846
      }
    ],
    "range": {
      "high_52": 601.23,
      "low_52": 463.748858,
      "position_52": 91.20606664730786,
      "drawdown": -2.0108777007135425
    },
    "risk": {
      "annualised_volatility": 21.352566496986412,
      "average_weekly_range": 3.9550874117438184,
      "active_drawdown": -1.1877908825917258
    },
    "levels": {
      "support": {
        "index": 274,
        "date": "2026-10-02",
        "price": 551.445664,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -7.366762304720307,
        "weeks": 5,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "resistance": {
        "index": 269,
        "date": "2026-08-28",
        "price": 595.3,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 21.743990413551387,
        "weeks": 10,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "decisive": {
        "index": 269,
        "date": "2026-08-28",
        "price": 595.3,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 21.743990413551387,
        "weeks": 10,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "decisive_label": "Bearish structure weakens above",
      "trend": 529.604134,
      "fair_value": 508.5617,
      "trend_gap": 11.241578790244098,
      "fair_value_gap": 15.844350842778766
    },
    "active_swing": {
      "from": {
        "index": 274,
        "date": "2026-10-02",
        "price": 551.445664,
        "kind": "low",
        "move_percent": -7.366762304720307,
        "weeks": 5,
        "confirmed": true
      },
      "to": {
        "index": 275,
        "date": "2026-10-09",
        "price": 589.14,
        "kind": "high",
        "move_percent": 6.83554853375364,
        "weeks": 1,
        "confirmed": false
      },
      "move_percent": 6.83554853375364,
      "weeks": 1,
      "status": "Forming"
    },
    "confirmation": {
      "rows": [
        {
          "label": "Trend",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "11.2% above trend",
          "explanation": "Price is holding above its 30-week trend."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle pressure",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "Cresting",
          "explanation": "The medium-term pressure curve is not rising."
        },
        {
          "label": "Cycle alignment",
          "status": "negative",
          "value": "Falling Stack",
          "explanation": "Several cycle lengths are weakening together."
        },
        {
          "label": "Relative strength",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+0.1",
          "explanation": "Outperforming its benchmark"
        },
        {
          "label": "Market activity",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+33.9",
          "explanation": "Participation is supportive"
        },
        {
          "label": "Market dynamics",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+0.4",
          "explanation": "Price and volume behaviour is supportive"
        },
        {
          "label": "30-week momentum",
          "status": "positive",
          "value": "+18.5",
          "explanation": "Medium-term momentum is positive"
        }
      ],
      "positive": 5,
      "negative": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "observed": 7,
      "agreement": 71,
      "direction": "constructive",
      "scenario_direction": "risk"
    },
    "evidence": {
      "score": 100,
      "history_score": 100,
      "indicator_coverage": 100,
      "structure_score": 100,
      "weekly_observations": 276,
      "confirmed_pivots": 30
    },
    "volume_ratio": 79.40555655524423,
    "historical": {
      "available": true,
      "matches": 97,
      "horizons": [
        {
          "weeks": 4,
          "observations": 97,
          "positive_rate": 50.5,
          "median_return": 0.06,
          "bar_width": 0.3,
          "average_return": 0.35,
          "best_return": 11.51,
          "worst_return": -10.42
        },
        {
          "weeks": 13,
          "observations": 96,
          "positive_rate": 65.6,
          "median_return": 1.76,
          "bar_width": 8.8,
          "average_return": 1.95,
          "best_return": 13.8,
          "worst_return": -9.66
        },
        {
          "weeks": 26,
          "observations": 96,
          "positive_rate": 86.5,
          "median_return": 7.33,
          "bar_width": 36.65,
          "average_return": 6.59,
          "best_return": 22.0,
          "worst_return": -14.79
        }
      ],
      "note": "Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast."
    },
    "lifecycle": {
      "state": "mature",
      "label": "Mature / manage risk",
      "now": "Five-wave advance mature is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is falling stack.",
      "next": "Watch for a confirmed weekly reversal, cycle rollover, or deterioration in relative strength and participation; a mature count is a risk-management state, not a fresh bullish trigger.",
      "wrong": "The underlying directional structure fails beyond 551.45; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.",
      "risk": "The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.",
      "explanation": "The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation."
    },
    "peer_evidence": {
      "available": true,
      "peers": 24,
      "constructive_count": 19,
      "constructive_percent": 79,
      "rising_cycle_count": 2,
      "rising_cycle_percent": 8,
      "horizons": [
        {
          "weeks": 4,
          "observations": 939,
          "positive_rate": 59.9,
          "median_return": 1.61,
          "average_return": 1.42,
          "median_excess_return": 0.56,
          "excess_observations": 939,
          "p10": -7.54,
          "p90": 10.11
        },
        {
          "weeks": 13,
          "observations": 327,
          "positive_rate": 64.2,
          "median_return": 5.16,
          "average_return": 4.91,
          "median_excess_return": 1.28,
          "excess_observations": 327,
          "p10": -9.1,
          "p90": 20.0
        },
        {
          "weeks": 26,
          "observations": 179,
          "positive_rate": 74.9,
          "median_return": 11.37,
          "average_return": 11.04,
          "median_excess_return": 2.8,
          "excess_observations": 179,
          "p10": -9.91,
          "p90": 31.71
        }
      ],
      "benchmark": "SPY",
      "explanation": "Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count."
    },
    "event_positioning": {
      "earnings_date": "2026-10-29",
      "earnings_weeks": 3,
      "options_available": true,
      "options_direction": "mixed",
      "options_conviction": 14.04,
      "expected_move": 3.63649282,
      "invalidation_distance": 6.398196693485423,
      "collision": false,
      "flags": [
        "Earnings are due in about 3 weeks."
      ],
      "explanation": "Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure."
    },
    "downside_vulnerability": {
      "score": 77,
      "label": "High vulnerability",
      "tone": "high",
      "components": [
        {
          "key": "wave",
          "label": "Wave maturity",
          "score": 25,
          "maximum": 25,
          "bar_width": 100,
          "explanation": "A forming Wave 5 is mature structure: upside can continue, but reward-to-risk is usually less forgiving."
        },
        {
          "key": "extension",
          "label": "Trend extension",
          "score": 8,
          "maximum": 20,
          "bar_width": 41,
          "explanation": "Price is 11.2% above the 30-week trend; large positive gaps increase snap-back vulnerability."
        },
        {
          "key": "range",
          "label": "Range position",
          "score": 10,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 65,
          "explanation": "Price is 91% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range."
        },
        {
          "key": "cycle",
          "label": "Cycle rollover",
          "score": 15,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 100,
          "explanation": "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting."
        },
        {
          "key": "hurst",
          "label": "Multi-cycle risk",
          "score": 11,
          "maximum": 15,
          "bar_width": 75,
          "explanation": "Hurst risk alignment is 75/100."
        },
        {
          "key": "stability",
          "label": "Count instability",
          "score": 3,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 32,
          "explanation": "The primary interpretation has moderate recent stability."
        },
        {
          "key": "event",
          "label": "Event proximity",
          "score": 5,
          "maximum": 10,
          "bar_width": 50,
          "explanation": "Earnings are about 3 week(s) away."
        }
      ],
      "warnings": [
        "A forming Wave 5 is mature structure: upside can continue, but reward-to-risk is usually less forgiving.",
        "Price is 91% of the way through its 52-week low-to-high range.",
        "Medium-term cycle pressure is cresting.",
        "Hurst risk alignment is 75/100."
      ],
      "explanation": "This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down."
    }
  },
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